BakoSaint

Alvin Kamara is 29 years old. Lets take a factual look at some other great historic running backs and saints running backs and how they faired in rushing yardage (as a simply proxy) from age 25-29 and then age 30-34 to get an idea of projected decline:

Alvin Kamara:
25-29: 932, 898, 897, 694, TBD
30-34: TBD

Marshall Faulk:
25-29: 1319, 1381, 1359, 1382, 953
30-34: 818, 774, 292, retired.

Ladanian Tomlinson:
25-29: 1335, 1462, 1815, 1474, 1110
30-34: 730, 914, 280, retired.

Adrian Peterson:
25-29: 1298, 970, 2097, 1266, 75(inj)
30-34: 1485, 72(inj), 529, 1042, 898

Edgerrin James:
25-29: 1259, 1548, 1506, 1159, 1222
30-34: 514, 125, retired

Shaun Alexander:
25-29: 1175, 1435, 1696, 1880, 896
30-34: 716, 24, retired

Jamal Charles:
25-29: 83(inj), 1509, 1287, 1033, 364
30-34: 40, 296, 7, retired

Lesean McCoy:
25-29: 1607, 1319, 895, 1267, 1138
30-34: 514, 465, 31, retired

Leveon Bell:
25-29: 1291, held out, 789, 328, 101
30-34: retired

Ricky Williams:
25-29: 1853, 1372, took year off, 743, suspended
30-34: 15, 659, 1121, 673, 444

Deuce McAllister:
25-29: 1654, 1074, 335(inj), 1057, 92
30-34: 418, retired

Reggie Bush:
25-29: 150(inj), 1086, 986, 1006, 297
30-34: 28, -3, retired

Mark Ingram II:
25-29: 964, 769, 1043, 1124, 645
30-34: 1018, 299, 554, 233, retired

Marshawn Lynch:
25-29: 1204, 1590, 1257, 1306, 417
30-34: took year off, 891, 376, 34, retired

Thurman Thomas:
25-29: 1407, 1487, 1315, 1093, 1005
30-34: 1033, 643, 381, 152, 136

Barry Sanders:
25-29: 1115, 1883, 1500, 1553, 2053
30-34: 1491 with lowest yards per carry in 6 years by large margin, timed it perfect based on stats and retired.

There are some rare exceptions:

Curtis Martin:
25-29: 1287, 1464, 1204, 1513, 1094
30-34: 1308, 1697, 735 (w/ 3.3ypc), retired

Frank Gore:
25-29: 1036, 1120, 853, 1211, 1214
30-34: 1128, 1106, 967, 1025, 961

Emmitt Smith:
25-29: 1484, 1773, 1204, 1074, 1332
30-34: 1397, 1203, 1021, 975, 256

The most receiving yards any of these three exceptions had in a year after turning 30 was 277. The exceptions seem to be more of the bell cow RB type who are able to sustain above averageness by knowing the system and vision and such, not runners who rely on separation and burst.

I think realistically both the Saints and 49ers would be smart to realize that as brilliant as CMC and Kamara have been in the past, maybe having talent comperable to LaDanian Tomlinson, Marshall Faulk, and Edgerrin James brilliant careers, all those players declined a great deal after turning 30, and it is highly likely Kamara and CMC will too. It will not be a shock if Kamara has a good year at 29, but the odds have to be about 75% that he will decline greatly if they try to give him big money for year 31.

Pay da man means ignore the stats and history.

Boston Saint

I'm not necessarily disagreeing with your thoughts on signing Kamara Bako, but Here is another data point to add to your evaluation.

You show stats for years 25-29 of these backs' careers I believe. I just went through the first 5 backs on your list (plus Kamara) and came up with the following according to pro football reference.

If you look at their career stats while listed ages 25-29 you will notice that the number of games played for the first six guys listed ranges from 58 for Petersen to 79 for LT. I decided to break it down to each back's workload per 17 game season they would have played from ages 25-29. When you combine rushing attempts and passes targeted you will see that, per season from ages 25-29, these backs had combined rushing and receiving touches of:

E James 435/season
LT 434/season
Faulk 420/season
Shaun A 418/season
AP 393/season
Kamara 357/season

I didn't go any further cause I'm lazy, but I think it's demonstrable that Kamara has had less abuse on his body during this age stage of his career than at least many of these backs did. That also does not include his natural style to avoid hard contact at the end of runs when not needed. Just food for thought.

Edit...I decided to look at McCaffrey as well. He's not 29 yet. But in his last 6 seasons he's played 75 games. He's had 384 combined touches per 17 game season, so more than Kamara; and has had a major injury.

You think you know, but you don’t know...and you never will! Coach Jim Mora

BakoSaint

I see your argument but a 350 to 420 touch ratio is a 5:6 ratio so perhaps that buys an extra year or so at most, maybe 2 if you stretch it back to college. That still makes a new contract at 30 a tough sell. Plus if you look at the runners who i know had less usage like williams with his suspensions and temporary retirement, and reggie and ingram with their splitting time, and bell with his holdout, none of them lasted longer. Also I would say some of these other backs avoided hits. Yet if we look at the 3 who lasted longest it would be martin, smith, and gore, who were not low workload or avoiding hits so much. CMC is probably the worse bet. Also I am not saying its impossible that Kamara will be productive ages 30-32. But I think if you try to replace a RB who was successful at year 29 with a competition of two rookies, your odds of success will be better than hoping you have Emmitt Smith, and your cost will definitely be lower.

mapcow

Once a thug.... always a thug. The thug will get no praise from this keyboard. cut bait