neugey

Ever year this time of year, I hate listening to relatively the same prognastocations by all the talking heads and magazines. They often take the "safe road" and go with obvious conclusions and the status quo belief. They don't account for the amount of change, and the rapid speed of change that sometimes occurs in the NFL. And they're freaking boring to read.

So I got fed up. This year, I predict a return to a little more overall parity in the NFL, in light of the great draft class bringing some of the woeful teams back toward respectability. And a few monumental downfalls by some of the larger market teams. The theme of this year is a rejuvenation of some of the small market or small money making teams ... now that the Saints have shown that it can be done . And for kicks I predict another first-time Super Bowl champion. And BTW I threw my Saints allegancies out the window while putting this together.

I went through the NFL schedule, so this outcome is actually mathmetically possible. Used instinct as much as I used insight. Actually it turned out to be a really fun assignment, and a nice prep for my fantasy draft. I'd encourage you all to do the same if you're bored waiting for the NFL season to begin.

Here goes ...

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Predictions
(x - division winner, * - playoff berth)

AFC:

x*MIA - will win division, top-tier offense with running games/wildcat/Marshall-improved passing game, 11-5
NE - even more pass happy, Brady will have great year but the team is in a transition year, 8-8
BUF - running game will emerge, defense will be respectable - Spiller/Jackson/Chan Gailey, 7-9
NYJ - Sanchez falls apart, karma comes back to haunty cocky Rex Ryan, defense slumps, 5-11

x*CIN - Great defense, balanced offense with great red-zone ability with TO/85/Gresham, 11-5
*BAL - A repeat performance of 2009 ... solid all-around offense, slightly improved D, 11-5
PIT - Leftwich/Big Ben put up good stats, running game absent again, defense up and down, 7-9
CLE - offense shows a few signs under Holmgren, Massaquoi shines, defense regresses further, 4-12

x*TEN - Defense steps up, Young/CJ/Britt become the Dallas-like triplets of 2010, 12-4
*IND - Age and SB loss takes some toll, defense takes a bit of a plunge, 10-6
HOU - Arian Foster emerges but Schaub has an off-year, defense falls apart, 5-11
JAC - Weak links and lack of depth exposed, Del Rio axed and Jax becomes a lottery team, 3-13

x*SD - Easy opening sched. Great play by RB Sproles, Bolts become run-and-shoot-esque. Rivers breaks out, 12-4
OAK - Defense looks better with continuity and better play on offense, 9-7
KC - Formidable passing attack, some defensive improvment, team on playoff bubble, 9-7
DEN - Dismissal of Marshall and Def coordinator haunts McDaniels, rebuilding and controversy ensue, 6-10

NFC:

x*DAL - Big D explodes in reg season, implode in playoffs under pressure to play SB "home game", 11-5
WAS - Offensive dynamo with Shannahan/McNabb prove DEN/PHI brass wrong. Defense has its ups and downs, 9-7
PHI - Kolb-led offense struggles and doesn't get hot until it's too late, 7-9
NYG - Offense has a tough go of it in 2010 and the defense is in shambles so Coughlin's on the outs, 4-12

x*MIN - Second go-around for Favre not quite as magical but good enough, 10-6
*GB - Team overcomes first-half injuries and run off a win streak in December to sneak into the playoffs, 9-7
DET - Marked improvement on both sides of the ball and weak schedule help them get to, get this, .500! 8-8
CHI - Cutler's interceptions, Martz offense and Julius Peppers does not a team make. Lovie loses job after Xmas, 5-11

*SEA - Carroll's underrated staff rejuvenates Seattle and performs miracles in a weak division, 12-4
ARI - The typical Cardiac Cardinals are undergoing changes again, break even at 8-8
STL - Bradford has a pretty good rookie season like Matt Ryan had and they luck out in a few games, 7-9
SF - Last year was a mirage; in 2010 injuries set back this team which needs a bit more depth, 5-11

*NO - More bumps in the road this time, but still win division in a tiebreaker, make noise in playoffs, 9-6-1
*CAR - Rebuilding goes suprisingly well. Panthers find some rookie gems, continue strong late-2009 play, 9-6-1
ATL - Defense struggles even more than last year, injuries hit again and they loose some nailbiters, 6-10
TB - The Bucs prove to be still too young. Have some nice players but prove to be a few years away, 6-10

Playoffs:
Round 1:
@MIA over IND
BAL over @CIN
GB over @MIN
@NO over CAR

Round 2:
BAL over @SD
@TEN over MIA
GB over @SEA
NO over @DAL

Round 3:
@TEN over BAL
GB over @NO

SB prediction - TEN over GB, 41-19, management's faith in Fisher pays off

Awards:
Offensive ROY: Russell Okung SEA (first ever OT selected for this award)
Defensive ROY: Eric Berry KC
COTY: Pete Carroll SEA
Comeback player of the Year: Leon Washington SEA
NFL MVP: Philip Rivers SD
NFL Offensive POY: Ray Rice BAL
NFL Defensive POY: Demarcus Ware DAL
SB MVP: Chris Johnson TEN