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Please read this peon's analysis of our Saints

this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; I got this off the other Saints' forum and all I could say is wow... this analysis is from Football Prospectus 2005. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 Projection: 8-8, with a 41% chance of being above .500. The Saints are the epitome of ...

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Old 08-04-2005, 05:16 PM   #1
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Please read this peon's analysis of our Saints

I got this off the other Saints' forum and all I could say is wow... this analysis is from Football Prospectus 2005.

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2005 Projection: 8-8, with a 41% chance of being above .500.

The Saints are the epitome of mediocrity; the only standout player on offense or defense is Joe Horn, who is aging. The special teams unit is, however, very good.

The win streak was a bad thing for the Saints, as it keeps them from being blown up and starting over. The Saints fail to make sufficient roster moves to take a big leap forward, instead believing that they're chronic underachievers that will put it all together soon. They think individual statistics = team success, but that's only true in fantasy football.

Aaron Brooks puts up flashy TD and yards numbers, but also bad completion and turnover numbers. He's not a star, nor is he bad: he's average.

McAllister is another fantasy football all-star that's overrated; lots of yards and TDs, but he's also one of the worst rbs in the league at gaining consistent yardage. Deuce is the best example of a boom-or-bust back that either breaks one long or gets stuffed.

However, the real problem of the team is defense. The secondary should be better thanks to Mike McKenzie and Fakhir Brown starting the whole time. Fred Thomas was really bad - QBs were picking on him and it resulted in Tebucky Jones making a lot of tackles downfield. Tebucky --> Smith should help the D as well. The front 7 should continue to struggle as the only solid contributors are Charles Grant and Courtney Watson.

The improvement last year in fumbles lost was due to luck; whether the offense recovers a fumble is nearly a 50/50 proposition, but the Saints recovered 59% of their fumbles. This should get closer to 47%.

The offensive line should be better with Jamaal Brown and Jermane Mayberry.

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#1 The only standout player on defense and offense is Joe Horn? Are you frickin' kidding me? Charles Grant, Darren Howard, Dwight Smith, M&M, LaCharles Bentley ring a bell? And so what if Horn's aging... he's still producing ProBowl numbers. Look at Jimmy Smith and Rod Smith's production and their age.

#2 I thought the signing of Dwight Smith and the resigning of all our star players was outstanding moves. We are underachievers but the moves we made are showing that we are moving in the right direction. Why would we want to blow up the team and start over? Isn't that an expansion team?

#3 Okay... as of right now, he's probably in the middle of the pack. He does have bad turnover problems, but he's completion numbers are hovering around 60% percent. I hope AB leads this team to the playoffs this year to make this turd look like a fool.

#4 Deuce an over-rated back? Eat lard and watch some more football tard. How is anyone writing this crap become a sports writer? His career yards per carry is 4.4. How is that not consistent yardage?

#5 The only solid contributors to the defense was Grant and Watson? Watson did not play well last year and once again... does the name Darren Howard ring a bell? Colby did a fine job at the end of the season as well as the other LB's.

#6 59% compared to 47%. That's a big difference and improvement. Why does it have to be luck? Maybe they've gotten better? I've saw us practicing drills recovering fumbles last year... I'm pretty sure the practice they put out helped.

#7 Well aren't you a genius? I'm amazed he put two and two together.


I would like to send an application to where he works at please. I can write garbage like that also.
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Old 08-04-2005, 05:25 PM   #2
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Other than the Deuce comment, he seems to be on par with what you would expect outsiders (i.e. non-Saints fans) to say. Have we given any other reason over the past 4 seasons for them to think otherwise??
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Old 08-04-2005, 05:27 PM   #3
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RE: Please read this peon

The Saints are the epitome of mediocrity;
True.

the only standout player on offense or defense is Joe Horn, who is aging.
Blatantly false.

The special teams unit is, however, very good.
Uh, they're good, not very good, but OK.

The win streak was a bad thing for the Saints, as it keeps them from being blown up and starting over. The Saints fail to make sufficient roster moves to take a big leap forward, instead believing that they're chronic underachievers that will put it all together soon. They think individual statistics = team success, but that's only true in fantasy football.
This is partially true. Some of it is opinion and may be right or wrong, but the part about believing chronic underacheivers will finally put it together is true. No major roster moves - no blockbusters, but significant moves I think. They are certainly wowwed by individual performances.

Aaron Brooks puts up flashy TD and yards numbers, but also bad completion and turnover numbers. He's not a star, nor is he bad: he's average.
True

McAllister is another fantasy football all-star that's overrated; lots of yards and TDs, but he's also one of the worst rbs in the league at gaining consistent yardage. Deuce is the best example of a boom-or-bust back that either breaks one long or gets stuffed.
False. Maybe last year, when the line sucked and he was hurt. Not two years ago when he averaged over 100 yards for 9 straight games. Whatever, man, you're off on that.

However, the real problem of the team is defense. The secondary should be better thanks to Mike McKenzie and Fakhir Brown starting the whole time. Fred Thomas was really bad - QBs were picking on him and it resulted in Tebucky Jones making a lot of tackles downfield. Tebucky --> Smith should help the D as well.
True.

The front 7 should continue to struggle as the only solid contributors are Charles Grant and Courtney Watson.
False, as to contributors.

The improvement last year in fumbles lost was due to luck; whether the offense recovers a fumble is nearly a 50/50 proposition, but the Saints recovered 59% of their fumbles. This should get closer to 47%.

The offensive line should be better with Jamaal Brown and Jermane Mayberry.
True.
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Old 08-04-2005, 05:39 PM   #4
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The Saints are the epitome of mediocrity
Yep,true. But you can do worse than mediocrity. Many teams would give their left nuts to be in our position. But it would be cool to be a premier team.



the only standout player on offense or defense is Joe Horn, who is aging.
I consider Deuce a standout. Where several defensive players are near and dear to our hearts, none are standouts outside the Saints fan base.



The win streak was a bad thing for the Saints, as it keeps them from being blown up and starting over.
Could be true. The jury is out on this one. Mediocre/slightly above par seasons tend to keep owners, staff and fans hanging on to next year. Not necessarily a bad thing. Who wants to give up and start over? Heck, look at the Dolphins. At least the Saints have something to work with. I suspect the "starting over" noted above would include a coaching change. I'm happy we had the win streak, hope we can build on it.



They think individual statistics = team success, but that's only true in fantasy football.
Several of those "in the know" have said that until the Saints are "Team" instead of "Me", they won't get to the promised land. This is a point that can't be dismissed, regardless of where you point the finger of blame. There's something not "meshing" in this regard with the Saints. I'm not sure what the answer is. But we better get it. Ya know?


Aaron Brooks puts up flashy TD and yards numbers, but also bad completion and turnover numbers. He's not a star, nor is he bad: he's average
Yep. But he's ours for now. Possibly for a few years.



McAllister is another fantasy football all-star that's overrated; lots of yards and TDs, but he's also one of the worst rbs in the league at gaining consistent yardage
From a fantasy standpoint, this is true. Deuce fantasy owners poke their chests out a week or two then put a gun to their head the next.


However, the real problem of the team is defense
Thank you.


The offensive line should be better with Jamaal Brown and Jermane Mayberry
That would be great!





8)
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Old 08-05-2005, 10:40 AM   #5
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The improvement last year in fumbles lost was due to luck; whether the offense recovers a fumble is nearly a 50/50 proposition, but the Saints recovered 59% of their fumbles. This should get closer to 47%.
This alone shows how uniformed and biased against the saints he is. He states that a fumble recovery is a 50/50 proposition, that the Saints were just lucky to have recovered 59% and these facts together somehow mean that they should recover less than half (47%) of their fumbles next year. How does he derive that?
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Old 08-05-2005, 10:44 AM   #6
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Law of averages maybe? *insert shoulder shrugging smiley here*

IF you look at it from his angle, which is skewed but still, Brooks fumbled about just as many times as he did the year before, fact is we recovered WAY more than we did the previous year. So he is saying should the same fumbling rate continue, we may see a 2003 again. I don't know, that's all I could come up with.
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Old 08-05-2005, 12:55 PM   #7
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Frustrating as it may be...I'm in for one more year before we blow it up. I agree that the "we'll get em next year" thing is annoying and kinda makes us fans look stupid.

Anything under 9-7 and playoffs is, to me, a fireable offense for the coaches. I don't care if the entire O line get hurt in the first game.

Put up or shut up and leave Haz. It's time to win some football games. Let's go 5-1/4-2 in the division and finish 10-6 as South champs. I think we can do it. Will we? I lean more toward 8-8 and 2nd place again.
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Old 08-06-2005, 11:57 AM   #8
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I guess, I'm confused as to what people mean by "blow it up". All this ever means to me is dumping a few coaches and a handful of starters. Usually all it does is lower your cap for a few years - it is a hit or miss proposition. Sometimes it is much better to not "blow it up", in fact it is my opinion that it is almost always better to not "blow it up", and merely make one or two signifcant changes - bring in a new QB, a new Coach, or a new RB and things can change in a heartbeat.

Our main problem is failure to make dramatic improvements on defense and perhaps the mediocrity of our QB (perhaps). We still didn't do it this year, though I agree that Smith and McKenzie are a good step. Unless some of these young guys step in at DT and LB, we're going to be the "same ol". This doesn't require "blowing anything up" - it requires better moves to improve our weak units.

"... I was beating them with my eyes the whole game..." - Aaron Brooks :cool:
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Old 08-06-2005, 12:25 PM   #9
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Very Good Point
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