An X-factor in the Sean Payton decision
 

As of this morning, the New England Patriots and Chicago Bears have seven players scheduled to carry 2013 salary cap numbers of $3 million or higher. The New Orleans Saints have 15, including the gaudy $17.4 milion number quarterback Drew Brees will carry based on his new five-year deal signed in July.

Cap numbers, of course, can and will change. But as of today, the Saints are in major trouble if they're going to use any avenue except the fixed-cost NFL Draft to repair their defense in 2013. The 15 heaviest contracts the Saints have, as of this morning, take up 87 percent of their 2013 salary cap. The NFL is scheduled to have a cap number of about $121 million per team next year, though that varies from team to team depending on cap credits and money carried over from the previous season.

Think of that: The Saints have 28 percent of their 53-man roster taking up 87 percent of the cap room. And they'll be at least $25 million over the $121 million cap at the start of the free-agency period.

Player 2013 Salary

QB Drew Brees $17.40 million

DE Will Smith $14.50m

G Jahri Evans$9.86m

LB Jonathan Vilma $8.63m

WR Marques Colston $6.60m

G Ben Grubbs $7.30m

S Roman Harper $7.10m

LB Curtis Lofton $7.10m

CB Jabari Greer $5.42m

LB David Hawthorne $4.76m

DT Brodrick Bunkley $4.70m

WR Lance Moore $4.47m

CB Malcolm Jenkins $3.88m

RB Darren Sproles $3.75m

Of course, that will have to change. But even if the Saints can re-do huge pacts like Will Smith's, and even if they make a veteran such as Jonathan Vilma or David Hawthorne a cap casualty, the front office will still find it tough to keep this team intact for the long haul. (And cutting Vilma would still incur a $2.6 million cap charge for the 2013 portion of his pro-rated signing bonus.) How, for instance, will they be able to re-sign left tackle Jermon Bushrod, scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent?

As Mike Florio pointed out on NBC last night, the Saints now have a 13-week edge on the competition to get a valid contract done with Payton -- because Payton cannot be reinstated for at least 13 weeks, until the day after the Super Bowl, and thus can't speak to any other team about a job until then. New Orleans is the lead dog in the pursuit of Payton, and Dallas is a clear No. 2, though there's no guarantee the Cowboys' job will open up yet. For the record, some of the onerous cap numbers in 2013 that will weigh on Payton's decision are on the right.


Read More: 49ers-Rams tie; more Week 10 thoughts - Peter King - SI.com

Re: An X-factor in the Sean Payton decision
 

We heard the same thing last year, and the year before.

Renegotiations and cap friendly contracts are what Loomis does best. I have absolutely ZERO worries we can improve this defense with both free-agents and draft picks.

Re: An X-factor in the Sean Payton decision
 

Mickey (The Magician) Loomis will get it done.

Re: An X-factor in the Sean Payton decision
 

Just like last year, we were over the cap and couldn't get the deal with Brees done. Somehow Loomis signs 4 stud FAs and gets Drew a monster contract, I'm not worried...

Re: An X-factor in the Sean Payton decision
 

Gaudy? Your a small man Peter King...

Re: An X-factor in the Sean Payton decision
 

wow we pay Roman Harper more than Darren Sproles....
Just wow....

Re: An X-factor in the Sean Payton decision
 

We know that none of Harper's salary is used to buy Grecian Formula!

Re: An X-factor in the Sean Payton decision
 

Everyone on that list is paid more than Sproles.

Re: An X-factor in the Sean Payton decision
 

Spotrac has some of the cap hits differently as presented on this article.

Vilma, as an example, has a cap hit of $6.5M next season and not $8.63M, so I don't know how trustworthy some of these numbers are?!

There are some minor discrepancies in some of the other cap hits as well, but none as big as the one in Vilma's cap hit.

Re: An X-factor in the Sean Payton decision
 

I feel confident will smith won't be making 14.5M, that's a big start.

I feel safe in saying that Harper won't earn over 7M next year.

Re: An X-factor in the Sean Payton decision
 

Theres a few that will be cut i know they are guaranteed money but i.m sure a few will be picked up buy other teams that gets us off the hook. Right?

Re: An X-factor in the Sean Payton decision
 

At least partially.

Re: An X-factor in the Sean Payton decision
 

How so? If we cut someone their bonus money is accellerated toward our cap and being picked up by another teams doesn't change anything, right?

Is there some new CBA stuff I'm missing?

Re: An X-factor in the Sean Payton decision
 

I don't know, I might remember it wrong.

I, at least, recall that if you cut a player during the season and another team picks him up - you are only responsible for part of that player's salary.

I don't know if the same goes if a player is cut during the offseason or I might be thinking of the NHL CBA.

Re: An X-factor in the Sean Payton decision
 

Get rid of Smith, Vilma, and maybe Harper to start and then trim the fat with underlings like Shanle etc. We should be fine. Same thing every year. Loomis is good at this stuff.

Re: An X-factor in the Sean Payton decision
 

I fully believe Mickey will get it done but we must be prepared to see some of our favorite players gone at the end of the season. Will Smith is still pretty good but we need better and we would have to restructure his contract so much that I don't believe he'll go for it and will probably be cut. Vilma is another player that I believe restructured last year but he's on the back end of his career and still costs too much. When we signed Lofton the writing was on the wall and now with Hawthorne and Casillias and a draft pick, I just think Vilma is to expensive to keep. Jahari Evans might be willing to restructure for an extension, and Quddus is up and coming and I believe making Harper expendable or hopefully trade-able. That's going to leave us with at least one very difficult cut to make or trade, I'd say Ingram would do just fine.

Re: An X-factor in the Sean Payton decision
 

Also, one has to wonder if Loomis will make a real effort to re-sing Graham to a new deal during this coming offseason and not risk taking his contract into its last year.

Graham has certainly earned the right to get paid more than $700K.

Re: An X-factor in the Sean Payton decision
 

Dont forget the franchise tag... If used correctly, it will lower cap hit and buy us time.

Re: An X-factor in the Sean Payton decision
 

Add Vilma to that list too ...

Re: An X-factor in the Sean Payton decision
 

Who do you think they'll tag next year? I totally forgot about that...

Re: An X-factor in the Sean Payton decision
 

That will depend on a lot of things.. Restructuring could take some players out of the picture. The FT for a given position could be higher than what some players new contracts would be...

If you had asked in August I would have said Jimmy Graham but since he has the most dropped passes in the league presently I would have to rethink that.

Re: An X-factor in the Sean Payton decision
 

Not sure why's he dropping passes but I'd hate to even consider losing Jimmy Graham. Also isn't he good till '15?

Re: An X-factor in the Sean Payton decision
 

Graham is under contract for next season, so he will not get the franchise tag in any case.

I was just wondering if Loomis will try to get a new long-term contract signed with him this offseason as opposed to letting the contract run into its last year and possibly the next offseason after that.




Nope, he'll be an UFA after next season.

Re: An X-factor in the Sean Payton decision
 

He'll likely be suspended for the season so his contract won't matter.

Re: An X-factor in the Sean Payton decision
 

I'll pay Will Smith to leave!

Re: An X-factor in the Sean Payton decision
 

I see at least 3 names on that list that probably won't be on the team next year. (As much as I hate to see any of them go)