A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers
 

2nd place has never been third the next year
3rd has never been first the next year

1st place finishers the next year
02 bucs-3rd
03 panthers-3rd
04 falcons-3rd
05 bucs-4th
06 saints-3rd
07 bucs-3rd
08 panthers-3rd
09 saints-2nd
10 falcons-2nd
11 saints-3rd
12 falcons
Prediction--this trend is real and falcons are in for a regressing year, I say they finish third.

2nd place finishers
02 falcons-4th
03 saints-2nd
04 saints-4th
05 panthers-2nd
06 panthers-2nd
07 panthers-1st
08 falcons-2nd
09 falcons-1st
10 saints-1st
11 falcons-1st
12 panthers
Prediction-I think the panthers under these numbers win the division or stay second again.

Third place finishers
02 saints-2nd(bucs third, falcons fourth)
03 bucs-4th(panthers third, saints 2nd)
04 panthers-2nd(falcons third, saints fourth)
05 falcons-3rd(bucs fourth, panthers second)
06 falcons-4th(saints third, panthers second)
07 saints-4th(bucs third, panthers first)
08 bucs-4th(panthers third, falcons second)
09 panthers-4th(saints second, falcons first)
10 bucs-4th(falcons second, saints first)
11 panthers-2nd(saints third, falcons first)
12 saints
Prediction-If the trend continues of no third place team winning division, then saints are 2nd or 4th. Bad news if the bucs win division.

Fourth place finishers
02 panthers-1st
03 falcons-1st
04 bucs-1st
05 saints-1st
06 bucs-1st
07 falcons-2nd
08 saints-1st
09 bucs-3rd
10 panthers-3rd
11 bucs-4th
12 bucs
Prediction-4th, 1st, or 2nd. If Bucs are contending they will contend hard and end up first or second. If they fall off again, they will just collapse and end up last again.


So with those options we do it this way
Division winner's placement the previous year
03 panthers-4th
04 falcons-4th
05 bucs-4th
06 saints-4th
07 bucs-4th
08 panthers-2nd
09 saints-4th
10 falcons-2nd
11 saints-2nd
12 falcons-2nd
Prediction- Panthers were second last year, bucs were 4th. It really could go either way. 3rd has never been first and first has never repeated.

Second place finishers
03 saints-3rd
04 saints-2nd
05 panthers-3rd
06 panthers-2nd(4th place saints were 1st)
07 panthers-2nd(4th place bucs were 1st)
08 falcons-4th(panthers were 1st after three runner ups)
09 falcons-2nd(1st was last place saints)
10 saints-1st(first time first finishes runner up)
11 falcons-1st(2nd place saints was 1st)
12 panthers-3rd(2nd place falcons were first)
13 Prediction-Is 4th place exempt here or is it next for bucs. Third place saints could be here as well as 2nd place panthers. Again, a three way race here.

Third place finishers(just in case)
03 bucs-1st
04 panthers-1st
05 falcons-1st
06 falcons-3rd(2nd place panthers stayed second)
07 saints-1st(2nd place panthers stayed second)
08 bucs-1st
09 panthers-1st
10 bucs-4th(first time 4th finishes 3rd)
11 panthers-4th
12 saints-1st
13 Prediction-Appears this is 1st falcons

Fourth place finishers
03 falcons-2nd
04 bucs-3rd
05 saints-2nd
06 bucs-1st
07 falcons-3rd
08 saints-3rd
09 bucs-3rd
10 panthers-3rd
11 bucs-3rd
12 bucs-4th
13 Prediction-Until last year the third place was last for five straight years. Do bucs make it three straight in the cellar? 1st falcons is determined. Its 4th bucs or 3rd place saints from previous year.

I honestly hope its not the case but the first few weeks if we start out 2-2 with those three home games and lose at Chicago I'm preparing for it. This could be the year the power changes hands in the NFC South.

Usually the team that is leading after five weeks has won this division
Falcons start
Saints-loss
Rams-win
dolphins-win
Pats-loss
Jets-win
3-2

Panthers
Seahawks-loss
Bills-win
Giants-This is the game that will determine 1st or 2nd
Cards-win
3-1 or 2-2.

Saints
Falcons-win
Bucs-This game determines early leader
Cards-win
Dolphins-loss
Bears-The other game determining outcome
2-3, 3-2, or 4-1. I don't think we go 4-1 we lose to bucs or bears. Remember, we just swept them and they want revenge.

Bucs
Jets-This game as well determines if we sweep the pats/jets. If bucs get this expect a loss for us to pats.
Saints-This determines as well
Pats-loss
Cards-loss or win. Cards lose to us, they'll come out harder against bucs and can certainly get to Freeman. But Palmer hardly has weapons and has had his share of problems with Revis.
1-3, 2-2, or 3-1. I tend to think they get one of the home games.


Not being a downer but it can happen. Interesting season ahead.

Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers
 

Uh...what? LoL

Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers
 

I remember when the end results in a division were based on how teams played that particular season. Those were the days. Haha

Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers
 

Saints will go Five & EAUX to start the season.

Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers
 

I was told there would be no math

Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers
 

I have a headache.

Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers
 

Well, the premise is discounting the fact that in the Sean Payton* Bounty* Wiretapping* Katrina Refs* Slippery Dome Turf* Cheating With Whistles* Continue To Touch And Affect The Head While We Secretly Tape Your Locker Room * era, in our division, we own the Falcons AND the Bucs.

In order for your mathimaticatin' to work, for the Bucs to win the division, the Bucs have to improve. And they have to improve against the Saints. Who just beat them and their new coach 41-0, and 35-28 (and even with the worst defense in the world, it wasn't even that close, the pathetic Bucs trailed for most of the game).

Basically, the truth is that, in recent years, if the Saints play the Bucs, the only way the Bucs ever win is if SOMETHING CRAYZEE HAPPENS. If it's both teams at equal strength, normal game, with Payton, the Saints win, and it's usually a blowout.

The Bucs recent wins against the Saints are:

- when coach broke his freaking leg on the sideline;
- a couple of games at the end of the season where Saints starters were pulled in various points of the game;
- and of course the crazy game in 2009 where Hartley missed in OT, and Benson danced like a fool thinking he'd made it. So see, something CRAYZEE has to happen for the Bucs to win.

But it was still obvious that in THAT game, we had the lead and Payton snapped the playbook shut, and the Saints spent the whole second half handing off to 3rd string running back Lynell Hamilton, nursing the lead, trying to not get anybody injured for the playoffs. The game wasn't "meaningless," per se, but it didn't ultimately affect the playoff standings any, and Payton knew it.

Every OTHER time these two teams have recently played, the games were Saints beatdowns, sometimes on the brink of being riots. It's one of the games I look forward to every year, where Payton really turns on the juice and lets it rip.

So the Bucs have a very uphill climb to get anywhere out of the cellar, much harder climb than the Saints, who have a history of performing well in division games as long as SOMETHING CRAYZEE doesn't happen.

Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers
 

It's simple math though...............just keep adding seven. :p

Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers
 

Coincidence is not the same as a trend. There is absolutely no way to reliably discern what a team "will do", based on historic data.

Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers
 

my head hurts

Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers
 

All that maths when the simple answer is
1. Saints
The rest

Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers
 

It has the same impact as interior color does on tire wear.

Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers
 

IDK, you can compile data, analyze it and come up with some pretty accurate determinations on just about anything ... it's how they do it in Vegas, :). This is a lotta' information to digest, but there's definitely an interesting coincidence in the NFC South where the majority of Division winners were fourth place finishers the prior season (but I'm not looking for one-trick-pony Carolina as contributing to that statistic this year).

I'll follow the k.i.s.s. rule though:

NFC South

1) Saints
2) Falcons
3) Panthers
4) Buccanneers

Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers
 

Can i get the Cliff notes?

Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers
 

Vegas compiles relevant data...... It analyses cause and effect. They don't lay down heavy odds on irrelevant data.

Who is injured right now has some relevance on what the possible outcome of this season could be. Who finished second last season has nothing to do with who will finish first this season. Schedules have changed, players have changed, etc....

Once you get past that part, the fact that this is specific to just the NFC South like there is a mystical force in place that doesn't effect the other 7 divisions.... and doesn't effect any postseason makes it preposterous.

On Vegas.... The house was built on people thinking they have figured it out... Not by people actually figuring it out. The house always has the upper hand even if the casino is opened in my living room.


I am however quite curious as to why some scenarios start in 02 and some in 03?


There are oddities but there are gaps

Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers
 

..errrr.... .because the house always wins? :confused: :lolup:

Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers
 

And this is relevant how?

Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers
 

Hey I know exactly who will win the division.

The team with the most wins.

Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers
 

Now THAT is a correlation that is founded on relative data :).

Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers
 

Here is one for you Will.

Since 2000 No team has ever gone 0-4 in the Preseason and won the Super Bowl. The ONLY team to ever go 0-4 in the preseason and win the Super Bowl was the 1992 Red Skins, other than that the 1990 Bills and the 2000 Giants are the only teams to ever make it to a Super Bowl after going 0-4 in the preseason.

So Atlanta is out of Super Bowl contention, and so are the Steelers... Hang it up, stick a fork in them.

2012 Ravens (2-2) 49ers (3-1)
2011 Giants (2-2) Patriots (2-2)
2010 Packers (2-2) Steelers (3-1)
2009 Saints (3-1) Colts (1-3)
2008 Steelers (3-1) Cardinals (2-2)
2007 Giants (1-3) Patriots (2-2)
2006 Colts (1-3) Bears (2-2)
2005 Steelers (3-1) Seahawks (2-2)
2004 Patriots (1-3) Eagles (1-3)
2003 Patriots (4-0) Panthers (4-0)
2002 Buccaneers (3-1) Raiders (2-2)
2001 Patriots (3-1) Rams (4-1)*(played in HOF game)
2000 Ravens (4-0) Giants (0-4)


Average pre-season record of the SB winning team is 2.46-1.53
Average pre-season record of the SB losing team is 2.15-1.92

Since 2000
Nine teams had 2-2 records.
Seven teams had 3-1 records
Five teams had 1-3 records.

Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers
 

Lets not get ahead of ourselves here? We havent swept this team back to back seasons ever. And back in 06 we won 31-14 in TB, the next year TB won 31-14 in the same place. And in that final week 17 game, they took out Ivory and that very well hurt us for the Seattle game. Who's to say something else crazy cannot happen? Hartley certainly has his blunders and could have won here. The bigger problem is Revis. Look at the jets in 09, Brees could not move the ball, we had to rely on Thomas and our defense. Bucs not only have Revis but also Goldson who for SF gave Brees problems as well..............Nobody really knows what that defense will be like but if Revis is healthy and back to form, they are scary on that side of the ball and the last thing you want is a VJac breakaway TD. Its coming to that point where we will have to beat them in the trenches.

Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers
 

I have compiled numbers for those divisions, this is the saints board though.

Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers
 

And that answers my 02' 03' question how?

Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers
 

I was quoting the part about the other 7 divisions.

Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers
 

Well I think its time to take a good hard look at this. Y'all did not believe and I hope I'm wrong and the panthers lose this week and the saints win. But if that doesnt happen I told you so.

Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers
 

Falcons: lot of talent at skill positions, decimated by injuries this year, playing a 3rd, or maybe even 4th place schedule next year
Saints: Most starters back
Panthers: playing over their heads, and their offense really isn't very good
Bucs: suck

facts, not trends

Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers
 

No, I said that it could be 1.Carolina or TB 2.Carolina or NO 3.Atlanta 4.TB or NO

And guess what it very well could be this. Key injuries happen every year. No team stays perfectly healthy with key players back to back years. When a big year happens, a injury hits the next season and you see the team start reacting to it on the field. The south has been a numbers curse division for some time now.