I was wrong
 

I had thought this would be a game we would have been let down in because of the back to back home games for them and coming off a loss. I used a lot of numerical stats pointing out things pointing to SF winning. It ended up going our way. But sometimes it's best to pick something and be wrong. If we did not have that kind of defense we really do not win this game. But I hope this win is not for nothing as I feel we need to get in the playoffs to stop Atlanta because I am too concerned there.

Re: I was wrong
 

looking at the needs on defense I have to admit the win did cross off players in the draft as we tumble down the draft board.

Re: I was wrong
 

We need to get in. Vikings are giving us a opening but it sucks the winner of Arizona/Minnesota will probably be problem for us. Winning next week plus going 3-3 in division I believe gets us 8-8 or 9-7.

Here's who we are contending with.......
Dallas(7-1)....Will they win division?
@Pit-L
Bal-L(stopping Elliott is key and their run d is good)
Was-L(the road win trend)
@Min-L
@NYG-?
TB-W
Det-W
@Phi-L

They lose to NYG, they are 9-7. They would have equal conference record....common advantage.......tied 3-3. Strength of victory....come back to this.

NYG(5-3)(if they sweep Dallas they win division but they look bad)
Cin-W
Chi-W
@Cle-W
@Pit-L
Dal-?
Det-W
@Phi-L
@Was-L

They lose to Dallas they are 9-7 and beat us h2h. Would need another team tied as they would have a worse conference record.

Was(4-3-1)
Min-W
GB-L
@Dal-W
@Ari-L
@Phi-L
Car-W
@Chi-W
NYG-W

9-6-1. That beats us. They probably get second regardless in their division.

Eagles have four losses now, same as us and probably lose to Atlanta, Seattle, Cincinatti, and Baltimore.

GB(4-4)
@Ten-W
@Was-w
@Phi-L
Hou-W
Sea-W
@Chi-W
Min-W
@Det-?

Looking at 10-6 if they don't need to win in Detroit.

Minnesota(5-3)
@Was-L
Ari-W
@Det-L
Dal-W
@Jac-W
Ind-W
@GB-L
Chi-W

They really would need to lose to Indy or Jacksonville and I don't see it. Indy got their 2 wins against the NFC already and Jacksonville's strength is their passing game which sucks going against this team. They're in at 10-6.

Detroit(5-4)
Jac-W
Min-W
@NO-L(they have to)
Chi-W
@NYG-L
@Dal-L
GB-?

9-7 or 8-8 but they are 2-2 in ic and we could have h2h.

Atlanta(6-3)
@Phi-W
Ari-?
KC-?
@LA-W
SF-W
@Car-?
NO-?
Does Atlanta go 3-3 or 5-1 in division. They need to lose all of the ? games for us to have a chance at division.

Carolina(3-5)
KC-?
NO-?
@Oak-W
@Sea-L
SD-W
@Was-L
Atl-?
@TB-?

They are going 9-7 or less but a tie at 9-7 puts them ahead of us in common games. They need to lose to us, Atlanta, TB, or KC.

TB(3-5)
Chi-W(have to)
@KC-L
Sea-L
@SD-W
NO-L
@Dal-L
@NO-?
Car-?

not a threat.

Arizona(because Seattle has division)
(3-4-1)
SF-W
@Min-L
@Atl-?
Was-W
@Mia-W
NO-W
@Sea-L
@LA-W

If they beat Atlanta 9-61, if not 8-7-1.

LA(3-5)
@NYJ-L
Mia-W
@NO-L
@NE-L
Atl-L
@Sea-L
SF-W
Ari-L

5-11 does not matter.

As it stands should Atlanta beat Arizona, we're in trouble. Maybe we can hope Minnesota loses a game they are supposed to win. Or Washington gets swept by Dallas. Best scenario is losing last game to giants and hoping giants beat Dallas. Washington would be 8-7-1. Atlanta beating Arizona, Washington and Dallas losing to the giants in their second game will have us and Dallas vying for the second wild card. We would both beat Detroit so they are first out.

Dallas's projected beaten teams' records
@Was(8-7-1--7 wins beaten, the one other is against them)
Chi(3-13)
@SF(2-14)
Cin(7-8-1)
@GB(10-6 or 11-5)
Phi(8-8....7 wins beaten)
@Cle(1-15)
TB(7-9 or 6-10)
Det(9-7 or 8-8....combine records with GB which have the accurate number)

52 or 53 wins beaten

Us
@SD(7-9)
Car(8-8 or 7-9......7 or 6 wins beaten)
Sea(11-4-1)
@SF(2-14)
Den(10-6)
LA(5-11)
Det(9-7 or 8-8)
@TB(7-9 or 6-10....possibly 6 or 5 wins beaten)

This would put us at 54-57 wins beaten. If we sweep Carolina however or TB we get additional wins taking us to 55-58. Beating one of each, then we beat Atlanta who would have 10 or 11 wins taking us to 65-69. The lowest number we beat Dallas and probably due to us beating Seattle and should we beat Denver that helps even more.

One other possibility is giants losing to the bengals. It could happen but will it? That then puts us possibly in good position to get that last wild card if Washington gets swept by Dallas or loses last game to giants. However, if vikings can fall to 9-7, then they beat NYG head to head. The tie-breaker becomes conference record which we and giants would be tied if they lose to Cincy and beat Washington. If they lose to Washington and beat Cincy. They tie Minnesota in CR giving us the wild card. This is all assuming Arizona loses at Atlanta.

Our best bet is to keep winning until Arizona and hope things go our way week 16.

Re: I was wrong
 

What does that even mean? We could have fielded the worse defense we had this year and still have won that game. 9/10 times when a team scores over 40 points they win. Look at last years Giants game.

Re: I was wrong
 

I'm going to shorten this post for you, here goes...

Atlanta isn't sweeping. We beat the teams in our division we are in. Period.

Re: I was wrong
 

Agreed.

If we win 6 or our next 8, we're probably in.

Re: I was wrong
 

Nailed it!!! :biggun:

Re: I was wrong
 

Thumbs up

Re: I was wrong
 

We are a lot better than people here and the media give us credit for. We got a shot at the playoffs... We have gotten better since the start, don't count us out yet.

Re: I was wrong
 

They can win 10 games if they can be consistent. That has been an issue for years, not knowing which team would show up.

Until the defense gets much better than it has been, no one should be looking for respect from the media. They only talk about super bowl contenders, and the Cowboys (whether or not they are any good) not playoff contenders. If some of the returning players on defense can make this a middle of the road unit and start creating turnovers on a more consistent basis, then people will start paying attention nationally.

Re: I was wrong
 

Amazingly it has already started to happen. I saw a Saints discussion on ESPN's NFL Live this wee analyzing the prospects of the 6 current 4-4 teams in the league. Both analysts (Hasselback and Saturday) thought the Saints were in good shape.

BTW national NFL coverage is close to your assessment. But there is the extra bonus when playing last year's Superbowl constestants both winner and loser. We get them back to back Sunday and Thursday. Come out 2-0 against them with a 6-4 record and a winning streak, The Saints will be in the discussion.

Finally national media respect superstars. Their mantra has been "Brees is great. Defense is terrible." I figure we'll get upgraded to "Brees is great, defense and running game is adequate." when we find a way to win both of the next two games.

In fact it's already started to turn. One of the nuggets in the "defense is terrible" category is last years defense giving up an NFL record 45 TD passes. Spouted out on shows like NFL live in every Saints segment. After 8 games this defense has given up only 11. Also pointed out in the segment above. One of the items seeming to move the defensive perception of being better forward.

SFIAH

Re: I was wrong
 

Nice.

Good thing they got rid of #39 this past off season.

Re: I was wrong
 

Yeah when the Saints play a team of note, they have to talk about us a little bit. There's no doubt that, especially in this very weak year in the NFL, this team is right in the middle of the playoff race. Forget down the road, we're in it now. But nobody is going to take this team seriously as true contenders to make some noise in the postseason until the defense gets better. It's true about the touchdown passes against being way down, but the overall points against are about the same.

I have no idea what to expect from any of the players who are coming back. We got two back last week and it didn't go well for the unit, as a whole. But hopefully they will shake off the rust and improve. IF they do, then people will really take notice.

I actually expect a win this week. A few weeks ago I would have said beating the Broncos is possible, but not likely. I don't feel that way at all now. Their defense has surprisingly struggled against the run, which gives us an opportunity to have a balanced attack again. That, you would think, will neutralize their pass rush. Offensively, they just aren't good. Of course, we said that about the 49ers last week, but the Saints just overplayed the Kaepernick's running ability. Semien is more of a scrambler than a runner. I like the matchup. Plus, this offense has gotten better from a few weeks ago. A win here will go a long way toward being taken seriously.

Re: I was wrong
 

Yep. Listening to 104.3 Denver sport fan radio the other day, Semien is not playing at 100% so his mobility will be limited & they are really down on RB (Booker) & quite possibly he lose some snaps on Sunday.
Talib & Wolfe are out and Chris Harris have not played particularly well @ corner. The last thing Denver want is a track meet inside a noisy dome.

I think Brees will pick apart their secondary & HT/MI rushing combo will be very effective. That dome will be LOUD.

Saints 27-14 :bng:.

Re: I was wrong
 

Circling back to the Denver defense and their losses this season ...

Loss to ATL (ranked #1 offense)
Loss to OAK (ranked #2 offense)
Loss to SD ( ranked #5 offense)

Malik Jackson - gone
Danny Trevethian - gone
Derek Wolf - injured (ruled out)
TJ Ward - banged up
Brandon Marshall - injured
A Talib - injured (out on Sunday)

Now you face a #3 offense in the DOME ?! Yep, bad match ups across the board for Denver. Von M can only do so much.

Re: I was wrong
 

You give national media too much credit. There are only about 3 criteria for currying their favor:

1. Be on the east coast + Dallas who plays teams on the east coast, or last years SB participants.
2. Have a winning record.
3. Beat or play teams from group #1.

The Saints are not in group #1. However, they can be 6-4 in less than a week and get there by beating both of last year's SB participants. That will put them squarely on the national media radar.

On average I agree. But the Saints' defense has been a tale of two streaks: the losing streak in the beginning (1-3) and the current winning streak (3-1).

Also I never attribute points to the defense when the defense isn't on the field. This season so far there's been 2 pick-6s, a fumble and a blocked kick all returned for TD. So let's look at the averages with those removed points:

losing streak: 34+9+38+34: 28.75 PPG
winning streak: 38+20+13+23 : 23.5 PPG

Compared to 462/16 (Brees had 2 pick-6s in 2015) : 28.875 the defense is 5 PPG down during the winning streak and is close to 3 PPG down overall.

This defense is never going to be great this season. They are never going to be lockdown. Not this season with the personnel and injuries they have. But if they can stay in the top 10 in takeaways, and can get scoring towards 23 where they have been the last 3 weeks, then the middle of the road is a substantial improvement over the train wreck of the last couple of seasons.

SFIAH

Re: I was wrong
 

I'm actually giving the media less credit than you are. I already identified the Dallas "america's team" bias. We are mostly in agreement except that you say having a winning record makes the media pay attention. I'm saying you have to beat a couple of teams of note (they have one so far, against Seattle) and you have to show enough balance as a team for people to respect you. You are of the opinion that beating the Panthers matters to them, but we've already done that and everyone said "well, the Panthers are a train wreck".

As far as the defense is concerned, I didn't say they needed to be lock down. I just said they need to get better than they are, and consistently creating more turnovers is something I already mentioned. That's an obvious one.

And I agree about pick sixes not being the fault of the defense, but giving up almost 500 yards to the last place offense is a sure sign that this defense has a lot of improving to do.