JKool

LK,

Fine question and interesting work.

My view is that teams SERIOUSLY overvalue draft picks. Every man and his dog wants a game changer - but they don\'t want just any game changer (like Edge), they want the next big game changer that has never been seen before.

As a result, FA isn\'t treated seriously enough, and a big stink is made out of draft picks.

Summary:
1. Draft Pick Value = probability player would be good + hope he will be a big deal
2. FA Value = probability player will be equally good on a new team (which is better known than the probability some draft pick will a big deal)

Analysis:
Draft picks aren\'t as valuable as people think they are.

Imperative:
Do better in FA and retain key players rather than bank on the draft.

Diagnosis:
Our FO isn\'t too hot.

"... I was beating them with my eyes the whole game..." - Aaron Brooks