Odds and Sods
 

I don't oddsmakers. They always seem to be grapsing at straws in a league where parity is king. You do not have to look very far to see that is the case, parity.The New Orleans Saints are a curosity in the NFL right now. We do not seem to be the basement dwellers we once were under Ditka but at the same time in many people opinions, albeit our critics, we havent yet reached the level of where we can be considered winners. It is ironic to me that people in the media put people like Donovan Mcnabb on a pedestal and worship everything that he does. Meanwhile, who are these Saints? These guys who wear black and gold and even though are a little undsicplined at times, have a team that is FAR SUPERIOR then a team like the Eagles or the Rams. I wish that some people would stop listening to what the Vegas oddsmakers say and all the predictions that many magazines put out in June and July. Because it all comes down to wants it the most. After all, The Oddsmakers are not the ones I pay $50 to comeand see every fall in New Orleans.

Odds and Sods
 

Hey, I agree with ya killer. If the oddsmakers were so great at predicting games. They would be billionaires, sitting on their private island. I don\'t pay a lot of attention to \'em either...........

Odds and Sods
 

i agree. Most of these \'experts\' are biased (which is natural), and their pre-season predictions are crap.

BUT i remember last year, i was on a plane back home to Louisiana, and this guy had one of those pre-season magazines that breaks down each team and gives a final rating to each team. So the guy sees me looking at it, and being a gentleman, he gave it to me when he was done.

I was all excited (as all Saints fans are before the season starts), and they had the NFC South in this order: Carolina, Atlanta, Saints, Bucs. It blew me away... Panthers?? They picked them to go far in the playoffs. This was the only time I have seen a publication like that be pretty darn good. I mean nobody i know thought that, even during the season.

I am trying to remember the name of the publication so I can see what they have us as this year.

Odds and Sods
 

Wow - now if this isn\'t a Saint fan\'s thread I don\'t know what is. It just makes me chuckle.

I guess you can color me a critic then. Our last three seasons: 7-9, 9-7, 8-8. That\'s 24-24. Now, I\'m no rocket scientist, but don\'t you have to be ABOVE .500 to be considered a winner? Adding in the fact that historically this is one of the losingest franchise in NFL history... you\'re right, I can\'t see any reason why those no-good nimrods parading around as \"analysts\" don\'tt pick the Saints to be winners every season. By the way, most of the critics I saw last season had us finishing third in the division... Vick doesn\'t get hurt and that is exacly what would have happened.

HA HA HA. Billy, you\'re great. Most of the oddsmakers are casinos. Yeah, I see a whole lot of casinos going belly up, don\'t you? Vegas just keeps shrinking every day. These casinos set a line by which they stand to make or lose millions of dollars. Think they might put a little time and effort in to making sure that they get it right?

Odds and Sods
 

HA HA HA. Billy, you\'re great. Most of the oddsmakers are casinos. Yeah, I see a whole lot of casinos going belly up, don\'t you? Vegas just keeps shrinking every day. These casinos set a line by which they stand to make or lose millions of dollars. Think they might put a little time and effort in to making sure that they get it right? [/quote:b573aec1ca]

Must I always educate you, WhoDat. ;)

This article is talking about teams overall record for 16-games. These guys in Vegas are making their money on WEEKLY NFL games that INCLUDE a SPREAD that has to be covered. Their not making too much money WITHOUT that SPREAD. See if you can contact your local bookie and get him to let you bet on ANY games without having to cover the spread.

How well do you think these guys in Vegas would do if folks could just bet on teams straight up? They would probably go belly-up wouldn\'t they?

So, picking teams straight up is one thing. Covering the spread is another. That\'s why I pay very little attention to them.

Oh, it ain\'t hard to pick most teams to finish around 8-8 and come within a game or two of being right in a league where parity rules. Which is basically what this guy did. Except he gave the elite teams a couple of more wins and the cellar dwellers a couple of less wins.

What ya think, WhoDat?? :P







[Edited on 5/6/2004 by GumboBC]

Odds and Sods
 

Yes Billy, you can bet on individual games, winner/loser, spreads, who will score first, and a whole slew of other things. Shall I remind you of how much money I made last year doing just that?

These \"odds-makers\" ALWAYS put out lines around this time of year, do they not? Odds of making the playoffs, odds of winning it all... how often are they wrong?

Let me ask you this Billy - how many games do YOU think the Saints will win this year?

Odds and Sods
 

I\'m no gambling expert. As a matter of fact, I never bet on the games. But, I have never heard of any place where you can bet on indivdual games without having to cover the line. Maybe, but I don\'t think so.

Yeah, they do always put out odds on a variety of things. However, this is \"fools gold.\" Just like every game in the casino........the odds are against you. These guys aren\'t stupid.

Do you know why the \"line\" on a football game changes? It\'s because a lot of money is bet on a certain team to win and they raise the \"line\" to cover their ***.

And as far as how often they are wrong about their preseason rankings. Well, like I said, it isn\'t hard to predict 3/4 of the teams to finish 8-8 and give the elite teams 2 wins over .500 and the cellar dwellers 2 wins less than .500. I can do the samething and make a killing if I can get enough suckers to bet against me.

Well, 8-8 of course. That way if they only win 6 then I only missed by 2 games and if they win 10 games then I only missed by 2 games. If they happen to finish 8-8 in a league where parity rules, then I\'m a genius. Yep, 8-8. I come out smelling like a rose any way you cut it.

Of course, there are teams like the Panthers that come out of no where. I guess in a case like that I\'ll just have to be wrong just like the \"Vegas Experts\" are. :P


[Edited on 2/6/2004 by GumboBC]

[Edited on 2/6/2004 by GumboBC]

Odds and Sods
 

Remind ME...and tell me where I can go to bet win/lose, straight up. I see an extended vacation in my future! This is a serious request. I don\'t bet much, but I\'ve always been shy \'cause of the point spread.

Odds and Sods
 

saintfan - There is no place to bet on the games \"straight up\" If that\'s the case I\'ll put $5,000 on the Patriots vs. Chargers game. ;)


Now, let\'s examine these \"Vegas Experts\" preseason rankings. I want everyone to read this quote by Mike Detillier VERY CAREFULLY. At first glance, it appears the \"Vegas Experts\" are geniuses. Just check out what they are really doing though....


Not bad, right? Here are the over/ under totals for all 32 NFL clubs:

Of course you would put these 3 teams at the top. But notice how they use \" ½\". What that means is if any of these teams wins 12 games the \"Vegas Experts\" are techincally within 1 game of being correct in their prediction. Have you ever seen a team win ½ of a game? Notice they purposely gave all these elite teams a low prediction in the number of wins. Why? Because they already have the 12 game prediction covered with-in a game of being right. And if they only win 9 games, they still are technically within a game of being right. It\'s all perception. Believe me, these guys arrange things so they appear to be able to be right. Within a game...Yeah, right.

Also notice the \"Vegas Experts\" were only within 1-game of their prediction for 24 of the 32 totals for NFL teams. That means even though they are making things easy on themselves by using the \"½\" -- they were still way off the mark 8 times.

Anyway, they have the teams ranked about where you would want them if you were trying to get folks to bet. I see nothing special about any of it. It\'s all in the odds.

Here are the rest of the teams.

Kansas City Chiefs, 10
Tennessee Titans, 10

St. Louis Rams, 9½
Green Bay Packers, 9½

Dallas Cowboys, 9
Miami Dolphins, 9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 9
Denver Broncos, 9
Washington Redskins, 9
Atlanta Falcons, 9
Baltimore Ravens, 9
Seattle Seahawks, 9
New York Jets, 9

Minnesota Vikings, 8½
Carolina Panthers, 8½

Cincinnati Bengals, 7½
Jacksonville Jaguars, 7½
Buffalo Bills, 7½
Oakland Raiders, 7½
Pittsburgh Steelers, 7½
New Orleans Saints, 7½
Cleveland Browns, 7 ½

Chicago Bears, 7

San Francisco 49ers, n/a*

Detroit Lions, 6½
New York Giants, 6½
Houston Texans, 6½

Arizona Cardinals, 5½

San Diego Chargers, 4½




[Edited on 2/6/2004 by GumboBC]

Odds and Sods
 

Whodat...
I thought injuries were no excuse. We suffered the 2nd most injuries in NFL history and you say if Atlanta hadn\'t suffered 1 stinking injury to one player they\'d have finished above us? With the 32nd ranked defense in the NFL? NO fricking way!
By that logic if we hadn\'t suffered so many key injuries we\'d have finished 14-2.

Vegas makes money by how people bet. The casual NFL fan probably thinks the Saints are a bad team that didn\'t improve because we didn\'t address the CB issue.
Vegas will make a ton of money off of people who bet the Saints won\'t win over 7 games. They know exactly how the majority will bet and guess what... It ain\'t gonna be the over.
Vegas knows the Saints will probably win over 7 games
Vegas knows that most people will bet against that.
They definitely put in the time to get it right.

Odds and Sods
 

Seriously people. Beuller? Beuller? Anyone?

Odds and Sods
 

This section on sports betting shall focus mainly on the NFL. First lets start with the basics and learn how to read an odds sheet. Here is a section from the Suncoast for the NFL on Nov 30, 2003


http://wizardofodds.com/games/sports...Odds_25pct.jpg

Let\'s look at each column one at a time.

The first column of numbers is the bet number. When you make a bet the writers prefer you list the bet number but it is not required.

The second column is the teams playing. Generally the team listed on top is the visiting team and the team listed on bottom is the home team.

The third column is the time of the game. In Las Vegas it is based on Pacific time but Internet sportbooks use Eastern time.

The fourth column is very important. Almost always one team will be favored to win over the other. The favored team will have a negative number in the same row, called the point spread. This is how much the favored team is expected to win by. In this example the Giants are favored to beat the Bills by 3.5 points. So, if you wish to bet on the Giants against the spread then the giants must win by 4 or more points for the bet to win. If you bet on Buffalo against the spread then the bet will win if Buffalo wins the game or loses by 3 or less points. Thus the expression, \"It isn\'t whether you win or lose, it\'s whether you cover the spread.\" This also explains why fans are sometimes still very emotional in a lopsided game, because the outcome against the spread can still go either way. In the event the two teams are evenly matched there will be a \"P\" or \"PK\", meaning \"Pick\" or that you can pick who will win without a point spread. The other number is the over/under line. You may bet whether the total points in the game will go over or under this number. In both point spread and total bets the probability of winning is about 50% so the bettor must usually lay $110 to win $100, or any proportion therin. For example if I bet $22 my winnings would be $20. So try to keep these bets in increments of $11.

The fifth column is the money line. If you wish to bet on who will win without any point spread then the money line is for you. To make it fair you must lay odds if betting on the favorite and you get odds if betting on the underdog. In the above example the money line on Buffalo the underdog is +145. That means a $100 bet will win $145, or any proportion therein. A money line on New York the favorite is -165, meaning that you must bet $165 to win $100.
(So, it can be done. But, it is hardly a \"straight-up\" bet. And the money line changes depending on how much of an underdog that team is. And they CAN call off all bets on the money line. These guys aren\'t stupid and they will NOT allow you to cash in on a sure thing.)


The sixth column shows the bet numbers if you wish to bet on the half time outcome.
The seventh column shows the point spread and over/under line for the outcome at half time. In this case New York is a 1.5 point favorite and the total points is 17.5.





[Edited on 5/6/2004 by GumboBC]

Odds and Sods
 

I knew I should have finished college. :(

Odds and Sods
 

Thanks Billy - for once you beat me to the punch about something accurate!! ;)

There is almost nothing that you cannot bet on. Hey Saintfan, you want the opportunity, come up to Chicago and I\'ll introduce you to some Traders I know who bet hundreds, sometimes thousands, of dollars on one thing or another on every single trip up and down a basketball court in a game.

Odds and Sods
 

Those folks obviously make too much money! ;)

:P

Odds and Sods
 

And they don\'t have a clue what to do with it.

Odds and Sods
 

WhoDat --

I\'m not letting you off the hook that easily.... ;)

As I stated way back in this thread.....There is NO such thing as betting straight up on football in Vegas. Now, you wanted to argue that point. And I have seen NO evidence that you have provided??

You talk about the \"Vegas Experts\" being so great about picking winners. But, isn\'t the truth they make their money on the odds by incorperating a \"spread\" in the picks?

And when betting on a game without using the \"spread\" isn\'t it true that they make the \"beter\" assume a LARGE risk by incorperating a \"money line\" that THEY set and it changes depending on how much of an underdog a team is? And isn\'t it also true that they can call off ALL bets on certain games if they feel it to be neccessary?

And don\'t they do all of that because if they didn\'t they would probably go belly up?

Just admit I\'m right. I just need to hear it once, man. Just one damn time...LMAO

Give me my just due.......LOLOLOL :P :P :P


[Edited on 5/6/2004 by GumboBC]

Odds and Sods
 

I just wanted to thank Billy for that explanation (being serious). I knew what most of those colums meant, but not all. I have now learned my one thing for the day. Thanks.

Odds and Sods
 

LMAO - OK, yes Billy you\'re right. The BILLIONAIRES out in Vegas who make millions upon millions of dollars every year by betting on football clearly know nothing about football. Nor do the \"experts\" who are generally former players or people who are paid highly and who spend their entire lives doing nothing but following football and reporting about it. All of these people know nothing about the game. CLEARLY, we should all listen to you. In fact, whatever Billy says this team will go this season - take it to the bank. That 12-4 or 13-3 number last season was pure gold. Six games into the season and the Saints already eclipsed the losses he said they would have on the season. WOW. Yes Billy, you are right. LMAO. ;)

Odds and Sods
 

Is it just me or does no one else notice WhoDat avoids the issues and then instead of admiting he\'s wrong; he contiues to make false statements. Like this one for example:

WhoDat admits the guys that pick the games in Vegas are usually ex-football players. Now, if they are so great at picking winners and beating the system in Vegas then surly some of these ex-players are making \"billions\" by beating the system themselves.

WhoDat - Name me ONE player that is beating the system?? Just ONE?? What about Montana? Elway? Just name me ONE ex-player that is making billions or even millions?

It ain\'t no beating the system WhoDat. Because that\'s EXACTLY what it is. It\'s a SYSTEM designed to stack the odds against ANYONE. It has NOTHING to do with picking the WINNER. It has to do with them stacking the odds against you by using a point spread. Or, a \"money line.\"

You are as hard headed as the day is long.

I can lead a horse to water..............Now step up and take a drink damn it... ;) :P









[Edited on 5/6/2004 by GumboBC]

Odds and Sods
 

Thank you Lord for once it is not me.............YES :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D

Odds and Sods
 

:yltype:
very nice

Odds and Sods
 

:yltype:
very nice job

Odds and Sods
 

:yltype:
very nice job BC

Odds and Sods
 

I remember about 6 years ago a Superbowl. I think it was GB vs Denver.... the line for out right win was something to the effect of 4:1 for GB to win. I thought that would be sure money..... put up 1000 dollars and make 250.... luckily Im not a betting man : )

edit : corrected a spelling error

[Edited on 5/6/2004 by Bise]