Draft and Needs Perspective
 

Draft and needs discussions are in full swing, its time to remind everyone about the % of players drafted that actually start rookie year on opening day.

Matt McGuire's did a 10-Year NFL Draft Study and below are some snippets from the study with links. I see a lot of people putting a lot of confidence in the draft to fix issues, and there is also a lot of discussion on draft busts or successes.

No need to get your knickers in a pinch over our First Round Draft picks, nearly 1/2 the league doesn't get it right.
If you have excel, click on the links and the spreadsheets are there.
First Round Draft picks historically have a 56%-ish chance of success.
http://walterfootball.com/images/nfldraftology408_1.jpg
WalterFootball.com: NFL Draftology 408: The 10-Year NFL Draft Study: Round 1


Second round drops to a 50/50 shot at a success.
http://walterfootball.com/images/nfldraftology408_2.jpg
WalterFootball.com: NFL Draftology 408: The 10-Year NFL Draft Study: Round 2


Great article by pat Kerwin
"If you look back at the draft classes of the past 10 years, there should be an expectation for 25-30 rookie starters, or about 3 to 4 percent of the opening day starters."

Re-read it... That is 25-30 rookies of the entire draft class generally start opening week of their rookie season. In essence only around 75-80% of first round draft picks are starters year one, week one.
The 23 rookies likely to be starting by Week 1 of the NFL season - CBSSports.com

This leads me to believe your best bet is to find the 1 position that we absolutely need a starter at from the draft and go with that, the remainder of our draft class should be considered projects to be on the safe side.

Drafting is not a science, it is an art with a great deal of luck.

Re: Draft and Needs Perspective
 

So it appears that on average every other 1st rounder should yield a starter.

We've had
Vaccaro - Yes
Jordan - Yes
Ingram - Yes
Robinson - Iffy (and he was the last 1st round pick)
Jenkins - Yes
Ellis - Yes, and then no.
Meachem - Yes but barely
Bush - Yes

It kinda looks like we've had a lot more success than most teams.

Re: Draft and Needs Perspective
 

I do believe that how you draft your first rounder weighs heavily on that success percentage. E.g. Drafting best player available vs need. There are quite a few clubs that reach into the first round for need for players that should have gone in the second round.

I think QBs skew that percentage also, although more QBs have been drafted to start in recent years than i remember in the past.

In some instances the stars align and the BPA is also your PoN.


Ellis is a perfect example of the decreasing percentage from 3-10 year.

Re: Draft and Needs Perspective
 

Interesting article,the reality of the draft is sobering it is even more so when you break it down by positions I don't know all of the percentages but I remember reading that DT is 46% success rate in rd one. Following the draft is not about reality it is about hope. Rarely do any of the draftniks get it right. It really is just a form of mental masturbation used to fill the gap between seasons. I just try and enjoy the good and bad post that we make now and see how they play out.

Re: Draft and Needs Perspective
 

I think there is a tendency among some fans to WANT IT RIGHT NOW. Instant Gratification. The number of non-QB 1st round draft picks who actually start and play the bulk of snaps on opening day in the NFL, and make an impact through that first season, is not really THAT astronomically high out of 32 teams. The Saints also have a habit of taking it slow and DEVELOPING their rookies in general, grooming them rather than just throwing them out there to the wolves. But some people want every single pick in the draft to be a Aldon Smith or Luke Keuchly or Adrian Peterson type monster game changer, right out the gate on DAY ONE. If every single pick isn't the next Clay Matthews or Von Miller, these people aren't satisfied.

Re: Draft and Needs Perspective
 

Luck plays an very important part in drafting. The second part is equally as important.

Player development.

You can draft the most successful and talented guys but if you unable to polish these gems, they're never going to shine.

Re: Draft and Needs Perspective
 

The tendency is actually reality for us...

Bree's isn't getting any younger. We need some real gems to come in and play immediately.

I think building this team for the future means we need to stock pile players that will help a young QB coming in who is going to replace Brees in a couple of years. So the QB can develop and grow as we remain competitive until he comes into his own.

Do we need to win now??? YES!!!!

Re: Draft and Needs Perspective
 

So, what we need to do is trade back into the second round where it is 50/50......we only lose 6% probability. And we gain extra picks.

Re: Draft and Needs Perspective
 

What we need to do is see how free agency works out for us, then cut to get under the cap, then see how the 26 picks before us go then decide.

That probability has nothing to do with ends up being a hit or miss after years... Has nothing to do with Who starts their rookie season.

If you need a starter you go after him in the first round and roll the dice. How many second round picks start their rookie season because they were drafted to start? Very few, most get to start because of injury to some other player.

Re: Draft and Needs Perspective
 

If you're counting Ingram as a yes, your grading system is flawed. 3 decent games in 3 years isn't considered a success, plain and simple.

Re: Draft and Needs Perspective
 

Well I like the fact everyone always seems to think round 1 and round 2. There are other rounds in the draft and there are some over looked players.

Thomas?
Colston?

Where did they come from?

Re: Draft and Needs Perspective
 

Let's draft a kicker first round and then get serious after that.

Re: Draft and Needs Perspective
 

How about you talk football instead of trolling.

Re: Draft and Needs Perspective
 

i agree. plus he is not just a first round pick he is a dbl first round pick. taking that into account i see no way you can label him a success. he has not brought stability to the run game at all. system failure what ever. he has not panned out to be worth the price paid. i blame the front office and SP here not so much mark.

trolling away is ok

Re: Draft and Needs Perspective
 

right now i do not see the glaring need to reach if that is what you are left with in the draft is not really first round money worthy . helps the cap. trade back but that aint the saints style so far.

Re: Draft and Needs Perspective
 

3 decent games in 3 years? Thats just a dumb statement.

Re: Draft and Needs Perspective
 

put up some stats instead

Re: Draft and Needs Perspective
 

Only a dumbass would need them.

Re: Draft and Needs Perspective
 

Agree that you can't count on high-round rookies to keep yourself competitive. But for every Ingram or Pat Robinson that doesn't contribute right away there is a Pierre Thomas, Khiry Robinson, Chris Ivory, Corey White, Junior Galette, that was a UDFA or low-round pick.

Re: Draft and Needs Perspective
 

ok that was a polite way of saying insulting is not cool. debate it with info not emotions and help others understand your point of veiw. other wise you prove nothing and solve nothing

Re: Draft and Needs Perspective
 

If you can't see how dumb it is to say Mark Ingram has only had 3 decent games in 3 years, no amount of stats will convince you otherwise.

Its a dumb statement, plain and simple.

Re: Draft and Needs Perspective
 

Now you know I love to debate with info more than most... However when you make an emotional post that is not grounded in fact you are starting an emotional discussion.

I also disagree with it being the stat-whores that always have to disprove emotional postings. How about doing some research before posting so that the burden is shared?:goodidea:

Re: Draft and Needs Perspective
 

Okay, I know you think I'm yanking your chain with drafting a kicker first round, but really; do we have a more glaring need than a good kicker? How many affordable better-than-average kickers are going to be hitting free agency this coming year? How many games did we have last year that were determined by the foot of one player? I can think of at least two we lost due to clunk-foot. What the hell, why not a super foot?

Re: Draft and Needs Perspective
 

my statement was made on the previous page

that has been my point of view for two straight years