Spencer Rattler vs Derek Carr - The Facts
 

I wrote this article to investigate whether Derek Carr's 5-5 record this season versus Spencer Rattler's 0-7 record proves Carr is the better QB, despite the eye test that says Rattler competes on skills and wins on youth, upside, and affordability. What I found is that Rattler faced a much tougher schedule with a much more depleted supporting cast, and its not even close. We will be flushing money down the toilet if we retain Derek Carr and bench Spencer Rattler.

https://www.firemickeyloomis.com/spe...carr-the-facts

Many Derek Carr fanboys are arguing to anyone who will listen that with Derek Carr in 2024 the Saints were 'close', going 5-5 despite many injuries, yet with Spencer Rattler the Saints were hopeless, going 0-7. They make Derek Carr out to be a playoff contender going into 2025, but this ignores all the facts. The reason that Spencer Rattler went 0-7 was that Rattler faced 86% playoff teams with 28% of key offensive weapons (McCoy,Kamara,Hill,Olave,Shaheed) available. Carr was 5-5 but faced only 30% playoff teams and had 66% of the key 5 offensive weapons available. In truth, Rattler offers a much younger less costly alternative to Carr, with more upside. The Saints with Carr did not have a better record because they were 'close' they had a better record because they faced weaker opponents with a healthier offense and Carr is a QB who has consistently demonstrated his ability to go .500 by beating weak opponents while failing to beat playoff teams. That is who Derek Carr is, and why he will never be worth $40-50 million per year.

Here are some facts:

Neither Derek Carr nor Spencer Rattler beat any opponents in 2024 who made the 2024 playoffs, finished 2024 with a winning record, or finished 2024 with a winning record against other teams (excluding their games against the Saints for fair comparison). The Saints were 0-9 against such teams, which is... not close.

Spencer Rattler faced 6 such playoff/winning teams in 7 games in 2024. Derek Carr faced 3 such playoff/winning teams in 10 games in 2024. Spencer Rattler faced the much harder schedule while Carr sat out most of the toughest games and came back just in time for easier games with healthier supporting cast.

Derek Carr was 5-2 against losing teams in 2024, but did lose to both the Panthers and Falcons. This is a great skill for avoid high draft picks, but does not make the Saints close or contenders.

Spencer Rattler only faced one losing team in 2024 and happened to lose that game against the Raiders, a game in which the Saints had already been eliminated from the playoffs just a week earlier, this being their first full weak of practice after the let down of elimination, and it was a game in which Erik McCoy, Alvin Kamara, Taysom Hill, Chris Olave, and Rashid Shaheed all did not play, essentially the perfect storm of missing weapons. Had Spencer Rattler had 7 games against losing teams he may very well have been 5-2 also.

Derek Carr was injured twice in 2023 (he never missed a full game only due to lucky timing with byes) and twice in 2024 missing 7 games. Spencer Rattler has not missed any games in 2024 or in college in 2023 or 2022. Rattler, 10 years younger, is clearly more durable than Carr.

In addition to strength of opponents, injuries of key offensive weapons and oline played a big role in Carr and Rattler's records:

Erik McCoy was available in 5 of 10 Carr games but only 2 of 7 Rattler games.

Alvin Kamara was available in all 10 of 10 Carr games, but only 4 of 7 Rattler games.

Taysom Hill was available in 7 of 10 Carr games, but only 1 of 7 Rattler games.

Chris Olave was available in 6 of 10 Carr games, but only 2 of 7 Rattler games.

Rashid Shaheed was available in 5 of 10 Carr games, but only 1 of 7 Rattler games.

All in among these key 5 offensive players, Carr played with 66% of his key supporting cast in his starts, Rattler played with 28% of his key supporting cast.

Just in case you think that this means Rattler is the one throwing 'hospital balls', Shaheed suffered a season ending injury in a Rattler game, Olave in a Carr game, Taysom Hill suffered two long term injuries both in Carr games, Kamara sat out the last 3 games of the season after a minor injury in a Rattler game, and McCoy suffered a long term injury under Carr that was aggravated later under Rattler. With Rattler facing the stronger opponents, we might have expected more injuries under Rattler, but there is no such pattern.

The reason that Carr was 5-5 and Rattler 0-7, and that Carr's stats look slightly better, was not skill. Carr faced 30% playoff teams with 66% key offensive weapons available. Rattler faced 86% playoff teams with 28% key offensive weapons available. The deck was stacked against Rattler, yet he still stayed healthy himself and showed great signs of skill and development. Witht he same weak opponents and healthier weapons, Rattler would likely have outplayed Carr for a fraction of the cost and with far more upside.

Knowing this context and these facts, the Saints should not hesitate to designate to designate Derek Carr a Post-June-1 cut, save $30 million against the 2025 cap, $33 million against the 2026 cap which they could be $100 million under with the right moves, and avoid $17 million dead cap that would hit in 2027 if Carr plays out his contract. That money could be better spent elsewhere, on players who have won playoff games in their career, are competitive against playoff teams in the regular season, are young and have upside, and would be willing to take pay cuts if they were as bad against playoff teams as Derek Carr. Spencer Rattler is about as good a QB as Derek Carr for much less cost, and the Saints need to rebuild starting with a young QB. Carr is a QB who goes .500 by with a weak schedule, isn't competitive against playoff teams, and has never won a playoff game in his 11 year NFL career. There is no precedent for a 34yo QB who never won a playoff game going on to become an playoff hero. He is not worth $40-50 million a year and never will be. He must be cut.

Re: Spencer Rattler vs Derek Carr - The Facts
 

Dual Threat QB + Powerful Back + Offensive Line = Success

Re: Spencer Rattler vs Derek Carr - The Facts
 

Jared Goff is Derek Carr’s ceiling, except 3.5 years younger.

Re: Spencer Rattler vs Derek Carr - The Facts
 

Didn’t Rattler play with backups in all 7 games?

Re: Spencer Rattler vs Derek Carr - The Facts
 

Virtually all our games involved some backups. Rattlers involved substantially more backups especially of key rb, wr, te, and oline.

Re: Spencer Rattler vs Derek Carr - The Facts
 

Rattler didn’t get much of a fair shot with what he was playing with. Lol. Insane what the drop off was after our starters were gone. Horrible depth. Good grief the only offensive weapon we had was MVS and he barely knew the system.

Re: Spencer Rattler vs Derek Carr - The Facts
 

I don't share the Rattler optimism. I saw him him enough throughout the years to know he's just not good. Strangers things have happened so I'm not going to close that door.

If we really move on from Carr, I really hope Fields becomes that bridge.

Re: Spencer Rattler vs Derek Carr - The Facts
 

Fair point. I wouldn’t say that I think Rattler is the answer. I honestly don’t know. But I always think it’s exciting seeing a younger QB starting. I’m always hopeful to see something that would make him the next franchise QB. But truth is there is only a few of those guys out there.

It’s just fun to watch a new QB play. Exciting! (Or it can be painful. Lol)

Re: Spencer Rattler vs Derek Carr - The Facts
 

Yes. This here is a huge truth. I sincerly hope we luck upon one.

Re: Spencer Rattler vs Derek Carr - The Facts
 

This is the best article I've seen weighing options with DC contract:

https://saintswire.usatoday.com/2025...t-roster-cuts/

Re: Spencer Rattler vs Derek Carr - The Facts
 

I don't see Fields as that guy. He's similar to Rattler, in my opinion.

Re: Spencer Rattler vs Derek Carr - The Facts
 

Rattler, Fields, Cooper Rush … whatever.

It’s time to start laying the rebuild foundation and get Kellen's culture established.

Re: Spencer Rattler vs Derek Carr - The Facts
 

Cooper Rush Tanner McKee Kenny Pickett / an individual that Moore has first hand experience with. IMHO if that does not come to pass Carr will be back in B&G in 2025. I can’t see Moore staking his coaching debut on Rattler just saying. I know the dump Carr at all cost view is widely held but with the tape on Rattler I just don’t see him as option 1.

Re: Spencer Rattler vs Derek Carr - The Facts
 

Ultimately I think Carr gets restructured, the money get spread over 5 years and he's the starter on a short leash. Bye bye in 2026.

Re: Spencer Rattler vs Derek Carr - The Facts
 

But have you seen the dead money number in 2026 if we do that? We’ll be saying the same thing in 2026,2027, and so on until we have a 40yo playoff virgin with $150 million dead but a bargain $90 million to keep and restructure.

Basically dead money to cut Carr in 2026 if he is restructured is $60 million. There is also always risk that if Carr was seriously injured late in the season he could fail to pass a physical and be unable to be cut, adding another $50 million for a hurt QB in 2026.

Re: Spencer Rattler vs Derek Carr - The Facts
 

Hence why in all likelihood, he'll be traded (with his approval of course with the no trade clause) to a team willing to take on some of the cap. There'll be some sort of June 1 cap implication. I guess we'll all see.

Re: Spencer Rattler vs Derek Carr - The Facts
 

I don’t see any team that will trade for Carr for the same reason the Saints didn’t trade for him a couple of seasons ago.

Any interested team will just wait for him to get cut.

Re: Spencer Rattler vs Derek Carr - The Facts
 

He was in the same position with the Raiders and didn't approve talk of a trade and had to be released. I serious doubt he'd change his stance now.

Re: Spencer Rattler vs Derek Carr - The Facts
 

Just saw this after I posted. That is definitely a factor, as well. Either retained or cut. A trade doesn't make sense for two of the three parties involved.

Re: Spencer Rattler vs Derek Carr - The Facts
 

This is a fine article, very similar to what I wrote:

https://www.firemickeyloomis.com/202...nts-salary-cap

But I think the Saintswire article may be missing a few details.

This is an extremely esoteric cap rule and I could be wrong but I believe that if we designate Carr a post-June-1 cut and he signs with another team for say $25 million a year on the third day of free agency, since his $10 million guaranteed roster bonus with the saints is subject to offset, the Saints may receive that $10 million cap credit the second he signs with another team. I can't find the exact rules anywhere on how the combination of a post-june-1 cut designation and offset language interact. Most of the articles I read say that for a post-june-1-cut designation the team still has to carry the players salary to june 1, but for offset language they say that the teams salary cap is credited when the player signs elsewhere, so which is it? This would matter a lot as it could give the Saints an extra $10 million for the second half of free agency if Carr lands on his feet.

I think it is very unlikely that Carr will be traded because I don't think another team would want to pay his current contract and I think the Saints are better off using the Post-June-1 designation. I think Carr would waive his no trade clause in a second to keep his current contract, but the reality is that in a market where Carr, Rodgers, Wilson, Cousins, and Stafford are all likely available, nobody is paying Carr $40 million in free agency.

There are a lot of small restructures that help the Saints get under the cap. Any other veteran agreeing to take a pay cut is also a wildcard, and that did happen last year with a couple.

Restructuring Demario Davis and Tyrann Mathieu is not ideal, but both took true pay cuts last offseason which Carr has refused to do. And their tape looked better than his when they took pay cuts. Combined restructures of Davis and Mathieu only kick the can on a total of $10 million and that can all be paid out of the extra $30-50mil cap we will get June 1 when the designations fully vest, if we just roll over $10 mil of that money. I think Mathieu and Davis, having contributed to signficant playoff wins early in their career, are better role models for a rebuilding team than Carr. It is also possible that one could elect to retire, cutting their salary to $1 million, then retiring June 1. This would save more. Same goes for Taysom Hill or Cam Jordan.

Re: Spencer Rattler vs Derek Carr - The Facts
 

Good stuff Bako. Thanks for sharing.