New Orleans Saints draft analysis: The case for moving out of the 13th pick
 

Sean Payton calls it the cloud. Some others refer to it the bubble.

Whatever label you wish to apply, it’s the group of players who are similar graded at a particular spot in the draft. There are no rigid and steadfast rules to which one of those players are selected when a team comes on the clock. It’s up to the team determine which player with the highest grade at a position of need to pull out of the cloud.

The only issues is that the cloud, at least the one highest in the sky, is not as robust as it has been in previous seasons. There is elite talent in this draft class at the top, but many talent evaluators believe there are only 10 or 12 players who are truly first-round talents. After the top guys, there is a very deep and talented upper-middle class. This means the teams picking just outside of the top 10 or 15 might end up with a player similarly graded to those selected at the end of the first round.

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Of course, it depends on who is doing the grading, but if this opinion is to be believed, it puts the New Orleans Saints, who own the 13th pick, in a somewhat odd position. It’s very possible one of the players the team covets will slip to them. It’s also possible that the top talent goes early and all the players existing inside of New Orleans’ cloud evaporate before it is ever on the clock.

This could create a situation where the best option is to either move up in the draft, which will be easy to do considering the Saints have nine selections, or to drop down into the first round, which would allow New Orleans to achieve better value with its selection and acquire more picks.

At February’s scouting combine, general manager Mickey Loomis discussed his philosophies on moving up and down in the draft with The Advocate

“Part of the theory of moving back is that you get more opportunities, right?” Loomis said. “Nobody is hitting 100 percent, certainly. In fact, it’s probably closer to 60 percent. The more opportunities you have, probably the hit rate -- I get that theory. Sometimes it’s, ‘Man, this guy we just love. He first us exactly. Let’s go get this guy.’

He continued: “I think there’s good reason to move back and good reasons to move forward. It just depends where you’re at and what your target is.”

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The question is who or what the Saints are targeting with the 13th pick. The general consensus is that New Orleans could be in the market for a edge rusher. It’s a solid plan. You can never have too many pass rushers. The problem is that the top players -- Florida’s Dante Fowler Jr., Clemson’s Vic Beasley, Kentucky’s Bud Dupree -- could be gone well before the Saints pick, and the fourth member of that group, Nebraska’s Randy Gregory, has character concerns that could scare teams away.

Other possible options at this spot could be wide receivers Amari Cooper and Kevin White or offensive linemen Brandon Scherff and La’el Collins. Trades up might be required to land some of those players.

If New Orleans has to have one of those pass rushers, it might have to swing a deal to move up into the first eight picks to land one of them. But it’s also possible the need for one has been overstated -- at least for this season.

Defensive end Cam Jordan is entering a contract year and the Saints have expressed interest in retaining him. If a deal can be struck, the team is set at that spot well into the future. The situation surrounding Junior Galette is a bit unclear. He was arrested for a domestic situation this offseason, but charges have since been dropped. It’s possible he could face a suspension, but it would be surprising considering police are not pursuing a case.

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Re: New Orleans Saints draft analysis: The case for moving out of the 13th pick
 

With needs at LB, WR, OL, CB, DL I think this is much more likely that everyone we covet being selected already

We know Winston and Mariota will be gone.
That leaves only 10 players that will be be selected when we pick.

1. Cooper
2. White
3. Sherff
4. Williams
5. Fowler
6. Beasley
7. Shelton
8. Collins
9. Waynes
10. Gregory (probably off of our board)
11. Brown
12. Dupree
13. Ray

I'd be very happy with at least 10 of those 13 listed above.

Re: New Orleans Saints draft analysis: The case for moving out of the 13th pick
 

Isn't there growing concern that these pass rushers like Beasley, Fowler and Dupree are going to be busts? Or work ethic issues or something?

I can't remember but it seems like there's a lot of negativity surrounding some of the defensive players in this draft.

Personally I'd be happy with Cooper, White, Sherff, Shelton or Collins with our first pick.

I really don't know much about Fowler or Beasley but it seems like I've read somewhere they may not be that great. Idk.

I'll trust in Mickey and Sean I guess.

Re: New Orleans Saints draft analysis: The case for moving out of the 13th pick
 

If Sherff is there, you gotta take him. Brees now has the time he has not had since Nicks left.

Re: New Orleans Saints draft analysis: The case for moving out of the 13th pick
 

Just imagine...

LT- Armstead
LG- Sherff
OC- Unger
RG- Evans
RT- Strief

Wow.

Re: New Orleans Saints draft analysis: The case for moving out of the 13th pick
 

Nearly as good as the o-line i have just drafted NFLUK forums alltime draft(well 1960-2015). 20 players

LT Willie Roaf
LG Larry Allen
OC Kevin Mawae
RG Jahri Evans
RT Erik Williams

QB Brees

Re: New Orleans Saints draft analysis: The case for moving out of the 13th pick
 

All but Gregory, Ray or Dupree.

And in regards to the article, it's less about who's there AT 13 and more about who's NEAR 13. If we like a guy at 9, 10 or 11, we'll jump.

Re: New Orleans Saints draft analysis: The case for moving out of the 13th pick
 

Agreed, if Sherff is there you've got to pull the trigger.

Re: New Orleans Saints draft analysis: The case for moving out of the 13th pick
 

Problem is, if one of those guys looks like they'll fall to us, someone just behind us would't have to give up as much to move to the G'nats, Rams or Vikings spot...

Then we're stuck at 13 probably reaching on a player...

I'd rather be proactive and jump to the Raiders spot and select a Leonard Williams or Vic Beasley...

Re: New Orleans Saints draft analysis: The case for moving out of the 13th pick
 

I don't like jumping that far unless it's a game changing skill position player.

Just my own preference.

Is Beasley THAT much of a difference maker or a shiny college player? I'm not sure.

Re: New Orleans Saints draft analysis: The case for moving out of the 13th pick
 

The more I think, the more this year seems like 2006. Over the past two seasons we've cleaned house (and may not be done).

IMO, we keep as many of the picks that aren't involved in at least one trade.

We need em.

Re: New Orleans Saints draft analysis: The case for moving out of the 13th pick
 

Trading back out of 13 to the early to mid 20's makes alot of sense,if Sheldon or Sheriff are there those have to be taken, with Sheriff being taken over Sheldon only because it fortifies our O-line. Our D is a work in progress but progressing.

Re: New Orleans Saints draft analysis: The case for moving out of the 13th pick
 

Not a fan of Dupree at all. Disappeared at times last season. LSU put up right at 50 against Kentucky last year and lets face it, LSU did not have a overwhelming offense.

Re: New Orleans Saints draft analysis: The case for moving out of the 13th pick
 

If the solid players are off the board and the word upside is involved with any of the picks i say trade out and and again spread out this bonanza of picks into 2016.

move down in one and pick up a first in 2016 or a second, is a solid move.
move out of 31 and pick up a 1st in 2016 is a solid move.

do both and i would say the saints have a game plan in 2016.

1 first, 2 seconds and 2 thirds would be sweet also. and sleeping a night with 2 1st and a 2 seconds in 2016 would be ideal in my book.

must at least get that second 1st in 2016 to make it all worth while.

One draft is not going to fill all the holes. The holes we can fill in this draft based on needs is here in the draft and can be addressed from round 2 on.

I like the top 10 or so in this this draft. i just see a hug drop of from there. at 13 i think we will need some divine intervention to get one of the top players to drop in our lapse. i swear it is like the entire second round in a typical draft is in the last half of the first this year. there is just a void from say 12 to say 24 talent wise. so close yet so far away.

to get an honest shot at a player we could use, we need to start look at chicago on down for trading partners. I for one say we need to many players depth wise to waste the picks moving up without trading a players also.

I agree with Seattle there are not enough true first round talents in this years draft. I would have made the Jimmy trade also based on that.

But the quality of players from round 1 on is very solid.

Re: New Orleans Saints draft analysis: The case for moving out of the 13th pick
 

The key word to me here is solid. By building a solid foundation in this draft you could roll the dice on a player(sexy pick, I hate those words) next season or keep drafting solid picks. I'm all about a solid built teams, more consistancy and hard as he!! to beat. Play-action with the O and in the low to mid teens on the D I think will get us back to where we need to get back to, winning.

Re: New Orleans Saints draft analysis: The case for moving out of the 13th pick
 

I would never ever trade up at 13 unless its for a fortified starter on either side of the ball, besides kickers or russel errsedlavin . still embarrassed with that foolish pick.

Re: New Orleans Saints draft analysis: The case for moving out of the 13th pick
 

id rather get to 6 or 7 and select scherff. he wont make it past 10

Re: New Orleans Saints draft analysis: The case for moving out of the 13th pick
 

13th Pick in Round of NFL Draft 1994 to 2015

Year Name Team
2014 Aaron Donald Rams
2013 Sheldon Richardson Jets
2012 Michael Floyd Cardinals
2011 Nick Fairley Lions
2010 Brandon Graham Eagles
2009 Brian Orakpo Redskins
2008 Jonathan Stewart Panthers
2007 Adam Carriker Rams
2006 Kamerion Wimbley Browns
2005 Jammal Brown Saints
2004 Lee Evans Bills
2003 Ty Warren Patriots
2002 Donte' Stallworth Saints
2001 Marcus Stroud Jaguars
2000 John Abraham Jets
1999 Troy Edwards Steelers
1998 Takeo Spikes Bengals
1997 Tony Gonzalez Chiefs
1996 Walt Harris Bears
1995 Mark Fields Saints
1994 Joe Johnson Saints

now tell me again why the Saints should trade out of pick #13? I only see 4/5 players on that list that at the time they were drafted wouldn't of helped the Saints if they had the chance to draft them in the year they were selected

Re: New Orleans Saints draft analysis: The case for moving out of the 13th pick
 

no doubt and we ended up with some really good players too, but I think every draft is different, and I am only saying we should move up if there is a specific player we are looking at that we think is game changer this year. Plus, because we have the extra 3rd and extra first this year, to me, makes it more palatable. That said, if we don't have anyone we covet then we should sit still or trade down.