New Orleans Saints Forums - blackandgold.com - Turning Attention to the Draft

Quote:

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido (Post 1007617)

How does Carr agree to be traded away from what most of us see to be a great offensive upgrade in Kellen Moore? If I was him I would do exactly what he did with the Raiders. Refuse a trade and force the team to either keep him or cut him. If cut he could go directly where he wants with the Saints having no say.

Carr's current deal if the Saints retain him is $10 million signing bonus and $30 million salary in 2025, followed by $50 million salary in 2026 which, although not guaranteed, could become effectively guaranteed if he is injured and cannot be cleared by the start of the 2026 season, for example if he suffered a torn ACL late in the year or a serious concussion that he could find doctors and lawyers to argue made it too dangerous to play again. The high 2026 salary gives him both some protection from injury and also some leverage in future contract extension negotiations with a new team, where if he played well in 2025 they would not have a cheap year on the books, and would either have to give him the $50 million in 2026, cut him and lose him for nothing, or give him a long term deal.

Essentially Carr's remaining deal with the Saints or whatever team trades for him, if he is not cut before the start of the year, is 2 years $90 million with $40 million guaranteed. So, whether Carr would benefit financially from becoming a free agent depends on whether the top bidder would give him more or less than that. Whether Carr would gain the ability to pick his team would depend on whether 2 teams would give him more than that.

In my opinion, no teams would give Carr that deal. I think teams would be looking to bid on Carr at $20-30m/yr, not $40-50m/yr but its hard to predict.

One factor to consider is that Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, and possibly also Matt Stafford and Geno Smith, could be available in free agency or trade, so the market for older QBs could be a buyers market. Carr is the youngest in the group but Carr and Smith have by far the least playoff experience, and Carr has been much more banged up than Smith. And then there are also younger options like Darnold and Fields. Overall I think that in this type of market, most teams that would be 'interested' in Carr will be looking for him to sign a much more affordable contract than he has today. Sure, some mediocre QBs got overpaid on guys like Prescott and Goff have contracts that pay about 20% more than Carr. If Carr was the last QB on earth and your life depended on winning as many games as possible in 2025 even if that was only 7-9 games, maybe his contract is ok. But why would a team pay that much if they do have other comparable options and and can play them against each other to pay way less, or if the goal is to win a ring down the road not 8 games immediately? The Steelers got Russell Wilson for $1 million last year because the Broncos had already guaranteed his salary. If Kirk Cousins is able to make enough noise to force the Falcons to cut him, he could be available for $1 million too because his contract is guaranteed. Who is doing to see those deals and want to pay not less than $40 million for Carr?

However, it is possible that one team out there could accept Carr's current contract. Its also possible that while no team might accept the contract in free agency, one team would accept it if the Saints sweetened the pot by throwing in a mid-round pick in return for the cap relief of their accepting it. If thats the case, and accepting a trade is the only way for Carr to earn $40 million not $25 million next year, and to have $50 million on the books for 2026, not $30 million, then thats why Carr would accept a trade.

It's also worth nothing that Carr's $10 million roster bonus with the Saints for 2025 is guaranteed but also subject to offset. So I believe if we do cut him, he won't get any of that money, unless he signs for under $10 million.