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THE CONTENDERS

4. New Orleans
3. Indianapolis
Manning reached "As long as I'm healthy, and as long as I have a half-decent defense and skill guys who can make a few plays, pencil me in for 10-12 wins and a playoff spot" status about five years ago. (And he's better than ever, by the way.) Brees looks like he's assuming that same status this season. The beating hearts of their respective Super Bowl contenders, Brees and Manning have to be considered MVP favorites A and B in some order. (And there's no C.) I like New Orleans better than Indy right now only because of the Saints defense (faster, scarier) and the Superdome (one of the only home-field advantages left in the league).

Now, remember how Brady was regarded heading into the 2007 playoffs: 16-0, passing records, the new Montana, etc. Did you ever think in a million years that he'd be bounced from the previous paragraph completely in 20 months? From 2003 to 2005, Brady was Russell and Manning was Wilt. Things switched briefly when Indy won the Super Bowl. Brady seized it back with the Eff You season. If the Helmet Catch doesn't happen, not only does Brady become immortal, but now the Pats are opening up on Thursday night and we never see Bernard Pollard in Week 1. Nope. They lose the title and Brady gets wiped out in Week 1. From that point forward, Manning became Russell and Brees became Wilt. And Brady is on the outside looking in. At least for now. Crazy.

(I will now rub plutonium on my chest like it's Vicks Vapor Rub.)

Bill Simmons NFL power poll and Week 4 picks - ESPN