Saints not expected to land a Compensatory Pick
 

Projecting The 2019 Compensatory Picks

https://saintsreport.com/threads/sai...y-pick.400382/

Re: Saints not expected to land a Compensatory Pick
 

oh boy...here we go
Can we at least enjoy the post-season before everyone starts complaining about how Roger hates us and it's not fair that we never get comp picks?

Re: Saints not expected to land a Compensatory Pick
 

Shocker

Re: Saints not expected to land a Compensatory Pick
 

The thought that Goodell, or any other single individual, arbitrarily awards compensatory picks is incorrect. It is all based upon a formula that considers factors such as "salary, playing time and postseason honors". See the following:

As the NFL explains, compensatory picks are awarded to teams that lose more or better compensatory free agents than they acquire. The number of picks a team can receive equals the net loss of compensatory free agents, up to a maximum of four. Compensatory free agents are determined by a secret formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. Not every free agent lost or signed is covered by the formula.

Although the formula has never been revealed, by studying the compensatory picks that have been awarded since they began in 1994, I’ve determined that the primary factor in the value of the picks awarded is the average annual value of the contract the player signed with his new team, with an adjustment for playing time and a smaller adjustment for postseason honors.

And ...

In order to qualify for the comp equation, a player must have been a true Unrestricted Free Agent whose contract had expired or was voided after the previous season (i.e., he cannot have been released by his old team); he must sign during the UFA signing period (which ended July 27 last year); if he signs after June 1[*], he must have been tendered a June 1 qualifying offer by his old team; his compensatory value or contract value must be above a specific minimum amount; and he cannot have been permanently released by his new team before a certain point in the season (which seems to be after Week 10) or, possibly, before getting a certain amount of playing time, unless he was claimed off waivers by another team.

Basically put, the Saints consistently fare better than most franchises in their decisions on what free agents to keep, let go, or acquire. Not being awarded compensatory picks is a good thing.

Re: Saints not expected to land a Compensatory Pick
 

Compensatory picks are a system that some teams have learned to game, and we are not one of those teams. The formula is very clear and many independent websites are able to forecast the picks very accurately. The big key is that when you add a free agent whose contract with another team ran out, it costs you, but if you trade for a player (ie Marcus Peters, Brandon Cooks, etc) or sign a player who was technically cut (Ndamakong Suh, etc) it costs you nothing. If you get a player via trade or cut, and then the following year their contract runs out and they leave you by normal contract expiration free agency, then adding them counts nothing against you, but losing them does count for you. There are also many technicalities with how option years and abilities to void deals affect whether losing a player counts, so you have to write contracts carefully and not just throw in 'cap wizard' years that mean all your players will leave via being cut.

There is a chance we could get compensation picks in 2020. The Teddy Bridgewater trade was a classic one to possibly get a compensation pick. We traded for him, which cost nothing in the compensation system. But his contract will run out and he may leave. Unfortunately he did not impress much in his start, so we are unlikely to hit the lottery where he leaves on a 15-20 million a year deal and we get a max compensation pick if we dont sign a free agent to match.

Re: Saints not expected to land a Compensatory Pick
 

all true ^^
the very big BUT is, "why play the game?"
do you want Davis and Coleman this season, or a third round pick in '19?
easy call

Re: Saints not expected to land a Compensatory Pick
 

So none to Teddy, even with the bicycle kick move?

Re: Saints not expected to land a Compensatory Pick
 

What if we hold on to Teddy?

Re: Saints not expected to land a Compensatory Pick
 

I think the basic idea is that they count how many non-cut free agents you added from other teams versus how many non-cut free agents lost to other teams. I think they have to be qualifying somehow, like losing a very bottom of the barrel free agent like say if we lost Devante Harris might not count. Then if we lost more than we gained, we get picks. Which picks we get depend on which extra players we lost don't match up with a player we gained. If we lost more big money players than we gained, we get higher picks, if we are even on big money players and our extra losses are small money players, we get late picks.

I don't think we have to play this game every year but its smart to factor it in. New England plays this game extensively, so if we never play it any year, we are basically saying New England is stupid, which their number of Super Bowl appearances and wins does not seem to support.

Lets say we want a veteran pass rusher, Terelle Suggs is cut, and Julius Peppers is a free agent, and lets pretend they are equally good for our scheme. If we get Suggs instead of Peppers, maybe that gets us a draft pick too, and we have to factor that in. Also lets say we lose 6 free agents in 2019 and 6 in 2020. If we acquire 6 free agents both years too, we get nothing. If we acquire 4 one year, and 8 the other, we may get 2 picks the other year, and they don't take away picks or roll over the deficit the year we get more.

All we have to do to get some compensation picks is line up one year where we replace some free agent signings with trades of late round picks for players, or signing players who were cut due to high salary years packed onto the end of their contract, or we let some short term rental players go. It seems reasonable to arrange some year where this happens.

If we hold on to Teddy, he has no affect on the compensatory pick system. We did not acquire him from a team that was trying to resign him, we acquired him by trade, and we would not lose him to another team, he would continue with us. Since we acquired him via trade, ie not via an expired contract from a team that got outbid, we cannot lose anything in compensation picks, we can only gain compensation picks if we get outbid for his continued services and that outbidding leaves us losing more free agents than we gained.

Re: Saints not expected to land a Compensatory Pick
 

Someday when I am over 90 years, old one of my grandkids will come into the nursing home to tell me the Saints finally got the first compensatory pick in franchise history and they'll also have to remind me what it is again.

Re: Saints not expected to land a Compensatory Pick
 

I know I make things "not fun" lol, but it is what it is. Pay attention to the verbiage, there is either awarded or earned; earned means that there is a formula and you either earned the picks or not, awarded means the League decides who to give the picks to. Making the formula secrete is just a way for the league to mask the fact that they give the picks to whom ever they wish to.

When you insert the term "value" into a formula you make the entire thing subjective, when you make "Pro-Bowl" part of the value number you make the whole thing a joke because the Pro-Bowl selection process is a joke.

There is no "gaming the system", that is like saying that there is a 'tax loophole' there is no such thing you are either within the letter of the law are you aren't. With the NFL you are either in the leagues good graces or you aren't... The Saints remain on the naughty list. :bandg:


What is a Compensatory Draft Pick?

These are draft picks in the 3rd through 7th round awarded to NFL teams who lost high value unrestricted free agents the prior year (this excludes "street free agents"). The actual formula used to determine the type of pick is not known, it's a closely guarded secret. The formula takes into account the lost player's performance, playing time, salary, and honors such as being named to the Pro Bowl.

In the off-season if a team signs more free agents than it loses, that team is not eligible for compensatory picks. Teams that sign and lose the exact same amount, but are deemed to have lost higher value players, are eligible for picks. It's important to note that compensatory picks can not be traded

Re: Saints not expected to land a Compensatory Pick
 

Re: Saints not expected to land a Compensatory Pick
 

We just don't know how to play the game. It sounds like football and chess is Peyton's only games

Re: Saints not expected to land a Compensatory Pick
 

The formula is well understood. Many fan websites are able to project exactly which teams will get exactly which picks. There are occasional gray areas if say a players contract automatically voids due to a mutually triggered clause and then he sits out a year with a knee injury and then he signs as a free agent elsewhere, does something like that count as a loss for his team or not? Trades and cuts dont count. You can argue the formula should change, buts its not a conspiracy, its well known. A team may get a high pick for losing some scrub, but thats because another team gave the scrub a big contract. The league does not try to evaluate which players turned out to be good, it evaluates who had free agents lured away with money.

If we lose one of Kamara, Lattimore, Ramczyk, and Thomas when they are all free agents, we should try really hard to lose one more free agents than we gain that year. If we lose one more than we gain, we get a really high compensatory pick. If we lose Kamara and sign say Artis Payne to make us even, we get nothing, even though we lost a 1st round quality player and replaced with a 7th round, because total numbers are even. If we lose any of the big names we need to sign an extra player who was cut or acquire a player via trade for a late pick, so that we come out with a net loss in the accounting and don't lose a 3rd round or higher pick over adding Artis Payne or Ted Savage.

Re: Saints not expected to land a Compensatory Pick
 

That's a head scratcher for me.. if we lose big we should try to add to the loss to gain a possible 3rd round pick and hope it pans out?

Maybe I just do not place that much value in a compensatory pick and figure that we do not get them because we dont take huge talent losses that require an offset.

Re: Saints not expected to land a Compensatory Pick
 

I'm with you there. Compensatory picks fall at the back-end of the 3rd round and are actually 4th rounders in a manner of speaking. Anything after the first two rounds are usually a crap shoot and for the most part reserve talent ... IF they make the cut long term.

I have always seen free agents as a known commodity and more dependable than the unknowns of draft picks.

Re: Saints not expected to land a Compensatory Pick
 

arrrgghhh
Davis and Coleman starting Sunday against Philly or the 97th pick in April?

It's all methodology. Loomis/ Payton prefer signing known quantities.
And let's face, we haven't exactly drafted well

Re: Saints not expected to land a Compensatory Pick
 

Losing Bridgewater will only effect the 2020 comp picks, if we don't sign a comparable FA

Re: Saints not expected to land a Compensatory Pick
 

Still handy to have though
You can take a punt on someone falling through injury or off field issues without touching your draft