Fantasy Football: What should we expect from Michael Thomas in the post-Brees era?

SmashMouth · 06-02-2021, 06:49 AM

We’re in the thick of the NFL offseason and it’s officially time to start fantasy football prep. I’ll be answering the biggest questions heading into the 2021 season. Click here to read the series of questions answered so far.

No proven alpha No. 1 WR has faced more consistent social media scrutiny than Michael Thomas in recent years. Don’t get me wrong, Thomas has brought some of this on himself by 1.) randomly stirring the pot with others on Twitter, 2.) not exactly shining at his brightest in recent playoff performances, and 3.) missing a game after becoming yet another WR to punch Chauncey Gardner-Johnson. Still, the general slander for a player who has already accomplished so much in just five seasons of action is a bit alarming.

I won’t argue with anyone who doesn’t want to place Thomas among the NFL’s top-five real life or fantasy WRs, but he fully deserves to be in the conversation. Writing off the NFL’s single-season record holder for most receptions after one injury-riddled season that (again) included plenty of time with a backup QB under center seems unwise.

What follows is a breakdown of how special Thomas has been during his early career and what we should make of his fantasy football stock entering 2021.

THE SLANT-BOY SLANDER IS OVERBLOWN

Many are quick to criticize Thomas due to the reality that he’s been borderline unstoppable running slants over the years. The ridiculousness of hating on a player for being too dominant on a single play is just absurd to me — I’ve never heard anybody say Steph Curry should start shooting fewer three-pointers.

PFF is cool enough to provide per-route data from every play of every game. We can use this to identify just how productive Thomas has been when running a variety of routes:

Slant route: 6.44 yards per route run (No. 1 out of 145 qualified WRs)
Comeback and hitch: 3.64 YPRR (No. 2 out of 126)
In, post and crossing routes: 4.59 YPRR (No. 6 out of 150)
Out and corner routes: 1.42 YPRR (No. 41 out of 130)
Go, wheel, fades and general deep routes: 3.24 YPRR (No. 24 out of 98)
Screen: 0.67 YPRR (No. 88 out of 116)
Thomas has certainly been the master of the slant, and he also finds himself near the top of the leaderboard in different routes, too! Before you freak out about the screens: guys including Mike Evans, Odell Beckham, Calvin Ridley, Amari Cooper and Allen Robinson II were all even less efficient than Thomas. Randos such as Jakeem Grant, Josh Huff and Adam Humphries are at the top — it makes sense that guys who don’t attract as much attention from the defense have had more success on screens over the years.

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06-02-2021, 06:49 AM	#1
SmashMouth I donated, did you? Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Mandeville, LA Posts: 37,183 Blog Entries: 29	Fantasy Football: What should we expect from Michael Thomas in the post-Brees era? We’re in the thick of the NFL offseason and it’s officially time to start fantasy football prep. I’ll be answering the biggest questions heading into the 2021 season. Click here to read the series of questions answered so far. No proven alpha No. 1 WR has faced more consistent social media scrutiny than Michael Thomas in recent years. Don’t get me wrong, Thomas has brought some of this on himself by 1.) randomly stirring the pot with others on Twitter, 2.) not exactly shining at his brightest in recent playoff performances, and 3.) missing a game after becoming yet another WR to punch Chauncey Gardner-Johnson. Still, the general slander for a player who has already accomplished so much in just five seasons of action is a bit alarming. I won’t argue with anyone who doesn’t want to place Thomas among the NFL’s top-five real life or fantasy WRs, but he fully deserves to be in the conversation. Writing off the NFL’s single-season record holder for most receptions after one injury-riddled season that (again) included plenty of time with a backup QB under center seems unwise. What follows is a breakdown of how special Thomas has been during his early career and what we should make of his fantasy football stock entering 2021. Twitter THE SLANT-BOY SLANDER IS OVERBLOWN Many are quick to criticize Thomas due to the reality that he’s been borderline unstoppable running slants over the years. The ridiculousness of hating on a player for being too dominant on a single play is just absurd to me — I’ve never heard anybody say Steph Curry should start shooting fewer three-pointers. PFF is cool enough to provide per-route data from every play of every game. We can use this to identify just how productive Thomas has been when running a variety of routes: Slant route: 6.44 yards per route run (No. 1 out of 145 qualified WRs) Comeback and hitch: 3.64 YPRR (No. 2 out of 126) In, post and crossing routes: 4.59 YPRR (No. 6 out of 150) Out and corner routes: 1.42 YPRR (No. 41 out of 130) Go, wheel, fades and general deep routes: 3.24 YPRR (No. 24 out of 98) Screen: 0.67 YPRR (No. 88 out of 116) Thomas has certainly been the master of the slant, and he also finds himself near the top of the leaderboard in different routes, too! Before you freak out about the screens: guys including Mike Evans, Odell Beckham, Calvin Ridley, Amari Cooper and Allen Robinson II were all even less efficient than Thomas. Randos such as Jakeem Grant, Josh Huff and Adam Humphries are at the top — it makes sense that guys who don’t attract as much attention from the defense have had more success on screens over the years. more from PFF Attached Thumbnails st thomas and Thirty3 like this.
	Last edited by SmashMouth; 06-02-2021 at 06:54 AM.. Reason: Front Page