I will settle the argument!
 

I was curious so I sat down at looked at all of the Superbowl winning QB’s and what selection they were in the draft, so here’s the truth:

1. Starr picked in the 17th round
2. Starr picked in the 17th round
3. Namath picked number 1 overall
4. Dawson picked 1st round 5th pick
5. Unitas picked in the 9th round
6. Staubach picked in the 10th round
7. Griese picked 1st round 4th pick
8. Griese picked 1st round 4th pick
9. Bradshaw picked number 1 overall
10. Bradshaw picked number 1 overall
11. Stabler picked in the 2nd round
12. Staubach picked in the 10th round
13. Bradshaw picked number 1 overall
14. Bradshaw picked number 1 overall
15. Plunkett picked number 1 overall
16. Montana picked in the 3rd round
17. Theismann picked in the 4th round
18. Plunkett picked number 1 overall
19. Montana picked in the 3rd round
20. McMahon picked 1st round 5th pick
21. Simms picked 1st round 7th overall
22. Williams picked 1st round 17th overall
23. Montana picked in the 3rd round
24. Montana picked in the 3rd round
25. Hostetler picked in the 3rd round
26. Rypien picked in the 6th round
27. Aikman picked number 1 overall
28. Aikman picked number 1 overall
29. Young picked 1st overall in the supplemental draft
30. Aikman picked number 1 overall
31. Favre picked in the 2nd round
32. Elway picked number 1 overall
33. Elway picked number 1 overall
34. Warner not even drafted
35. Dilfer picked 1st round 6th pick
36. Brady picked in the 6th round
37. Johnson picked in the 9th round
38. Brady picked in the 6th round
39. Brady picked in the 6th round

Only 12 Superbowls were won by QB's who were drafted #1 overall. I think this make the case very clearly that if a QB is not taken with the 1st or 2nd overall pick in the draft, that you team has a far better chance of winning the Superbowl and saving alot of money on their car insurance.

THE END

RE: I will settle the argument!
 

Where all of you at? Can't mess with the info can ya?

:airguitar:

RE: I will settle the argument!
 

Geico definately would be cheaper.

RE: I will settle the argument!
 

i am hiring the bud stunt man

RE: I will settle the argument!
 

i wish i lived in a world that was so simple. then i could ride my loch ness monster over the rainbow to bargin with a leprachaun for his pot of gold.

RE: I will settle the argument!
 

That argument makes no sense at all. There have only been 30 something QBs taken first (or however many years the draft has been in place). But, there have been hundreds of QBs that have been taken after the first round. Look at the percentage!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! It's really not that hard. Cher, do some research and find all of the QBs that are drafted after the first round, then see how many of those win the Super Bowl. I guarantee you that QBs taken in the first round are more likely to succeed.

Ex. These #s are completely made up, because I don't know how to find this information:

30 years of the draft. Even if there was a QB taken #1 every year, there would be 30 #1 QBs. They have won 12 Super Bowls out of 39. 30 #1 picks winning 12 Super Bowls = 40% chance that a #1 pick will win the Super Bowl. Now, because I don't know how many QBs have actually been taken after the first round since the beginning of the draft, let's say that there has been 6 QBs taken each year after the first round. 6 (# of QBs taken each year) X 30 (# of years draft has been around) = 180. OK so out of 180 QBs drafted after the first round, 27 Super Bowls have been won by them. That's 15% chance that any other QB drafted after the first round will win the Super Bowl.

This example could make no sense, I'm not really sure. But when you look at it, first round picks have a higher success rate than ALL of the QBs taken after the first round. You can't just look at the Tom Bradys and the Trent Greens, you also have to look at the Matt Mauks, Rohan Daveys, and countless others. TRUST ME CHER, IF YOU WANT A BETTER CHANCE AT DRAFTING A WINNING QB, TAKE HIM IN THE FIRST ROUND. THERE'S A REASON WHY THEY USUALLY GET SELECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DRAFT: THEY'RE BETTER.

RE: I will settle the argument!
 

Man I don't know what to say. If you go to History of the draft you can find every teams draft for the last 60 years.
I don't know what else to do. I give you the information and you still can't do the math.

Here ya go. Only 30 % of all Superbowls were won by QB's picked #1.

Can you also see that no QB that was drafted in the 1st round with pick #2 has won the superbowl?

Dude, you have issues, alot of issues.

RE: I will settle the argument!
 

I am giving you the information and you still don't see it do you?

Only 19 or 48.7 % of QB's drafted in the 1st round have won the superbowl.

RE: I will settle the argument!
 

If we draft a QB which I think we will I just hope we don't end up with a David Carr, which is possible I guess,

Re: I will settle the argument!
 

..you forgot to mention that, out of those 12 Superbowl wins by 1st picks overall, 9 of them were won by 3 QB's...

Bradshaw 4
Aikman 3
Elway 2

Re: RE: I will settle the argument!
 

Excuse me, Mr Mathematics genius, but your comparison doesn't hold water... you want to compare the results of the first round of selections (32 players) against all the other rounds combined (230 some)* . Duh!!

*and that is present. There used to be much more than 7 rounds...

RE: I will settle the argument!
 

You're right, it is 30%, not 40%. First of all, we don't have the first pick. So I'll go ahead and look up the first round picks, because that's what I've been arguing anyways: that 1st round QBs have a higher success rate. I looked up the stats on the numbers of QBs drafted since 1982, that's how far back NFL.com's database goes.


1982
1st rounders- 2
After the first round- 6

1983
1st rounders- 6
After the first round- 8

1984
1st rounders- 0
After- 14

1985
1st rounders- 0
After- 11

1986
1st rounders- 2
After- 13

1987
1st rounders- 4
After- 15

1988
1st rounders- 0
After- 12

1989
1st rounders- 1
After- 15

1990
1st rounders- 2
After- 18

1991
1st Rounders- 2
After- 10

1992
1st rounders- 2
After- 18

1993
1st rounders- 2
After 6

1994
1st rounders- 2
After- 7

1995
1st rounders- 2
After- 12

1996
1st rounders- 0
After- 8

1997
1st rounders- 1
After- 10

1998
1st rounders- 2
After- 6

1999
1st rounders- 5
After- 8

2000
1st rounders- 1
After- 11

2001
1st rounders- 1
After- 10

2002
1st rounders- 3
After- 11

2003
1st rounders- 4
After- 9

2004
1st rounders- 4
After- 13

2005
1st rounders- 3
After- 11

So that's 51 QBs taken in the first round since 1982. And 262 QBs taken after the first round.

Since Super Bowl 16, 11 of the winning quarterbacks have been first-rounders. However, Aikman and Elway won multiple Super Bowls, so that means that only 8 DIFFERENT QBs drafted in the first round have won a Super Bowl since 1982. 8/24= 33.33% But, Plunkett and Phil Simms were drafted before 1982. That means that only 6 QBs (McMahon, Williams, Aikman, Young, Elway, and Dilfer) drafted after1982 have won a Super Bowl since 1982. 6 out of 51 = 11.76%

Now let's look at the QBs taken after the first round since 1982. 13 QBs drafted after the first round have won since Super Bowl 16. However, Montana and Theismann were drafted before 1982, that means that only 6 different QBs drafted after the first round since 1982 have won a Super Bowl. 6 out of 262 = 2.29%

So the chance of Super Bowl winning QBs drafted in the first round since 1982 is almost 12%. After the first round is a little more than 2%.

Also, what difference does it make if its the #2 pick? I'm sure there might never have been a #21 picked quarterback or any other random # to have won a Super Bowl. It's about being a first-rounder.

P.s.- McNabb is a #2 pick.

RE: I will settle the argument!
 

McNabb never won a superbowl. You guys are trying to make the argument that Leinart is the won to pick and all I am saying is NO QB THAT HAS BEEN DRAFTED NUMBER 2 HAS EVER WON A SUPERBOWL. You can go back as far as you want on that other theory about the #1 Pick being more successful. I will stick to drafting a QB outside the first or second pick, alot more chances to win.
thanks Reiper and if you add Plunkett that is 11 of 12 superbowls. These guys still don't see the chance they are taking drafting a QB at the #2 spot.

RE: I will settle the argument!
 

and now you're just selecting what years to use. How funny you are! :lolup: :lolup:

RE: I will settle the argument!
 

I work for the government and I calculate your taxes, what's my name? THEDEUCE that's who! Only someone that works for the government would try to manipulate figures in the open like you are trying to do.

Cher, you appear to still be holding on the dream of HAWK as the first draft pick of the Saints.

I admire your tenacity, but DREAM on! BTW; I would like my case of DIXE cold, thank you!

RE: I will settle the argument!
 

First of all, how is that manipulating #s? If anything, what you quoted me on actually lowered the percentage of QBs that have gone in the first round that have won a Super Bowl. So you're actually backwards on that one.

And where did I ever say anything about #1 picks. PLEASE TELL ME. I never said anything about a #1 pick, I've always talked about first-rounders. Please tell me Cher.

I'll buy it for you if and when Benson becomes stupid enough to throw his money away on Leinart. Never happen! and I like mine cold, real cold. Hey I am going to be down there in March maybe we can get together and I'll buy two cases and we can get drunk together. I don't mind losing as long as I have someone to drink with.

deuce you work for the government? that is just sick to me

Ok then if you said first rounders like I thought you said the first time. QB's drafted outside round one have won more superbowls than QB's drafted in the first round and only 5 of those QB's won 13 superbowls. I would rather spend the money on defense and draft a second round or later QB or none at all. Free Agency baby.

RE: I will settle the argument!
 

Since 1982, only 3 QBs have been taken at the #2 pick. Rick Mirer, Ryan Leaf, and Donovan McNabb. Leaf and Mirer are busts, McNabb is still top 5 in the league.

All time, 15 QBs have been taken with the 2nd pick. These include McNabb, Joe Namath, Archie Manning, Y.A. Tittle, and Sid Luckman. 3 of those are Hall of Famers.
http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/twos

RE: I will settle the argument!
 

Haha cher, you know our FO is too dumb! They'll pick up Testaverde or something!

HELL NO! I'm a student. That's a nasty insult spk

RE: I will settle the argument!
 

HAHA, so you know that I never said anything about #1 picks right? And the truth shall set you free!

RE: I will settle the argument!
 

So what If Leinert becomes the next Elway or Aikman. You ready to pass on that?

RE: I will settle the argument!
 

A qb is going to get a diddly poo. We need to trade down and get as many picks as we can including trading most everyone on this team for picks... rebuild from the O-line and D. Amac start him this year and let him take the abuse until we have developed. Leinart and yes even Young to much of a gamble picking this high. Stud QB gets you no wheres if you can't protect him or play D.

RE: I will settle the argument!
 

I love the Gamble theory. The entire Draft is a gamble. You don't know who will get or or eat the most burgers. I don't want to be chumped like arizona and keep trading away top picks and get nowhere.
Take the gamble cause no one will fault us for picking any of the top three(young,bush,orleinert). At least we will have top talent. More picks equals more busts. How many picks from last draft stated for us besides our first rounder?

RE: I will settle the argument!
 

We stand a better shot with more picks to get some that pan out than we do with all our marbles on a QB and no body to block for him and a D that gives up big plays like no ones business.

RE: I will settle the argument!
 

All our marbles? That's one pick I believe. I think we would still have 5 other picks, including the 34th pick.

RE: I will settle the argument!
 

Hey Deuce, I was only talking about drinking man. Maybe you can meet Biloxi and I and we can all get drunk. I really don't care about being wrong just getting drunk every now and again.

RE: I will settle the argument!
 

haha alright cher

And about this silliness... we aren't going to trade all of these players for picks like people keep talking about because some of these guys, even if they aren't great, are just role players that every team needs. Also, our FO never makes these trades that seem to really upgrade the personnel...

Also, I believe our OLine can be REALLY good with some good coaching and some good health. Mayberry was a very good player in Philly. Bentley is a total stud. Brown has all of the gifts, but he just needs to be coached up. Then we have other guys that can be very good starters for us when somebody instills a little discipline and technique. I think the OLine has a lot of promise, and I think most of all, they need just to have some unity, and a sense of knowing who they're blocking next to. The Saints used like 10 different linemen last year at different positions every game. A little continuity will REALLY help to OLine.

I think our DLine is pretty good too. Obviously our DEs are amazing, especially with the emergence of the Manimal. I think Brian Young is still a very good, dependable starter at DT (didn't he lead the team in tackles?). I think if we added one more DT, then our DLine would be set.

There is no reason for AMac to play. He hasn't proven anything, and I think that if he was even close to being ready at the end of the season, then they probably would have thrown him in there. This guy apparently has shown nothing that made the coaches willing to put him in before Todd Bouman, and that's saying something. See how he does in the offseason, and then how he performs in a game situation in pre-season; then judge how game-ready he is. Right now tho, I still think he's a raw talent.