Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats
 

Okay, just to put this in some kind of context, here are all the \"catches\" for the Saints\' offense. Granted, it\'s not \"passes thrown\" to but it does give you an idea of how much the ball was distributed.

Couple of points:
1. Boo Williams had as many catches as our 3rd receiver.
2. Deuce had as many catches as our 3rd receiver.
3. Aaron Stecker had as many catches as our 3rd receiver.

To me this suggests that our QB spread the ball out pretty welll. I don\'t think it can be argued other wise.

Joe Horn 94
Donte\' Stallworth 58
Jerome Pathon 34
Boo Williams 33
Deuce McAllister 34
Aaron Stecker 29
Michael Lewis 8
Ernie Conwell 10
Mike Karney 6
Talman Gardner 1
Lamont Hall 1

Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats
 

Yea Shadow I see what you mean. Stats are good for something after all, arguing. I can\'t wait for the draft man. I can\'t wait to see everbody\'s reaction to our bonehead picks.

Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats
 

Oh yeah, I like your new quote. Sounds like something I would say! :nutz:

Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats
 

I\'m going to delete it...It was a classless move on my part to have it to begin with...I knew what you meant..

Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats
 

An offensive lineman 20 yards behind him? Maybe the defense?

Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats
 

OK, I probably don\'t agree with WHY gumbo is making this point, but that doesn\'t mean I can\'t see what he\'s saying.

The argument \"AB locks in on Horn\" is something whodi and I agree on. Having said that, Gumbo showed that Horn\'s percentage of balls thrown to isn\'t really out of whack with the rest of the league. I admit, this percentage surprised me a bit.

I think what gumbo is saying is that if the argument is AB locks in on Horn, the stats he posted are relevant. AB threw to horn x percent of the time compared to the percent other QBs threw to their number ones. For that discussion, you can lock in on this one number.
The numbers whodi is posting are more how well/evenly AB distributes the ball among all of his receivers, not so much how he locks in on Horn. For total pass distribution, you break down all the receivers (as whodi did) and see what the variance is for the #2,#3,#4,TE, and RB.

Again, I usually disagree with gumbo, but in this case, it\'s not where the other 70% of the balls go to, it\'s how much AB throws to Joe. I still think he locks in on Horn, regardless of what the numbers say :)

Can you get a percentage of balls thrown in to triple coverage? ;)

Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats
 

Marvin Harrison 86
Reggie Wayne 77
Brandon Stokley 68
Dallas Clark 25
Marcus Pollard 29
Edge James 51
Dominic Rhodes 2
James Mungro 7
Brad Pyatt 2
Ben Hartsock 4
Aaron Moorehead 1
Troy Walters 1

What\'s your point?

Torry Holt 94
Isaac Bruce 89
Shaun Mcdonald 37
Kevin Curtis 32
Marshall Faulk 50(not even starting last part of the year)
Mike furrey 1
Joey Goodspeed 11
Arlen Harris 4
Steven Jackson 19
Dane Looker 13

Again so what\'s your point? Bulger and Manning spread it around more than Brooks. And don\'t give me any Peyton and this magical season crap after this statement made by you:

Wrong yet again.

Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats
 

My reason for starting this thread was to prove that Joe Horn\'s stats weren\'t inflated due to Brooks locking on to Joe Horn. That has been proven and NOTHING can change the FACTS.

Now, saintwhodi, in an attempt to prove whatever it is he\'s trying to prove wants to talk about how many times Brooks throws to the 2nd and 3rd receivers.

What does this have to do with Brooks locking on to Horn? NOTHING !!!

But, for the record, Brooks threw the ball to Stallworth over 100-times.

It\'s true that Brooks didn\'t throw to Pathon as much as some other QBs threw to thier 3rd receiver. But they are called 3rd receivers becasue that\'s the QBs 3rd option.

Brooks hardly had time to find his first receiver due to the terrible blocking by the offensive line. That\'s something saintwhodi will never admit to, but I\'m sure any knowledgeable Saints\' fans knows it true.

Stats CAN be misleading. But, I\'m not trying to mislead anyone (unlike some) I\'m just giving you guys the cold hard facts.

The % of Brooks\' passes thrown Joe Horn\'s way cannnot be disputed. Facts are facts and that\'s all I\'ve given everyone...

Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats
 

How did you prove that, by saying other QBs lock on to their number ones? How doe sthat prove that AB doesn\'t? Open mouth, insert foot.

Holy crap. That might be the dumbest thing I have ever heard. If he locks onto Horn, that means there will be a disparate margin between balls thrown to Horn and balls thrown to other receivers. Are you seriously this thick? I used other QBs like Peyton and Bulger to show how they distribute the ball evenly, even though their top guys still get a lot of balls thrown their way. I can;t believe you just said that. Priceless.

I already killed you on this in ANOTHER discussion with Bulger, so trying to throw it out there cause the new guys prob didn\'t see it is weak. Bulger faced more pressure and the Rams gave up more sacks than us, easily. But of course you wouldn\'t try to mislead anyone. ROFLMAO!!

No they can\'t, and they show he locks on to Horn. Thanks.

Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats
 

saintwhodi --

Even though I\'ve proven that Brooks only throws the ball to Joe Horn 28.2% of the time ... you still can\'t admit the truth. Don\'t you think everyone sees the facts?

Then to make yourself look even worse, you REFUSE to admit that our offensive line was terrible at pass blocking last year.

How bad does the offesive line have to play before you admit it?

I just don\'t get you, dude. Why is admitting the offensive line played terrible so hard for you to do?

Why do you keep saying Brooks locks on to Horn when the facts are staring you right in the face?

I feel like I\'m talking to a brick wall.

All I ask is for everyone to look at the facts both saintwhodi and myself have posted and judge for yourself.

Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats
 

All I know is Horn had 94 receptions. how can you calculate pasess thrown to a certyain wr they don\'y have a stat for receivers attempts just receptions.

Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats
 

But they do have stats for \"pass attempts\" and we posted them on this thread.

Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats
 

One thing I find apparent in this forum is that there is no grey areas -- that there is no middle ground -- it has to be one way or the other--- To summarize the arguments

On Gumbos side ==== AB does not throw any more balls to Horn (% wise) than most QBs to their favorite receivers

On the opposing side --- If AB didn\'t get rushed so much (that he had to throw to his running backs) then he would have thrown all of those passes in the same proportion the receivers are in now which would make Horn\'s % be vastly higher than others making the argument for tunnel vision of AB.

Now -- as an impartial participant -- who disagrees with Gumbo more often than not -- I have to say Gumbo seems to have won this one :band2.sml:

Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats
 

I think what SW is pointing out is that AB doesn\'t have the ability to check-down to the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th receiver in a given pass play. It appears that he focuses on the primary receiver, and spends all of his allotted time watching that guy as he runs his route. He should be able to determine if that guy is going to be open or not, and check down to his alternatives, which AB has not shown a great ability to do. He has shown the ability to force the ball through a crack with his laser shots, but doesn\'t seem to have the poise to scan the field when the primary guy is doubled, or whatever. By the time he gets around to looking for someone else, it is too late...and I don\'t think the O-line is COMPLETELY responsible for that. You hear people talking all the time about QB\'s needing to have that little alarm clock going in their head so as to know when the time is up. No O-lineman can hold his block forever, thus, the need for the timer.

Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats
 

Well, that got pretty heated.

Here is a clarificatory question:

Horn - 94 receptions
Stallworth - 58 receptions
Pathon - 34 receptions
McAllister - 34 receptions
Williams - 33 receptions

What would this distribution look like if Brooks were locked on to Horn? What would it look like if he weren\'t?

Panthers
Muhammad - 93 receptions
Colbert - 47
Proehl - 34
Goings - 45
Mangum - 34

Bucs
Clayton - 80
Galloway - 33
Jurevicious - 27
Pittman - 41
Dilger - 39

Falcons
Price - 45
White - 30
Finneran - 23
Dunn - 29
Crumpler - 48

Aside from the Falc\'s those look pretty much like the same distributions to me. Either only Vick doesn\'t lock on, or only Vick doesn\'t lock on enough.

Here is an interesting point: Brooks doesn\'t throw to McAllister nearly as often as Delhomme or Griese throw to their backs. I guess it runs in the family, since Vick doesn\'t throw it to the back either.

On the whole, this is pretty inconclusive if you ask me. I don\'t think that Brooks locks on to Horn any more than he should given Horn\'s skill vs. the next best WR. However, I don\'t think these stats show one way or the other whether or not Brooks locks in too often.

Stats: http://www.nfl.com

Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats
 

Saint_LB --

Correct me if I\'m wrong here, but, the topic was Brooks locking on to Joe Horn.

The facts don\'t bear that out. The facts say that Brooks only throws the ball to Joe Horn 28.2% of the time.

Now, your opinion suggests that Brooks doesn\'t have the ability to check-down to the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th receiver in a given pass play.

But, again, the facts say something different. Simply saying that\'s how I feel isn\'t the best way to prove a point. Now, you\'ve got the right to state your opinioin, but let\'s not overlook the facts.

Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats
 

I agree with these points -- I have always said that AB has a habit of not checking off properly -- but mind you that works against the other receivers as well -- cause not every passing play starts off being a play for Horn.

Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats
 

I am not trying to prove a point at all. I usually just make observations and state my opinion. I don\'t feel the need to try to change anyone\'s mind, and know that it would be impossible to do that anyway.

Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats
 

Saint_LB --

Okay ... I understand. But, I think anyone who posts their opinion on a message board is trying to make someone see it like them. Or at least hope someone agrees with them. If not, then why post it in the first place? ;)

And I don\'t think Brooks is the best at reading defenses and I sure wouldn\'t put him in the eltie class of QBs when it comes down to it.

But, I do know that it\'s been proven that Brooks does NOT lock on to Joe Horn anymore than Bulger, Delhomme, or Haselbeck lock on to their number one receiver.

And to be honest, I can\'t read NFL defenses enough to know how any of those QBs progress through their reads. I aslo know that without the \"coaches\" tape, that you just can\'t see enough on the TV every Sunday to be accurate.

Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats
 

Every team has to have a #1 WR

Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats
 

LB you are right. Might as well give up. How would one player getting the MAJORITY of passes thrown his way as opposed to other receivers on the team prove a lock on mentality? Silly me. To say \"well he only throws 28% of the passes to Horn\" is just plain stupid. What is he gonna throw 100% to him? 50%? I doubt in the history of the NFL that there has been numbers like that. But 28.2% with YOUR NEXT BEST GUY being at 19% seems like a wide margin of difference to me, and I have shown that, repeatedly. I have also shown other so-called \"lock no\" QBs find their second and third options more often than AB. But whatever. You told me once LB I was wasting my time trying to talk sense into some, sorry I doubted you.

Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats
 

Well, I got into this one a bit late, so you\'ll have to disregard my earlier post as it was outdated by the time I was able to post it.

Here is a point of contention:

How does one use stats to show if a QB is \"locked on\" to one WR?

Two possibilities:
(1) Number of pass thrown to \"lock on\" target.
(2) Pass distribution over the team\'s WRs.

Notice that neither of these tell you if the QB was locked on directly, since these are the results of the play, not the process (where \"locking on\" occurs).

Thus, we need an argument to take us from (1) or (2) above to the conclusion that Brooks locked on to Horn.

Here are some suggestions:

(1) seems to show whether a particular WRs was thrown the ball more often than he should. This can only be done by comparing the number of times thrown to the #1 reciever of the other teams (there is the context). This seems to be Billy\'s point; the number of passes thrown to Horn vs. all other recievers (not broken down) is about the same as any other #1 receiver.

(2) will require an evaluation of the teams recievers with the team being compared to. Why? If a QB isn\'t stupid, he\'s going to throw it to the guy who will make the catch. So the context for this argument is a bit more complicated - not only do you have to show that the distribution of passes is different from our team to the team being compared, but you\'d have to say something about why a QB may or may not throw to a given receiver very often. The only way to show that he is locked on, in this case, will be to also show that the second and third WRs (as well as the TE and RB) are as good receiving options on both teams. This seems to be Whodi\'s point - the distribution shows that Brooks puts it to Joe at a higher rate when compared to the individual other players. The point that remains to be made is whether or not there is good reason for Brooks to throw to Horn more often than these other guys. Futhermore, formation distribution (how often the 3 wide set, or 2TE set, and so on) is used will matter here too.

Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats
 

Now Kool, I agree with what you said. My point was never that AB may not have had REASON to lock onto Joe, my point was simply that he does. I see you have broken it down it to a better explanaion than myself. Kudos. If that was the bone of contention, I accept full responsibility. I never thought to get into the reasons he may lock onto Joe, just simply to show he does.

Not to waste my stats, but I looked at last year\'s numbers too. AB threw the ball toward Joe 130 times. Second best was PAthon at 79. That\'s another huge margin. Stallworth was only at 50 but he was hurt half the year so I thought Pathon was a better judge.

SO all in all Kool, maybe AB doesn;t have the confidence to throw to the other guys, and I can understand that. But it doesn\'t mean he doesn\'t lock on, which he does, IMO.

Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats
 

I think what has been shown is this:

After Horn, AB distributes the passes pretty evenly. On other teams, after the number one guy, there is a number two guy who gets the ball more often than the other receivers.

The stats that have been given show that the number two receiver gets the ball more on other teams than he does on ours. It isn\'t clear to me that that is \"locking on\", but it is an interesting fact, isn\'t it?

PS - I\'m glad you liked that point about the reason for the distribution Whodi; I worked hard on getting it just right. ;)

Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats
 

GumboBC keeps saying that he proved that Brooks doesn\'t lock in on Horn. How can you say that you proved anything? I\'ve been keeping up with you and Whodi\'s debate all day, and I must say that Whodi clearly came out on top of this discussion. That\'s just my opinion though.

Also I think that had you not tripped up over your own numbers a few times, you may have presented a better argument. One last thing, I don\'t think it was fair that you were insinuating that Whodi was making up things to support his views. Where\'s the trust?

Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats
 

There are no \"proofs\".

My view, bignic, is that they were talking about two different things. Thus, my post earlier. I think both made interesting cases, and while I didn\'t enjoy reading all the jabs, I thought the outcome was actually pretty interesting, don\'t you?

Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats
 

You can lead a horse to water, but you got to hit him over the head to make him take a drink.

Anyone thirsty?

Look folks!!!

AB threw the ball to JOE HORN 28.2 % of the time. Get this people ... That means AB threw the ball some where other than to JOE HORN 71.8% of the time.

Do we all understand this? I certainly hope so because it\'s simple math. Adding and subtracting ain\'t hard to do.

Who cares where AB threw the ball to when he wasn\'t throwing it to Joe Horn. The POINT is (and I know it is because I started this damn thread myself) that AB doesn\'t lock on to Joe Horn any more than other NFL QBS.

Are we clear. Please someone tell me you understand this. I feel like I\'m teaching 4th graders.

Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats
 

Billy.

I understood your point and summarized it above. I can also see why the distribution of passes and to whom might be interesting.

No need to get excited. Two different points were made. Both interesting. I\'m not sure what to think yet. I don\'t think they show \"locking on\", but it isn\'t obvious to me that they don\'t either.

Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats
 

Frustration showing, huh? Okay, I\'m calm now.

Look, my point wasn\'t pass \"distribution\" to the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, wide receivers.

My point was pass distribution to JOE HORN. Who cares if AB throws to his TEs, RBs, or whatever more than his number 3 receiver? It\'s not relevent to this discussion.

I don\'t even know how this turned into a discussion about the 2nd and 3rd WRs.

Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats
 

I thought the outcome was actually pretty interesting, don\'t you? [/quote:2dc402d6d4]

As do I JK. Despite the acusation of lying, I thought overall this was a very well thought out debate on both sides. Go back and look at what Whodi posted to start this battle and it\'s funny what all came from that simple statment.

There were alot of compelling stats. While I\'m far from being a stat man myself, I rather enjoyed pondering all those numbers.

Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats
 

That\'s not all you don\'t know. ;)

Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats
 

Personally..I don\'t feel like Brooks has really been any more one sided toward Horn than any other Qb towards thier #1 guy...


28% just isn\'t a big enough slice to say he was only focused on that one guy...

But, when you figure we have 3 WR\'s, a TE, and a RB..on any given play

That\'s 5 potential recievers...an equal percentage would be 20%...then the argument could be made that perhaps Brooks favors Horn to a slight degree over most of the other options...but not to the extent of saying he is only locked in on him...

So..It\'s sort of a tie you guys...I think you both gave me great insight on a few numbers today..for what it\'s worth

Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats
 

Here is a way of thinking about this dispute:

Let\'s say QB A throws 15 passes. 5 to WR A, 1 to B, 1 to C, 1 to D, 1 to E, and so on.

QB B throws 15 passes. 5 to WR A, 4 to B, 3 to C, 1 to D, and so on.

We might say that QB A locked on to WR A, since he threw 33% of his passes to him. Of course, so did QB B. Do these distributions simply not matter at all? 66% of passes were thrown to players other than WR A.

Let\'s say that the league average is 33% of passes to the number one WR.

How does either position - the one that thinks that the overall passes thrown to WR A vs the other receivers OR the one that thinks that who got the ball (i.e. who got it when A didn\'t) - show that the QB was locked on or not locked on?

It seems to me that, in the abstract, neither view says much about whether WR A was locked on to. Could someone please fill in the blanks for me?

Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats
 

I think Kool, that is where you look at how these other QBs ditribute to their other guys to make a determination. Which I did. But it\'s moot to me. If you guys wanna carry on, have at it. I had my fun with Gumbo, and he had his fun with me. I presented it as best I thought I could, and provided other QBs distributions to show the disparity. But whatever.

Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats
 

I think the real response is the JOE HORN inflates AARON BROOKS\' stats.

Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats
 

My two-cents, again. I think it is rather obvious, If Gumbo\'s numbers are right, and they must be because Sw hasn\'t disputed them, that Gumbo makes a good point that 28% of all the balls thrown by AB going to Joe is not a lopsided number. So, if the argument is that AB throws only to Horn, then that is not true. However, if the argument is that when AB does throw to Horn, he locks-in on him for the duration of the route, then that statement, IMHO, is most definitely true.
I would like to get a total definition of \"locking-in\" before I draw any conclusions.

I\'ll tell you something else. If I were AB, I would be looking in Joe\'s direction often. Joe has two traits that make him an all-pro, and one of them ain\'t speed. He has great hands and he has the ability to get open. I think there is a difference between being quick and being fast. If you have quick, precise moves, you can leave a corner standing in his tracks. How many times have you seen Joe with a couple yards separation between him and the nearest defender. I\'d be looking for him, too.

Joe, according to the numbers, is either now, or soon to be if he\'s not traded, the all-time leading receiver. (For the Saints, that is.) I\'m just guessing, but I would imagine a lot of the records he will be breaking will be Danny Abramowicz\' records. Now that was a guy with no speed at all, but all he did was get open.

Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats
 

Gumbo BC

How many ball did horn drop ???

Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats
 

saintz08 --

I don\'t know. And I\'m almost scared to ask ... but ... WHY? ;)

Proof that Brooks didn't inflate Horn's stats
 

THe bottom line is this fellas:::::
Joe Hollywood Horn had 94 catches for 1399 yards and 11 td\'s. There is only one person better than him this year. Just face it everyone, Horn is the man!! STATS will prove it.