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WhoDat!656 10-28-2019 06:05 PM
Next up - Falcons at Saints
 
https://boards.atlantafalcons.com/to...ons-at-saints/

stickman 10-28-2019 08:25 PM
Re: Next up - Falcons at Saints
 
I know that the Falcons are struggling right now, but let's take nothing for granted. Take care of business!

Nothing ruins a week just as it starts as losing to Atlanta.

foreverfan 10-28-2019 08:28 PM
Re: Next up - Falcons at Saints
 
Defeating us at our home would be their Superbowl.

Hopefully we beat them 3-28...


http://blackandgold.com/attachment.p...p;d=1563555750

burningmetal 10-28-2019 08:43 PM
Re: Next up - Falcons at Saints
 
I guess everyone should be pulling for Matt Ryan to be healthy for that game. Matt Shaub got them closer to victory then they've been in a while. Not that their game was ever in doubt. But, you know... Relatively speaking.

Matt Ryan has become an empty stat guy. Makes all kinds of mistakes, and when their defense inevitably implodes, he starts piling on the garbage yards.

CHA_CHING 10-28-2019 08:53 PM
Re: Next up - Falcons at Saints
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by burningmetal (Post 864675)
I guess everyone should be pulling for Matt Ryan to be healthy for that game. Matt Shaub got them closer to victory then they've been in a while. Not that their game was ever in doubt. But, you know... Relatively speaking.

Matt Ryan has become an empty stat guy. Makes all kinds of mistakes, and when their defense inevitably implodes, he starts piling on the garbage yards.
Matt Ryan is not the problem there. He is essentially having the same kind of season that Brees had between 2014 to 2016.

People would make this same remark about Brees putting up "empty stats" when we'd lose and he'd have a high QBR and Dan Marino-esque numbers. 5 years ago, we would be going ballistic on Saints forums talking about stat guys dissing on Brees for putting up great numbers in losses.

I know we hate on the Falcons as a rival, but Ryan definitely is not the problem.

The game was close cause they were playing the Seahawks - a team that always plays down to their competition and looks underwhelming when they are big favorites. Seattle has won 5 of their 6 games by a combined 15 points. 7 of them were against the Falcons, and all of these games have been against trash teams.

Schaub isn't going to win them more games than Ryan would.

burningmetal 10-28-2019 09:27 PM
Re: Next up - Falcons at Saints
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by CHA_CHING (Post 864680)
Matt Ryan is not the problem there. He is essentially having the same kind of season that Brees had between 2014 to 2016.

People would make this same remark about Brees putting up "empty stats" when we'd lose and he'd have a high QBR and Dan Marino-esque numbers. 5 years ago, we would be going ballistic on Saints forums talking about stat guys dissing on Brees for putting up great numbers in losses.

I know we hate on the Falcons as a rival, but Ryan definitely is not the problem.

The game was close cause they were playing the Seahawks - a team that always plays down to their competition and looks underwhelming when they are big favorites. Seattle has won 5 of their 6 games by a combined 15 points. 7 of them were against the Falcons, and all of these games have been against trash teams.

Schaub isn't going to win them more games than Ryan would.
A few things here: I didn't say Ryan was THE problem, I said he makes a lot of mistakes and piles on the stats when the game is over. That has been accurate. It wasn't always that way with him, but over the last couple of years it is. He's had talent around him on offense, and yet he has been mistake prone.

And like it or not, Drew Brees did put up some empty numbers during those down years. I was on here during that time saying as much, and people didn't like me very much for it, or at least that was my impression. In no way, however, did I say that Drew wasn't still a top flight QB. It was just that he was chunking the ball around more than ever due to our bad defense, and I was trying to make the point that, as much fun as it was to see Drew put up numbers, and as much as we love the guy, it would be better to have a game manager at QB and a top 5 defense, than to continue to be bottom of the league in defense and continue to pile up yards on offense that weren't leading to wins. People took that as me blaming the losses on Drew, but they were missing my point, entirely. It wasn't his fault, and in a perfect world you could have Drew AND a great defense. The point was always that the Saints needed a better defense, and they would need more balance on offense to help control the ball.

And if you ever wanted to know what that would look like, we got to see it for five weeks with Teddy Bridgewater, a much improved ground attack, very limited turnovers, and a dominant defense... 5-0. Now that Drew is back, they are going to be even better. And over the last couple of years since the Saints drafted Kamara and put together a real defense, the team has been winning, even though Drew hasn't put up the same eye popping stats he used to. He's not playing worse. He's just FAR more efficient because he doesn't have to force the issue.

So the point about Drew back then was not that he wasn't good, it was that his numbers were inflated and somewhat misleading. With Matt Ryan, how often are the Falcons even in games? I don't remember the Saints being consistently blown out a few years ago.

I'm not saying Shaub will win the Falcons more games. I don't know if either QB will win another game for them this season. But sometimes having a veteran backup come in and just take advantage of what the defense gives them can help an offense who's starter is trying to be a hero and making things worse. Matt Ryan is not Drew Brees. The pressure of having to score 30 a game just to be competitive does not appear to be something he handles very well.

In no way does Shaub worry me. I just think he might be a little more settled at this point. He knows he's not going to get many more chances to play.

saintfan 10-28-2019 09:41 PM
Re: Next up - Falcons at Saints
 
Never take those fools lightly. They suck, but they'll play up for us.

K Major 10-28-2019 09:43 PM
Re: Next up - Falcons at Saints
 
I honestly thought Matt Schaub retired years ago.

CHA_CHING 10-28-2019 10:25 PM
Re: Next up - Falcons at Saints
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by burningmetal (Post 864682)
A few things here: I didn't say Ryan was THE problem, I said he makes a lot of mistakes and piles on the stats when the game is over. That has been accurate. It wasn't always that way with him, but over the last couple of years it is. He's had talent around him on offense, and yet he has been mistake prone.

And like it or not, Drew Brees did put up some empty numbers during those down years. I was on here during that time saying as much, and people didn't like me very much for it, or at least that was my impression. In no way, however, did I say that Drew wasn't still a top flight QB. It was just that he was chunking the ball around more than ever due to our bad defense, and I was trying to make the point that, as much fun as it was to see Drew put up numbers, and as much as we love the guy, it would be better to have a game manager at QB and a top 5 defense, than to continue to be bottom of the league in defense and continue to pile up yards on offense that weren't leading to wins. People took that as me blaming the losses on Drew, but they were missing my point, entirely. It wasn't his fault, and in a perfect world you could have Drew AND a great defense. The point was always that the Saints needed a better defense, and they would need more balance on offense to help control the ball.

And if you ever wanted to know what that would look like, we got to see it for five weeks with Teddy Bridgewater, a much improved ground attack, very limited turnovers, and a dominant defense... 5-0. Now that Drew is back, they are going to be even better. And over the last couple of years since the Saints drafted Kamara and put together a real defense, the team has been winning, even though Drew hasn't put up the same eye popping stats he used to. He's not playing worse. He's just FAR more efficient because he doesn't have to force the issue.

So the point about Drew back then was not that he wasn't good, it was that his numbers were inflated and somewhat misleading. With Matt Ryan, how often are the Falcons even in games? I don't remember the Saints being consistently blown out a few years ago.

I'm not saying Shaub will win the Falcons more games. I don't know if either QB will win another game for them this season. But sometimes having a veteran backup come in and just take advantage of what the defense gives them can help an offense who's starter is trying to be a hero and making things worse. Matt Ryan is not Drew Brees. The pressure of having to score 30 a game just to be competitive does not appear to be something he handles very well.

In no way does Shaub worry me. I just think he might be a little more settled at this point. He knows he's not going to get many more chances to play.

It's totally possible for a QB to play amazing and still lose cause their defense sucks. Dan Marino was the greatest historical case for this until Brees' prime was wasted with us fielding god awful defenses.

During Marino's prime, the Dolphins had a bottom 4 league worst defense in 1986, 1987, 1988 and 1989. Sound familiar? Brees had the same prime and Marino also no doubt wins a 2nd MVP in 1986 when he had 42+ TDs and a monster season. Marino also set the record for lowest sack percentage in NFL history in 1988 and 1989, but it didn't matter cause the Dolphins' defenses were pathetic and weren't going to help him win games. Brees had a very similar problem with our team fielding league worst defenses for years.

Guys always love to talk about Brees being robbed an MVP. It's not Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers or Patrick Mahomes' fault - it was these crappy defenses during Brees' prime. Brees' absolute peak was wasted with us fielding god awful defenses.

Brees would've won an MVP, possibly 2 by now if we just put a competent team around him in the years of 2012, 2014, 2015 and 2016. That was his prime.

The 2012 team was averaging 28.5 points a game, but they went 7-9 cause the defense was historically bad.


The stats disagree with you.

Week 6 (2019) Passing Stats: Matt Ryan In A Losing Effort

Ryan had the absolute most value of a QB in that week they ended up losing to the Cardinals. His comeback erased by a missed extra point. Over on FiveThirtyEight group discussion articles, they were talking about how he's pretty much having a season like Brees used to have.


Brees used to be the king of the type of season that Ryan is having now. It's actually kinda funny that Falcons fans are getting a taste of this medicine after they spent years making fun of us enduring these heartbreaking losses with a QB putting up amazing numbers.

Five Thirty Eight wrote this brilliant article in 2017 about how the Saints awful defenses pretty much wasted Brees' prime.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...aints-defense/

Quote:
But Brees isn’t the reason the Saints have lost 27 games in three seasons — the defense is. Among all 32 teams from 2014 to 2016, the Saints ranked 28th, 32nd and 31st in points allowed per game, respectively. Over those three seasons, the Saints gave up 28.2 points on average in Brees’s starts — that’s practically a touchdown more than the league average during that time (22.7). No other current starting quarterback in this time period has nearly this high a hurdle to clear to get a win.1 The three quarterbacks with the most wins during that time — Tom Brady (35), Aaron Rodgers (32) and Russell Wilson (32) — have defenses that have allowed an average of 18.6, 22.1 and 17.1 points per game, respectively.2
Let’s pretend for a second that New Orleans had an average defense — not even a good one — over the past three seasons. If the actual points surrendered by the Saints in each of the 47 games that Brees started in 2014-16 were replaced with the league average for the season, how many more games would Brees have won?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/wp-conte...o-saints-1.png

Among the 47 games Brees started in the past three seasons, the Saints would have won 10 more games (technically, they would have won 12 games they actually lost and lost two they had actually won, for a net increase of 10). In both 2014 and 2016, Brees’s record would have been 11-5, and New Orleans would have made the playoffs. To be sure, this is just a back-of-the-napkin calculation, and several variables can distort this expected-win statistic — for instance, Brees and the Saints probably wouldn’t have scored as much if they hadn’t been constantly losing.

But when you look at all the non-Brees starting quarterbacks who also started from 2014 to 2016, the connection between clearing the league-average point total and winning games is quite strong: The quarterbacks in our sample average 0.97 wins for every one time they clear that bar. Brees, on the other hand, registered 0.68 wins for his better-than-average offensive days. Matthew Stafford is the anti-Brees in this regard: The Detroit Lions’ QB has 27 wins since 2014 despite leading an offense that beat the league-average point total just 19 times.

burningmetal 10-28-2019 11:01 PM
Re: Next up - Falcons at Saints
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by CHA_CHING (Post 864704)
It's totally possible for a QB to play amazing and still lose cause their defense sucks. Dan Marino was the greatest historical case for this until Brees' prime was wasted with us fielding god awful defenses.

During Marino's prime, the Dolphins had a bottom 4 league worst defense in 1986, 1987, 1988 and 1989. Sound familiar? Brees had the same prime and Marino also no doubt wins a 2nd MVP in 1986 when he had 42+ TDs and a monster season. Marino also set the record for lowest sack percentage in NFL history in 1988 and 1989, but it didn't matter cause the Dolphins' defenses were pathetic and weren't going to help him win games. Brees had a very similar problem with our team fielding league worst defenses for years.

Guys always love to talk about Brees being robbed an MVP. It's not Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers or Patrick Mahomes' fault - it was these crappy defenses during Brees' prime. Brees' absolute peak was wasted with us fielding god awful defenses.

Brees would've won an MVP, possibly 2 by now if we just put a competent team around him in the years of 2012, 2014, 2015 and 2016. That was his prime.

The 2012 team was averaging 28.5 points a game, but they went 7-9 cause the defense was historically bad.


The stats disagree with you.

Week 6 (2019) Passing Stats: Matt Ryan In A Losing Effort

Ryan had the absolute most value of a QB in that week they ended up losing to the Cardinals. His comeback erased by a missed extra point. Over on FiveThirtyEight group discussion articles, they were talking about how he's pretty much having a season like Brees used to have.


Brees used to be the king of the type of season that Ryan is having now. It's actually kinda funny that Falcons fans are getting a taste of this medicine after they spent years making fun of us enduring these heartbreaking losses with a QB putting up amazing numbers.

Five Thirty Eight wrote this brilliant article in 2017 about how the Saints awful defenses pretty much wasted Brees' prime.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...aints-defense/
I'm sorry, but I have to ask: Did you actually read what I said?

You just left yet another post of all kinds of useless links and random commentary to make a point that could have been stated in a couple of paragraphs. And your entire point was to tell me that it wasn't Brees' fault... That was exactly what I said. Allow me to refresh your memory:

"It was just that he was chunking the ball around more than ever due to our bad defense, and I was trying to make the point that, as much fun as it was to see Drew put up numbers, and as much as we love the guy, it would be better to have a game manager at QB and a top 5 defense, than to continue to be bottom of the league in defense and continue to pile up yards on offense that weren't leading to wins. People took that as me blaming the losses on Drew, but they were missing my point, entirely. It wasn't his fault, and in a perfect world you could have Drew AND a great defense. The point was always that the Saints needed a better defense, and they would need more balance on offense to help control the ball."

Somehow you seem to have missed all of that. Which is exactly what I was talking about when I said that people back then were always missing the point. You just perfectly illustrated how easily people become blinded by their fandom to the point of being unable to grasp a simple point because they are offended by part of a comment that seems negative, while completely neglecting the context of the entire post.

Drew played fine during those years. But the sheer volume of his numbers were often misleading, as no one should ever have to throw that many passes. It's just not winning football, and that is, and was, the entire point. He's throwing the ball less now, but his average yards per pass is up, his interception percentage is way down, and the offense controls the ball much more effectively. This is enabled greatly by having a great defense, so that Brees does not have to force the issue.

Again, as we saw over a 5 week span, the Saints were just fine with a game manager, with a great defense and an ability to control time of possession. They are better with Drew. But Drew is better with this kind of team than he was 3 years ago. Eli Manning once threw for almost 5000 yards. Not all 5000 yard seasons are created equal.

Drew's yardage was very similar from year to year for about 10 years, but his efficiency, and the efficiency of the offense, as a whole, were far different in the playoff years. All of those years, the Saints had a defense at least in the top 15, or created a ton of turnovers ('09), and had a legitimate ground game. The Saints finally figured out how to build a team again. They were fortunate to get some great returns on late round picks and undrafted free agents at the beginning of the Payton/Brees era, and it's like they thought that they could always do that. This mindset lead to some awful drafts. Now that Loomis is less hands on, and the scouting department was overhauled, things appear to be much better.

Vrillon82 10-29-2019 02:51 AM
Re: Next up - Falcons at Saints
 
Obvious how much Kyle Shanahan did with that team.

Its just something how bad they got until you look at the coaching staff, front office, you begin to see just how much of a clean out they need to do. Most of the front office is guys that got fired off bad teams, coaches came from bad teams, DQ played Atl thinking he made the Seattle defense what it is, but truth is, he came in afterward.

SmashMouth 10-29-2019 04:18 AM
Re: Next up - Falcons at Saints
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by foreverfan (Post 864673)
Defeating us at our home would be their Superbowl.

Hopefully we beat them 3-28.
https://i.imgur.com/6j2F1e1.gif

K Major 10-29-2019 07:20 AM
Re: Next up - Falcons at Saints
 
Watching the body language from over half of that Falcons team last few weeks ...

They've quit on Dan Quinn & the season however they will take "shots" against the Saints.

Vrillon82 10-29-2019 01:42 PM
Re: Next up - Falcons at Saints
 
They may very well get up for this game.

Rugby Saint II 10-29-2019 02:24 PM
Re: Next up - Falcons at Saints
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vrillon82 (Post 864827)
They may very well get up for this game.
Then we'll just have to put them back down!:greengun:

homerj07 11-01-2019 12:43 PM
Re: Next up - Falcons at Saints
 
Hey Cha Ching - You are using facts to prove your point. You know that's cheating right???

:doh:

ScottF 11-01-2019 02:05 PM
Re: Next up - Falcons at Saints
 
We could decide this game in the 1st quarter if we come out blazing. Their defense is god-awful, and we all know they've never had any fight in them.

I'm shocked they didn't can Quinn before the bye week.

Vrillon82 11-01-2019 03:05 PM
Re: Next up - Falcons at Saints
 
Saints blow Falcons out, they will fire Quinn next day, I can guarantee that.

RailBoss 11-03-2019 01:45 AM
Re: Next up - Falcons at Saints
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by K Major (Post 864692)
I honestly thought Matt Schaub retired years ago.
Matt Schaub thought he retired too.

vpheughan 11-03-2019 08:03 AM
Re: Next up - Falcons at Saints
 
While living in the Hell Hole that is South Carolina I was able to watch the college careers of Clipboard Jesus, Matty Ice, Matt Schaub, Philip Rivers and Russel Wilson. In those days Matty Ice was a Clemson Killer!! Oddly enough I moved to Big 10 county and was able watch Russel Wilson again at Wisconsin!

spkb25 11-03-2019 09:51 AM
Re: Next up - Falcons at Saints
 
We are supposed to win this game going away. At home and the much better team. Never count them out, never. Good news, AK will be chomping at the bit, Drew extra time to get even more healthy. Healthier, at home against rival. We should be up.

The Dude 11-03-2019 01:44 PM
Re: Next up - Falcons at Saints
 
These are the kind of games we lose. Throw records out the window. That being said I expect a relaxing Sunday next week. Extra Xanax for the 49ers game.

SmashMouth 11-03-2019 03:26 PM
Re: Next up - Falcons at Saints
 
https://i.giphy.com/media/3o7aCYDNm1kXgSUgXm/source.gif

vpheughan 11-03-2019 04:33 PM
Re: Next up - Falcons at Saints
 
Toonces!!

Crusader 11-04-2019 03:13 AM
Re: Next up - Falcons at Saints
 
The Falcons looks like a dumpster fire but its a division game which always makes me worry a little. I hope we can come out early and just smash them in the face.

burningmetal 11-04-2019 03:14 AM
Re: Next up - Falcons at Saints
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by homerj07 (Post 865330)
Hey Cha Ching - You are using facts to prove your point. You know that's cheating right???

:doh:
Actually, he was linking nonsense to try to prove a point that had nothing to do with the original premise. It's key to pay attention to what you're responding to, before going off on a trail to nowhere.

vpheughan 11-04-2019 06:16 AM
Re: Next up - Falcons at Saints
 
1 Attachment(s)
New Rule!! All Threads Have To Supply A Few Grains Of Attachment 13297 As Well As the Usual Suspects Cats & Boobs!!

K Major 11-04-2019 09:24 AM
Re: Next up - Falcons at Saints
 
Fundamental football and you keep adding W's. Atlanta will be no different.

-Win battles up front (on both sides of the ball).
-Establish the run with that bum (sarcasm) Murray :rolleyes: & AK.
-Move the chains on 3rd down (guys not named MT).
-Continue to be ball hawks on D.

Throw out the ATL record. They'll compete. It's a week to week league.

Don't bring your A game, you'll lose (see Green Bay vs Chargers on yesterday).

ScottF 11-04-2019 09:31 AM
Re: Next up - Falcons at Saints
 
So... some info about the actual game:
Atl will have a new punter and new kicker
Matty will be back, but with a high ankle sprain, who knows how effective he'll be. I expect us to get a lot of pressure against a weak line (21 sacks)
Atl's pass defense is really, really bad- Brees has gotta be licking his chop

We hope AK is ready, but he might not be needed if we come out throwing. Cook is still a ??

K Major 11-04-2019 09:44 AM
Re: Next up - Falcons at Saints
 
I'm hopeful that we see Tre'quan Smith as well vs Atlanta.

He hasn't played in 6 weeks. That is concerning.

jeanpierre 11-04-2019 03:12 PM
Re: Next up - Falcons at Saints
 
NFL should have Rivalry Week(s) built into the season, Week 3 and Week 14...

CHA_CHING 11-04-2019 04:24 PM
Re: Next up - Falcons at Saints
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jeanpierre (Post 865770)
NFL should have Rivalry Week(s) built into the season, Week 3 and Week 14...

https://twitter.com/Saints/status/1191343823521275907
The NFL already has this. Week 17 matches are always divisional and have been since 2002. It's done to try and bring heat to the last week if the divisional race or a playoff berth is coming down to 2 divisional teams.

WhoDat!656 11-04-2019 06:22 PM
Re: Next up - Falcons at Saints
 
Walker: 'National hate week' begins as Saints and Falcons gear up for 100th regular-season meeting

https://www.nola.com/sports/saints/a...0fe80d9e4.html

The Dude 11-04-2019 06:47 PM
Re: Next up - Falcons at Saints
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by CHA_CHING (Post 865786)
The NFL already has this. Week 17 matches are always divisional and have been since 2002. It's done to try and bring heat to the last week if the divisional race or a playoff berth is coming down to 2 divisional teams.
I’ve also noticed that the division games as a whole are being pushed further and further to the back end of the season. Teams have also been playing their divisional opponents with less time between meetings. I like it.

ScottF 11-05-2019 06:53 AM
Re: Next up - Falcons at Saints
 
and the Popeyes vs Chick-fil-a rivalry is heating up also

foreverfan 11-05-2019 11:35 AM
Re: Next up - Falcons at Saints
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by vpheughan (Post 865686)
New Rule!! All Threads Have To Supply A Few Grains Of http://blackandgold.com/attachment.p...1&d=1572869772 As Well As the Usual Suspects Cats & Boobs!!

It's not like I ain't been pulling my share.

https://img.memecdn.com/dayum-kitty_o_1612123.jpg

https://i.imgflip.com/yalbk.jpg

jeanpierre 11-05-2019 12:06 PM
Re: Next up - Falcons at Saints
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by CHA_CHING (Post 865786)
The NFL already has this. Week 17 matches are always divisional and have been since 2002. It's done to try and bring heat to the last week if the divisional race or a playoff berth is coming down to 2 divisional teams.
Yeah, but many of those games are meaningless as teams are sitting players for the playoffs...

I'd rather play the ATL at the beginning of the season, then towards the end, with a couple of games left so that the teams are as full-strength as they can be...

homerj07 11-07-2019 02:01 PM
Re: Next up - Falcons at Saints
 
http://images.scribblelive.com/2013/...76fb04_500.jpg

ScottF 11-07-2019 02:54 PM
Re: Next up - Falcons at Saints
 
1 Attachment(s)
never gets old

ChrisXVI 11-07-2019 03:05 PM
Re: Next up - Falcons at Saints
 
I hope we beat them so bad that Dwayne Washington has 100 rushing yards in mop-up duty!


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