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Breakdown of Curtis Lofton

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From Pat Yasinskas at ESPN, he says the numbers show Lofton is a solid player.

Breakdown of Curtis Lofton, LB being courted by Saints | NOLA.com

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Numbers say Lofton every-down linebacker

By Pat Yasinskas

There’s a lot of talk out there about how Atlanta free agent Curtis Lofton isn’t a three-down linebacker. At the very least, it’s coming from fans and media members. It also might be coming from teams, as Lofton has been making the rounds, but has yet to sign with anyone.

Maybe new Atlanta defensive coordinator Mike Nolan doesn’t view Lofton as a guy he wants on the field on passing downs, and maybe that’s why the middle linebacker was allowed to test free agency in the first place. Maybe other teams are buying into the same theory, and maybe that’s why Lofton hasn’t gotten a big contract.

But I’m wondering if this knock on Lofton is fair and accurate. As far as being fair, I’ll admit Lofton isn’t the best cover guy in the league. But I also don’t think he’s a total liability, unless you put him into one-on-one coverage against someone like New Orleans tight end Jimmy Graham. There are a lot of linebackers that struggle with Graham, and that’s why more and more teams are using defensive backs to cover tight ends. In my eyes, Lofton is average (maybe slightly below average) as a cover guy for a middle linebacker.

That’s why I’m wondering how the perception suddenly became that he’s horrible in coverage. The numbers say Lofton was good enough to be a three-down linebacker for the Falcons the past three seasons. The numbers say he was good enough to be on the field for more than 95 percent of Atlanta’s defensive snaps each of the past three seasons.

I went back and looked them up. Lofton played 99 percent (986 of 996) of Atlanta’s defensive snaps last season. In 2010, Lofton was on the field for 933 of Atlanta’s 977 defensive snaps (95.5 percent). In 2009, Lofton participated in 986 of 1,034 defensive snaps (95.4 percent). The only season he wasn’t a three-down linebacker was 2008. That’s when Lofton was a rookie, and the Falcons also had Keith Brooking and Michael Boley. That season, Lofton played in just 55.6 percent (573 of 1,030) of the defensive snaps. But, after that season, Boley and Brooking were gone, and Lofton was elevated to full-time status.

Whatever Lofton lacks in coverage skills, I think he makes up for with his ability as a run-stuffer and a leader. Maybe he doesn’t deserve to be paid like a top-five linebacker. But I think Lofton is a linebacker who can be on the field most of the time.

The Saints had him in for a visit Monday, and the Buccaneers are keeping an eye on Lofton’s situation (mainly to see if his asking price drops). The Falcons already have moved on by signing Lofa Tatupu, and they have second-year pro Akeem Dent.

But the Saints seem to be looking for someone to replace Jonathan Vilma, and the Bucs aren’t sure if they’re keeping Mason Foster in the middle or moving him to the outside. I say one of these two teams should take a shot on Lofton. He’s an upgrade over what the Saints and Bucs currently have in the middle.

For that matter, I also think Lofton is better than what the Falcons currently are planning on going with at middle linebacker. Maybe an Atlanta return remains a possibility, if Lofton's price tag falls far enough.

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcsouth/pos...-every-down-lb

http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2012/0320...ton_ps_600.jpg

Nice to see Pat writing about something else than the Bountygate and/or how severely the Saints should be punished.

He'll change his tune if we sign him. He'll write a rebuttal to the article he wrote himself hating on Lofton and what a terrible fit it will be.

He didn't do that good of a job with the background work... again.

He failed to mention that Lofton turned down a Failclown extension contract during last season, because he felt that they were low-balling him with the contract offer.

So, there might be some bad feeling between Lofton and the Failclowns FO because of that earlier occurrence.

Also, he didn't mention that Lofton had knee surgeries last off-season, but had fully recuperated to take part in the first practices after the CBA was finalized.

Eaxctly LOL... He is romancing Lofton to encourage the Saints to sign him then he will give us an F for his free agent singing.. LOL

I'm a homer.. I want a Sooner wearing black and gold... I also want a leader on the field for the defense. His game IQ is very high. He doesn't quit.

Maybe he should have called this a semi-breakdown of Curtis Lofton.
On a side note there are 4 defensive downs right? If he is on the field 4 of the defensive snaps then he's got to be a special teamer too right? He doesn't mention any special team contribution. Not that it really matters. Just curious.

I did a decent breakdown on him in a past article on Thursday or so... Maybe be better. Let me go find it.

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Originally Posted by FinSaint (Post 389443)

http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2012/0320...ton_ps_600.jpg

Nice to see Pat writing about something else than the Bountygate and/or how severely the Saints should be punished.

Go figure he's tackling a Saint! :cursing:

:p

The more I read about him the more I like him. He's a team leader and he's smart enough to start as a rookie. I just wonder how much we'll pay for an OLB'er? We can't really afford to play him at end either. A little mix of both from a creative coach might do even more for his career.

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Originally Posted by Rugby Saint II (Post 389516)

I'm telling you, if we get him, Vilma is gone.

I could see Vilma restructuring, but I don't see us releasing him.

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Originally Posted by |Mitch| (Post 389533)

I could see Vilma restructuring, but I don't see us releasing him.

A. Vilma won't be a back-up, even with a restructure. Lofton is a better MLB at Vilma's age.

B. $6.6M cap hit in 2012. Releasing him saves us $3,4 (according to Times-Picayune)

C. He is facing suspension of likely half, if not the whole season.

Rumor I saw on another site (grain of salt please), is that Lofton was looking for 8-9 Million/year.

That could explain why we haven't signed him.

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Originally Posted by Danno (Post 389544)

Rumor I saw on another site (grain of salt please), is that Lofton was looking for 8-9 Million/year.

That could explain why we haven't signed him.

Could very well be. I don't think he's worth that much. I could see $5M though.

we'd have to release Vilma + someone else first and pray that Lofton doesn't back-out of the deal. Not happening...

Unless I'm totally wrong in how I think the salary cap works

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Originally Posted by |Mitch| (Post 389547)

we'd have to release Vilma + someone else first and pray that Lofton doesn't back-out of the deal. Not happening...

Unless I'm totally wrong in how I think the salary cap works

I think we can go over the cap right now, we just have to be under it by a certain date, but I don't know what that date is.

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Originally Posted by |Mitch| (Post 389547)

we'd have to release Vilma + someone else first and pray that Lofton doesn't back-out of the deal. Not happening...

Unless I'm totally wrong in how I think the salary cap works

He agrees to financial terms, someone restructures, release Vilma, sign deal = profit.

Quite a few people who can restructure to give us wiggle room. The Saints just have to ask them.

so if he does want 8-9 million, would he be worth that?

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Originally Posted by Danno (Post 389555)

I think we can go over the cap right now, we just have to be under it by a certain date, but I don't know what that date is.

I know you had to be under the cap by the start of free agency. Not sure about any other dates. I'd have to look at it.

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Originally Posted by |Mitch| (Post 389561)

so if he does want 8-9 million, would he be worth that?

NO. I don't think so. Maybe 5-6, but we can't afford that, especialy with Brees demanding too much.

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Originally Posted by |Mitch| (Post 389561)

so if he does want 8-9 million, would he be worth that?

Not $9M. Ray Lewis only makes $7. He'd be about a $4-$6 IMO. Based on the breakdown I did of him, he's solid. Definitely worth the $6.6M cap hit Vilma would carry.

Yeah, I just don't see the Saints paying Lofton (or even being able to) that type of money - $8-9M/yr.

A good comparison is the Ahmad Brooks contract the 49ers gave him in February - 6-years for $44.5M with $17.5M guaranteed. That's an average of $7.4M/yr.

Brooks is 27, so just a little older than Lofton, but IMHO Brooks is a (much) better player than Lofton is, although they play different roles - Brooks being an OLB in a 3-4 base defense.

Paul Posluszny is making an average of $7M/yr, Chad Greenway is making $8.2/yr, and DeMeco Ryans is making $8M/yr - these are all MLBs, around the same age as Lofton, and all are better players than Lofton.

Comparing to those 3 MLBs, Lofton should be making around $5-6M/yr, but the salary market isn't always fair and equal.

Hawthorne might be more affordable, but it seems like the Saints might be targeting Lofton as their primary target.

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Originally Posted by FinSaint (Post 389612)

Good comparison. I think they want Lofton due to his dominance. Pay extra for the top notch performer. I think all the courting they're doing is trying to "impress" him to take less cash. If he buys into the system + the winning = less money for a ring.

I like, no looove the fact that Lofton plays so many snaps.

Could you imagine such a healthy player in New Orleans? (shocking)

But I don't care how many snaps you play - if you can't cover the pass, you're not worth the money.

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Originally Posted by Danno (Post 389544)

Rumor I saw on another site (grain of salt please), is that Lofton was looking for 8-9 Million/year.

That could explain why we haven't signed him.

We have a winner...:bng:

Considering the level he's played, age, projections forward - I should think 5mil per annum increasing 15% each year for four years + fifth season option, 10 mil guaranteed, 5.5 mil signing bonus should be appropriate contract.

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Originally Posted by jeanpierre (Post 389627)

Where do I sing? :-)

Kamerion Wimbley reportedly signed a 5-yr $35M contract, which amounts to a $7M/yr average salary, so if Lofton is looking for a $8-9M/yr contract - think again.

NFL.com Blogs » Blog Archive Ex-Raiders LB Wimbley close to signing deal with Titans «

Stephen Tulloch is probably an even better comparison to Lofton's skill-set, and his new 5-year contract with the Lions is believed to be for around $40M, which would equate to an average yearly salary of $8M/yr.

Detroit Lions re-sign Tulloch among others | Yardbarker.com

There's no way a team should be paying Lofton what Wimbley and Tulloch are being payed, at least in my opinion.