BakoSaint

In most recent NFL drafts 1-3 of the top 4 picks are Quarterbacks. Some teams like San Francisco have executed Ricky Williams or Herscel Walker style trades to move up for QBs at the top of the first round lately and most of those trades have worked out worse than the trades for Ricky Williams and Herschel Walker.

At this point I think Joe Burrow is the only elite QB left in the NFL who was a top 4 overall pick. Yes there is Kyler Murray but other than his contract not much is eite, he got elite receivers, went .500 a lot, has done nothing in the playoffs, and now tore his ACL. Sam Bradford and Matt Ryan are no longer elite. The trend extends to the #5 overall pick if we dont count Tua as elite.
Clearly as a pro Tua has been inconsistent, injury prone, and has needed insane weapons to look above average.

So, I think this should change how we look at our long term QB problem. With different pocket and mobile options for qb success in the nfl, and with more spread offenses in college and 7-on-7 camps before college, the quarterback position may be becoming harder to predict, with more options and less chance of success. Yet, teams have been acting like they can predict the right qb and making big moves and or passing up big trade value to draft guys like Trey Lance and Zach Wilson. Even the annointed sure thing Trevor Lawrence is looking mediocre. Tank for Tua was lucky to get a Burrow bailout because Tua does not look like a sure thing. Recent top 4 busts and question marks include Zach Wilson, Lawrence, Lance, Mayfield, Darnold, Trubisky, Goff, Mariota, Winston, and Wentz.

Some of the best QBs in the NFL in recent years like Hurts, Brady, Jackson, Prescott, and before his recent implosion Russell Wilson were later round picks. Many others were early to mid 1st round picks but not top 5 such as Maholmes, Watson, Hebert, Rodgers, and Allen.

So, I think this indicates maybe we should not consider any kind of blockbuster Trey Lance style trade to mortgage years of draft stock to move up for a top 4 pick under the delusion of sure things. If we get a top 3 pick on our own in 2024, it could be smart to trade back out of it if some team offer us such a deal. QBs from 6th overall to early 2nd round may cost much less than top picks and have similar chance to succeed. If we like a qb who is available at the 8th or 12th pick or something, trading to that position will cost a lot less. And a mobile qb in the 2nd or 3rd round could be a value too.

I think GMs are afraid to trade back and pass on ‘their guy’ but in reality more teams in the last 10 years have have done franchise altering damage with high qb picks than franchise changing improvement. Burrow is the only resounding success. So unless the top qb’s last name is manning or his last season he led the greatest offense in the history of college football like Burrow, I dont think a qb is worth the cost of trading up to top 4, or refusing to trade down from top 4. Trends can be anomalies and there will be more Peyton Mannings in the future probably who live up to #1, but maybe not enough. I think that we need a young qb, but we should also consider value and our ability to also have the resources to acquire a supporting cast. Even if a team finds the next peyton manning with a top 4 overall pick qb, which 90% dont seem to find, than Peyton Manning becomes Archie Manning or Lions Matt Stafford without the supporting cast.

Maybe trading Payton will net us a draft pick high enough to take the 4th Qb selected in the draft without bit trade up costs and maybe the 4th Qb taken will have about a 23-24% chance to be the best of the 4, given how increasingly unpredictable the qb position is becoming.

MatthewT

The Saints really missed the mark in the 2022 draft. It was obvious that Ian Book was struggling, a mid round pick would have brought in a very good QB prospect to work with. I especially liked Matt Corral, and Bailey Zappe had some pretty good success in his playing time so far.

neugey

The 2023 draft feels like it is crazy-deep with QB talent that has upside. Spencer Rattler seems like a late bloomer that could now prosper in the right NFL system, and guys like Spencer Sanders and Adrian Martinez who have a nice mix of talent and intangibles could fall toward the end of the draft or be UFA.

Boston Saint

One thing you MIGHT be missing bako (just an idea) is that other QBs besides Joe might have been capable of being an elite QB had they gone to a “better” team.

When teams like Jets and Jacksonville are poor for extended time and have year after year of failure they probably have a lot of roadblocks (like coaching development) that keep them from being able to reach their full potential. Sam Darnold (just to pick a name) might have become elite had he landed in a good environment like KC or GB. I wonder if Mahomes would be the same player he is now with Reid and KC had he gone to say Jets instead. No doubt he would still be a good player, but would he have reached the “elite” level without the coaching and offensive weapons he had from day 1. How good would Lawrence be now had he gone to KC?

Just a thought.

You think you know, but you don’t know...and you never will! Coach Jim Mora

BakoSaint

All this is true but nobody can account for parallel universes and alternate realities. I can only take data from our reality. In some parallel universe Archie Manning had 3 daughters, Urban Meyer stayed retired after Florida with a bad heart scan, Chad Pennington stayed healthy and won the AFC East every year, etc, but I can't account for that. Trevor Lawrence might have been great on the Bengals. Joe Burrow might have been mediocre on the Jags. If we had a great offensive coach perhaps we could put lipstick on a pig and make Sam Darnold or Zach Wilson work. But its pretty obvious we don't have a great offensive coach. We are perhaps in Jets and Jags territory. But Mike White has been decent with the Jets. Gardner Minshew was decent with the Jags. So if anything this helps my argument. Especially if you don't have great offensive coaching and QB development capacity, its a horrible decision to waste tons of resources on a top 4 pick type super elite QB prospect, when only one in the league has panned out, and your capacity to develop one is questionable.

Also everything you said about pro football applies to college too. Lawrence and Burrow might have been lousy college QBs if they went to Rutgers and Iowa State, and Brock Purdy and Mike White might have been top 4 picks if they went to Clemson and LSU. Its hard to tell who will be good with all the different systems at the college and pro levels these days. So why pay top dollar for a performance that relied on one system in college and will rely on another in the pros? Why not get some QB who might not have been in the perfect system for them in college, and focus on using the draft capital you save to get them the perfect system in the NFL?

If many QBs are system QBs, and we clearly don't have a good system, we should focus on bringing in coaches with a good system, not investing heavily in a QB who may only have succeeded because of their college system and will likely fail in our crappy pro system. We need to attract a good coach. What will do that is having lots of cap space, lots of draft picks, and a core of cheap talented young players to build around. That means we need to rebuild and take the painful cap hits to offload aging players and underperformers.

But even when we have a good system, for example I think Kyle Shannahan has brought a good offensive system to SF, the QB position is incredibly unpredictable. The 49ers might have a Superbowl dynasty if they didn't blow 3 1st round picks on Trey Lance. The Dolphins used those picks to acquire 3 pro bowl players. Imagine the 49ers with 3 more pro bowlers and Brock Purdy. I think there is a fair argument to be made that teams betting the farm on top 4 pick type QBs are overpaying and making a big mistake. As more and more QBs rely on their mobility and offensive systems become more diverse with less west coast style pocket passing, the QB position may be becoming more like the RB position where success is unpredictable, careers can be short, the blocking and offensive system can be key, with the right system it can be possible to plug and play a new starter at times, and youth and low cost are as valuable assets as any. I am not saying QBs are becoming running backs, but they are becoming closer to that, and less of the 15 year franchise QB 1st overall pick formula of years past.

Getting a cheap young QB could still be valuable even if we don't have a good offensive system to develop one. Belichick was no offensive guru when Tom Brady was drafted. Peyton Manning's first coach was Jim Mora. The Eagles changed coaches after drafting Hurts, the Cowboys after Prescott, etc. Some QBs can succeed in spite of the system randomly, and some can be saved when someone with a better system comes in a year or two later. I just think a cheap option at QB may be smart at this point given the unpredictability I have highlighted and our status as a cap-poor pick-poor team.

vpheughan

Remember Jake Delhomme? A certain coach refused to give him a chance over "The Laughing Interception Machine".

SmashMouth

Will the Saints' miss the mark on a QB in the 2023 draft?

Boston Saint

We won’t need a QB in the draft. Minshew will save the day!

jnormand

I would love that. I think Minshew has so much potential.

TheOak

I haven’t seen it asked yet so I’ll kick the proverbial horse.

Who is it exactly that’s on our staff that is known to be able to develop QB talent?