Broncos Release Russell Wilson
 

Re: Broncos Release Russell Wilson
 

For all the talk about the Saints and their cap management, they aren't in that list of single season worst cap hits. That's something, isn't it?

I'm actually a little surprised.

Re: Broncos Release Russell Wilson
 

I’d take Russ over Carr.

Re: Broncos Release Russell Wilson
 

That is a bonkers dead cap number that would make even Mickey fall out of his chair! Betcha Denver wouldn't have been able to stomach this but for the big league cap increase that just occurred.

Re: Broncos Release Russell Wilson
 

All teams get hit with dead cap. Believe it or not, the Saints have the 3rd lowest dead cap figure ($2.841 million) in the league at this point. Seven teams have $19 million or more. Twenty-four teams are at $9 million or more. The league average is over $13 million.

Re: Broncos Release Russell Wilson
 

With the Saints, it's no so much about the actual dead cap hit as it is the potential dead cap numbers with our older roster which limits our flexibility.

Re: Broncos Release Russell Wilson
 

So who are the Broncos drafting then? Are they interested in Jameis now?

JJ McCarthy according to this mock?

Doubt McCarthy makes it to the Broncos' pick.

Re: Broncos Release Russell Wilson
 

Yeah, but that's the trade off with this accounting method. It is the offset of being able to add free agents every year with the converted contracts. With other methods you're forced to totally rebuild periodically usually resulting in two or three years of cellar dwelling with no guarantee you'll return to the same original level of play. Six of one a half dozen of the other. Of course, a generational QB like Mahomes or Brees helps with either method.

Re: Broncos Release Russell Wilson
 

Payton hasn't hit on any QB he's drafted.

Re: Broncos Release Russell Wilson
 

What is the highest pick spent on a QB for a team where SP was HC or OC?

Re: Broncos Release Russell Wilson
 

Via spotrac.com

Ian Book - 133 overall - 2021 - Saints HC

Jesse Palmer - 125 overall - 2001 - Giants OC

I'd safely say less than 10% drafted at this point or after have become what would be deemed as a successful starter regardless of who was doing the drafting.

Re: Broncos Release Russell Wilson
 

So fourth rounders then. Sure you could hit gold on one but the chances are pretty darn slim.

Re: Broncos Release Russell Wilson
 

Yup. And I believe I was pretty generous saying 10% of all QB's drafted at that point or later by any team are what could be classified as a success as a starter.

Re: Broncos Release Russell Wilson
 

I knew I'd seen the numbers before. I posted something from this study a few years ago, I believe.

Here is a QB related excerpt from the link above. Interestingly enough, it refers to both both Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston.



The General Numbers

I broke the positions down as follows: QB, RB, WR, TE, OL, DL, LB, DB.

What we find is that from 2005 until 2014:

2,465 players (non-kickers) were drafted.
629 of those drafted became starters for at least half of their NFL careers
Of the 2,465 players: 122 were QBs, 207 were RBs, 421 were OL, 143 were TE, 317 were WR, 442 were DL, 303 were LB, and 510 were DB.
The first thing we notice is that there is a very small percentage of QBs that have been drafted in the last decade. And you wonder why it's so hard to find a really good elite QB. Second, offense and defense were almost evenly split -- 1,210 offensive players and 1,255 defensive players.

Position Specific

When we get into looking at each position, the first round is king. Even though the first round rules, some positions fare a lot better than others. The disparity among the other rounds varies by position. However that cannot be overlooked when you look at the statistical probability of success by round.

Now let's look at little closer at the QBs.

Of the 122 QBs drafted in the last 10 years only 25 have been starters for at least half of their career.

The first round gives you a 63% chance of finding a starter.

The second round gives you a 27% chance, the third a 17% chance, then it really plummets from there with 8% in the fourth and 6% in the 7th.

In the last 10 years, 38 QBs have been drafted in the 5th and 6th rounds and not one has become a starter.

On average three QBs are drafted in the 1st. This year looks to be a little below average with two probable first rounders.

With the Alex Smith debate raging, no matter where you fall in the argument you will have to agree that unless you catch lightning in a bottle (Russell Wilson) draft success is limited to mostly the first round. Also, I would guess that a majority of those QB starters were high to mid first rounders. It also means that there is a high bust rate for any QB taken after the first round. The Tom Brady / Russell Wilson's of the world are rare occurrences. For the Chiefs, this means that the likelihood of Aaron Murray becoming more than a clipboard holder is about the same as my blind dog finding buried treasure in my backyard. So unless Mariota or Winston falls to No. 18, bank on Smith being the guy for a few more years.

Re: Broncos Release Russell Wilson
 

Good for him.