Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out
 

Sometimes facts are born from assumptions that are repeated and repeated until they become common knowledge.

Sometimes those assumptions are correct. Sometimes they’re wrong. Sometimes they’re a little bit of both.

When discussing how the New Orleans Saints build their offensive line, it’s a little bit of both.

If you’ve followed the Saints at all over the past decade, you’ve probably been lead to believe that the team builds its offensive line from the inside out, starting with the guards and centers and working toward the tackles.

This, of course, would run counter to how most teams build their line. On almost every team in every city, the tackles are the top priority, then the guards and centers. People believe the Saints work counter to that because of quarterback Drew Brees’ height and the way he likes to climb the pocket.

http://theadvocate.com/csp/mediapool...YPE=image/jpeg

The general idea is that, because of Brees’ height, he needs a cleaner pocket to be able to see the field. He also needs room to navigate because of the way he moves around the pocket. The level of priority is born from the fact that Carl Nicks, Jahri Evans and Ben Grubbs all used to collect sizable checks during their time in New Orleans while the tackles were usually cheaper.

The second point might be more of a coincidence than anything. It was the result of drafting and developing players who hit in the fourth and fifth rounds (Nicks and Evans), then the result of opportunity (Grubbs). The first point has more merit.

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Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out
 

Just fix it.

Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out
 

What exactly is broken? Other than rushing the ball, name a single team offensive stat where this offense was not in the top 10 of the league?

I've been looking at this stat on Pro Football Reference called Expected Points. It's a combination of down, distance, and field position that computes the expected number of points that results from that situation. It's possible to evaluate the efficiency of an offense/defense by tracking the differences in EP from play to play and summing those differences over the course of a game.

Take this example: The EP value of 1st and 10 from your 20 is 1.22. If the offense gets an 80 yard TD then the actual points for the play is 7 (PATs are automatically given). So the difference is 7-1.22 = 5.78 points. However, if the result of the play results in a 2nd and 8 from the 22 with an EP value of 1.25 then the offense would get 0.03 points for the play. And if the QB throws a pick-6, resulting in -7 points, then the offense is charged -8.22 points for the play. Flip the signs of the numbers for the defense.

Here's the point. According to PFR, the Saints offense scored a +144.2 for the season, 2nd in the league only behind the Cardinals. 8 out of the top 10 teams in that category were playoff teams last year.

The flip side is abysmal. The Saints defense was dead last at -204.1. This was 90 points worse than the next team last year. This was worse than 0-16 2008 Detroit Lions @-199 that gave up 517 points for that season. Even 80 points worse than the 2012 Saints defense that gave up a record 7000+ yards in a season.

My point is thinking of the offense as broken is wishful thinking. The defense is close to FUBAR. Let's just hope a full offseason with Allen as the DC and the infusion of new defensive personal will move us closer to the middle of the pack.

FYI last season the top defense in EP was Denver at +146, nearly 50 points ahead of the #2 KittyKats. Denver's offense was 30th at -56.3.

So I ask again: fix exactly what?

SFIAH

Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out
 

there in lies the problem. playing too many games with your 20 million dollar man. Drew is getting sacked more and more every year. one day he will break

Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out
 

That may be an issue, but it's not a problem, and certainly isn't the problem that has this team so broken that it must be fixed.

The only the problem the Saints currently have is the defense in its entirety. a defense according to EP outlined above ranks 50th in a 32 team league. A defense where no lead is safe. Refer to 52-49 against the Giants, 28-35 against the Titans, and 38-41 against the Panthers as examples.

Simply put other defenses in the NFL are not as bad as ours has been the last 2 years. We have 10 years of evidence that there will be little falloff in the offense. Pay attention to the fact that the team went 7-9 last year while giving up an average of nearly 30 points and 3 TD passes per game.

It's not rocket science. Look at the Saints defensive stats and record the last 3 years:

Year Points Expected Points Record
-------------------------------------------
2013 304 4.34 11-5
2014 424 -147.8 7-9
2015 474 -204.1 7-9

The dropoff from excellent to really bad to flat awful is really quite stunning.

BTW the Saints offense was in the top 10 in scoring offense and top 5 in EP each of those 3 years.

The offense is the engine of the team. I agree with that. But the engine just keeps on chugging. The defense is the brake. It keeps the team from getting over the mountain. We just need to get them back to neutral. But that's a long haul from 474 points against and a -204 EP. Last year the average defense was at 365 PA with an EP of -32. During the Payton tenure every successful season had the defense below 350 PA, regardless of the offensive output. So the goal is 350 PA and an EP of 0. BTW it isn't a completely hopeless dream. Note that in 2012 the defense gave up 454 with an EP of -125. The last new DC turned it around in a single year. Here's hoping to recapturing that magic.

And this has absolutely, positively nothing to do with guards, or wide receivers, or tight ends, or Brees. Does the offense need tweaks? Probably. Should the offense be more balanced? Sure.

But it isn't a problem to be fixed. That solely lies with the defense.

SFIAH

Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out
 

Our line is good. It is not great.

We just don't run block for poo. And Drew is pocket savvy. And frankly our pass blocking just, well, I didn't feel good about it last year, but I'm the first to tell you that based on how I felt watching the games. I haven't looked at numbers.

So I could be wrong, but honestly I don't think I'm wrong. Maybe I'm wrong though.

Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out
 

you aren't wrong, it seems more and more I cringe most times Brees drops back to pass because he's about to take an unnecessary hit because this offensive line can't pass protect like it did in year's past. Hope this year Peat beats out Strief and they strike gold with one or two of these UDFAs they signed on the offensive line

Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out
 

O-line could use an up-grade at T and G. Got to agree about the D being FUBAR

Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out
 

If they can establish the run takes care of everything!!!

Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out
 

Sure. The defense has been awful the last two years. Not OK, not bad, not terrible, but historically awful.
The numbers are simple: nearly 5000 passing yards, a 100+ QB rating, overall 25+ PPG.
It doesn't matter if you are right or wrong. What matters is that it doesn't matter because the defense is so bad, so terrible, so horrible, so inept, so awful, that it doesn't make any difference.

SFIAH

Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out
 

Grest post bruh. Great ****ing post.

Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out
 

This is the same discussion I have with my brother. I'll say here the same thing I say to him:

It's a waste of time.

Payton has been HC going on 10 years. He was an OC before then. He has never run the ball with any real consistency. And frankly, between he and Brees, they never ever will. For those of you who are not clued in, the Saints offense always comes to the line with two called plays, typically a run and a pass. Brees switches to the other play by calling "Kill! Kill!". Observe how many times he changes the play to a pass and you'll understand what I'm talking about.

It may be forgotten that Payton had his playcalling duties taken away from him in Dallas by Parcells because he didn't run the ball consistently.


The only time the Saints have run the ball consistently in the last 10 years is late in the game with a lead.

The last two years with the terrible defense, those opportunities are few and far between.

If you want a more consistent running game, then set up a defense that can hold a lead. Otherwise, forget it.

And BTW my opinion is that while running the ball effectively may make the offense more explosive, due to more effective play action, that it really doesn't make the Saints' offense too much more efficient. In today's NFL more yards and more efficiency comes from the passing game. Over the last 10 years Brees has averaged 7.7 yards per attempt. That the average of all passes both complete and incomplete along with interceptions. The highest career running back yards per carry is 5.5 with Jamaal Charles of KC. What exactly is the fixation on running the ball when you can get nearly double the number of yards each time you try to throw it?

SFIAH

Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out
 

Here we go again with the offense needing to be carried by the defense. Where were the packers, colts, and cowboys in these rankings? They were dealing with injuries. Otherwise saints are behind them. And the old offense would be better than Arizona.

Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out
 

I just remember us being up 14-0 on Carolina, got back to back stops early against Detroit, held eagles to 13 points in their place in the first half, the defense did not break until after the offense did in these games. How does an improved defense help us score 20 points in Houston, 27 points against Dallas, avoiding what happened to Brees against TB, and the choke against Tennessee(come on you really think we were gonna shut them out?)? We had good first q defenses last year outside of NYG and Was, fluke starts against Az and Hou, but the offenses were poor and led the defense to collapse.

Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out
 

Team Quarterback Sacked Per Game: 2015 NFL Season

and FYI- this asinine article isn't about the strength of our line, it's about building a line from the center out, and how we supposedly only employ short guards and centers because Brees can't see over them.

Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out
 

This might be a good place for this article... Let's just say maybe the players aren't the problem:

Dan Roushar giving Saints offensive line new life after disappointing year | NOLA.com

Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out
 

^Saw that on the other forum. More secrets. I remember when Streif said last year there was no magic formula after being 0-2. I guess he was referring to the oline.

How similar is Roushar to Kromer?

Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out
 

Agreed. The defense has been anemic, historically bad over the last two years.

Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out
 

You are right about the stats. People ***** that our offense has lost a step, and statistically it hasnt. Brees had less interceptions than he has in years last year and we torched some pretty decent defenses. Our line does still need work though. If for no other reason than to extend Brees career AND help the next guy develop after Brees leaves. Even if our defense does improve we will still win only 7-8 games if our offense slips at all. An offensive line always needs work.
Ours has especially lacked in run blocking as of late.

Also all that statistical dribble made my head hurt.

We ran the ball just fine in 09 and 11. Top 5 if I am not mistaken.

Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out
 

Are we expecting a defense that can play a whole half constantly on the field non-stop with no breaks in between?

Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out
 

The offense better be improved though oline and weapons more than defense.

Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out
 

after all the readings posted here I am still in belief the saints have, since the super bowl, rolled the dice year after year on the OL. results have been one thing. each year drew gets hammered. Bo longer is Drew on the least sacked QB in the NFL. Points and all the other stats mean nothing. You have to protect your 20 million dollar investment. One way to do that is run the ball.

Running the ball is another things the saints have not been able to do in recent years. All the passes I give Ingram has to do with the OL. Defenses are not worried about our run game and pin their ears back on almost every play.

Saints once again are playing it cute on the OL and one day it will side line Drew. As Drew goes so do the saints

Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out
 

Nope, and that wasn't the case last year. The Saints were 6th in time of possession.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/sta...sion-net-of-ot

Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out
 

First half TOP?^

Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out
 

Yes, the Saints first half time of possession last year averaged 31 minutes 20 seconds.

Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out
 

Of course. But the point is an improved offensive line may turn an A- offense into an A+ one.

But on the flip side even an A+ offense cannot carry a F- defense.

SFIAH

Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out
 

And obviously, perhaps the front office knows that defensive talent wasn't really the problem.

Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out
 

Defense wins Championships. It's a worn out phrase but it is oh so true. Still, Drew needs a run game and time to pass if we want to be competitive. For God's sake we've got Drew and need to protect him so the defense isn't on the field all game long.

Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out
 

Tampa Bay
Philadelphia
Atlanta
Houston
Carolina(one offensive TD)
Detroit


The 2008 saints would not play like that and the defense gave up record numbers because, well, the defense was on the field 30 minutes a game. Defense needs to improve but last year if our offense was good defense would probably be as good or better than the 2008 defense.

Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out
 

I'm just going to have to call this for what it is: nonsensical wishful thinking. I've presented numerous times statistical evidence that the Saints offense cannot carry the defense no matter how good it is. Yet you continue to insist that some marginal offensive improvement is somehow going to turn everything around.

All you need to do is look at the scores from last season to see that that strategy isn't going to work. The Saints were 1-6 last season when they gave up 30 or more points. OTOH they were 5-0 when giving up 21 points or less. They were 1-3 in shootouts, where both the offense scored more then their season average and the defense gave up more of their season average. The bottom line is that the only game they were successful in scoring more points is the Giants game.

More offense isn't the solution. When you are 5-0 when holding the opposition to 21 or less and 2-9 when giving up 24 points or more, then the sole goal should be to hold opponents scoring down.

I presume you are referring to the 2009 SB champs instead of the 2008 8-8 squad. The difference between those two years is exactly what I have been referring to. The offense got a bit better. But the defense in 2009 held scoring to 21.3 PPG and had 39 takeaways. The offense didn't carry that defense. The defense in fact created the conditions for that offense to be as successful as it was. The high 3rd down percentage and the takeaways facilitated more opportunities for the offense. Holding the scoring down facilitated more opportunities to run the ball.

I'm sure you have the causality backwards. You seem certain that the great offenses of the Saints in the last 10 years have been because of the offense. But if you go back and look at the most successful years from 2006 until now, the strong correlation is that the offensive output was improved when the defense did their job.

SFIAH

Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out
 

The defense was great that season, but don't forget that our running game made a huge jump from near last to 6th in the league.

Mike Bell, Pierre Thomas, Lynell Hamilton and even Reggie Bush all had success running behind that monster O line.

Drew literally had no running game in 2008, which is why we lost something like 5 games by 3 points or less, we could never convert a third and short.

Not taking anything away from the defense because 39 takeaways certainly helped our offense massively, but the running game also took a ton of pressure off Brees.

Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out
 

We had no running game because we didn't know to use PT until late. Deuce was done. And Reggie just didn't fit. I still believe using Reggie in that Chicago game cost us in the first half.

And the running game was sixth due to the blowouts. We never ran more than passed with Drew on the field.

Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out
 

WE were not a run first team in 2009!!! I should know because I had Brees on my fantasy team.

And in 2009 we marched the ball down the field 6 straight weeks for a opening drive TD. I'm actually hoping we don't get turnovers next year just stops. Brees is a big boy, he and the receivers need to learn to move the ball next year against the teams they couldn't last year at certain points. Defenses get tired.

Anyways your opinion is irrelevant because Michael Thomas will improve the offense anyways.

Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out
 

In weeks 3 and 4 Brees failed to throw a TD, so the running game and defense carried us both weeks.

We ran for 150+ yards in both those games and they weren't blowouts.

Re: Despite common narrative, Saints do not necessarily build offensive line from inside out
 

Yes those games but given the situations Brees couldn't throw the ball. The jets were one of the top secondaries in the league(I believe they were the top) and we were in Buffalo week 3 in rainy weather. But look at Detroit, Philadelphia, NYG, Miami, Atlanta, TB, NE, Washington, Atlanta Brees had 3+TDs in all those games but second Atlanta one where he had two. Carolina and St.Louis were considered one of the better secondaries where we had to rely on running games in those.