What's the Saints magic number?
 

I know this is faaaaaaaaaaaaaar too early to even think about it, but am I the only one getting excited with the thoughts of actually hearing the "magic number" for the Saints to clinch a playoff spot towards the end of the season?

Or even clinching the division?

With a win over Pittsburgh this weekend, with a record of 7-2 they would need a total team collapse to not make the playoffs. I just can't see Sean Payton allowing that to happen.

Once again, I know this is way too early to even start talking about but I am excited!

Augie

:lol:

RE: What
 

It is way too soon. There's too many possiblities for a playoff spot to figure out a magic number. If you were figuring one for the division it would be 9. Any combo of 9 Saints wins and Falcons losses would secure us the divison. But like I said, far far far too soon since the Saints dont even have 9 games left. Next week would allow us to make a true magic number.

RE: What
 

Far too early for Magic #.

For playoff (not divisional), look at the 3rd best record of teams that are not winning division.

Basicvally we are 2 games up on that team with 8 to play. That team = teams 'cos we have:
AF 5-3
CP 4-4
PE 4-4
DC 4-4
MV 4-4
SLR 4-4

Saints can help themselves bigtime by beating Dullards and Cats.

Other good news is that load of these have matchups against each other and so someone will lose games:

AF play CP, PE, DC,
CP play AF, PE, SLR
PE play AF, CP, DC
DC play AF, PE
MV play SLR
SLR play CP, MV

Brain hurts.

Geaux Saints.

RE: What
 

Those initals are the worst I have ever seen.

i mean no offense, but i had to read that 3 times before i understood it

there is no magic number... just go out every sunday and try to get the win... plain and simple.... if we needed only 4 games, i want them to win 5..... in 2002 we were 6-2 and everyone was talking "magic numbers" and look what happened.... i know everyone will say "this is a new team, new coach, new attitude" but realistically, nobody we play is going to come out and roll over and play dead just because he only have a couple of game we need to win.... just play ball, week in and week out....

Mathematically:
- to win the division, the number is 6 including beating the Falcons and the Panthers.
- to reach the playoffs, again the number is 6, regardless of whether they beat the Panthers or Falcons.

Wrong. The magic number is not 6.

If we win 6 games and the Falcons win all 8 then the Falcons will win the division. Therefore, mathematically, the number is not 6. Of course, as you eluded to, if you count the Falcons game as a win (which is foolish to do) then the magic number would be 6, but thats only after the victory.

The number, as we sit right this second, is 9.

Absolutely. Unlike baseball, basketball, and hockey where there are tons and tons of games, each NFL team only has 16 opportunities to advance their cause. In other sports you can have mini slumps without too much effect. But in the NFL losing 2 or 3 games can have you sitting home in January.
Bingo. You can watch important matchups from week to week. However, at the end of day the Saints need to take care of their own business.

And that starts tomorrow in Pittsburg. And don't be fooled by the record. Pittsburg is a very very dangerous team. They have both a top 10 offense and a top 10 defense. They've stumbled so far due to turnovers (24 so far). If Pittsburg plays a mistake free game, they can compete with anyone in the NFL including the Saints. It's not going to be a walk by any measure.

SFIAH

I do believe that was qualfied.

The qualification was that we win 6 including beating the Falcons and the Panthers. We do that we finish 12-4 with a 5-1 division record, a sweep of the Falcons, and a split with the Panthers, who have already lost to the Falcons.

So even if the Falcons and Panthers finish with their best possible records (each one going 7-1, but not both because they play each other again) then the Falcons could only finish 12-4 and the Panthers can only finish 11-5. In the case of the Falcons, we would have swept them, so we win the division. In the case of the Panthers, we finish one game ahead. Even in the case of a tie, if we beat the Panthers then it goes to division record, and they'd have at least 2 division losses if my math is right.

Now 12-4 and losing the division. So we lose both the Falcons and the Panthers, and the Falcons go 7-1 or 8-0. That means they beat the Panthers too so we finish ahead. Also I don't think there's any scenario where any of the current 4-4 teams can also go 8-0. Finally we'd be 9-3 in the conference.
All of the current 4-4 teams have at least 2 conference losses and of course would win their division if they go 8-0.
The 6 was qualfied. And I don't think we were talking about a true magic number, which is a combo of wins and losses. We're talking about Saints wins required to clinch a playoff berth.

It's all idle mathematical speculation anyway. There's way too much season to even start this discussion. The only task is to get to 7-2. If the team can keep their focus limited only to the task at hand, everything else will take care of itself.

SFIAH

Right now all I want is a win Sunday against the Steelers..

Absolutely the right attitude. We'd also like to get some help from the Giants to pull the Bears back towards the pack. It puts the Saints in the catbird seat for the #1 seed because they get to play the Giants down the road.

SFIAH

Of course I agree with you. My points were A)to assume a victory over Atlanta was foolish and B)the OP asked for a magic number. I did say it was too early and agree with the whole "one game at a time, this game is the only one that matters, insert another cliche, yada yada" stuff. The point is, as we sit now, its 9. Not assuming any victories or qualifying anything. You can also say, "assuming we win all of our games our magic number is 0". You cant "qualify" a magic number. Thats retarded.

... 9? You mean the Saints have to win 9 out of 8 games to go to the playoffs? It looks grim then...

... I guess you either didn't read the post or didn't comprehend it, and then you rushed to a belittling reply. That's what's foolish.

there's no way the magic number is 9 with 8 games left. The lowest it could be is 6 and the most likely number to make the playoffs is 7. But no matter what, it is way too early. Magic numbers in baseball don't become relevant until 90% of the games have been played, and with only a 16 game season, magic numbers are silly.

The whole reason why the number being 9 seems foolish is because its way too damn early to even consider a magic number. Any combination to make 9 gets us in, 5 wins a,d 4 losses, 6 and 3, whatever. But you are right, it is too early, which is why it seems imposible to be 9 with 8 left. It's just too early. To call the number 6 to win the division can not possibly be being that we can win 6 games and still lose the division.

The whole reason it is difficult to figure out is because its just way too early. No one belittled you, you just took it that way.

majic numbers???????????
8 no doubts
2 wins: against Atalnta and the Panthers
beat the rest of the NFC and AFC

:lol:

:lol: :lol:

I thought it was awful too! 8)

Hey maximkat. There is only one Who Dat in 03801, and that is me :wink:

hold on... let me get another beer and I`ll re-read this entire thread,,,,, you number crunching gurus are killing my buzz (I spent 15 min. trying to figure out who PE was)

I reckon it won't be time to be thinking playoffs for...four weeks if we can steal at least three of 'em. I also would like to schedule my up my postseason days off but I harken back to the 1993(?) season when our Saints started the season 5-0. I had visions of Vince Lombardi trophies dancing in my head (and I'm sure Tom "Boogie" Benson did too). When they finished 8-8 and missed the playoffs I vowed to myself to never get too high on a Saints season until it's mathematically sound. So right now my season begins with PITT. Go Saints.http://www.blackandgold.net/site/mod...s/image_14.gif

I believe most of us have the tempered approach. I know (because he has said it on multiple occasions) that Coach Payton has the "one game at a time approach".

But the two, tempered approach and thinking playoffs, really go hand in hand, because I believe you still need to have the goal in mind in order to focus on the current task.

As of this second the Saints have complete control over the #2 NFC seed. To keep it they need to focus today. Hand in hand.
I read a 1993 season recap here:

http://www.nosaintshistory.com/1993.htm

I'm now hoping that history does not repeat itself. Free agent QB has a hot start that sprials downhill after losing to the Steelers.

But there are enough differences I think we'll be alright. Payton is a new coach and red hot right now. Brees is a proven winner in what many would argue is the better conference (the AFC).
As it should.

SFIAH