Ten Educated Guesses On All The 2020 Offseason QB Movement
 

Drew Brees, Taysom Hill, Teddy Bridgewater: It’s not that complicated

What it boils down to:

• I think it’s more likely than not that Brees returns, eschewing TV for one year.

• I think Hill, barring an unlikely restricted-free-agency offer of good money and a likely starting job, will remain a Saint in 2020.

• I think Bridgewater is most likely (but not certainly) gone, because he knows the Saints want to give Hill the chance to be Brees’ heir.

https://nbcprofootballtalk.files.wor...1069778082.jpg

BREES

Like his friend and quasi-mentoree from San Diego, Philip Rivers, Brees knows he’ll have 20 years to do football on TV if he wants (or to do politics, or to be anything other than a quarterback), and only one or two to be a quarterback at a high level with a legitimate chance to win a Super Bowl. He and Payton are such a good fit that they complete each other’s sentences. That’s literally true; I saw it in a Saturday night QB meeting in New Orleans in 2018. Even if he walks into the ESPN Monday night booth, or some booth for some network, at something like $7 million per year, that’s a quarter or a fifth of what he’d make taking one shot at a Super Bowl—and he knows the Saints are close. Plus, chances are there will be another big network job there for him in ’21 or ’22, when his body is telling him, “Enough.”

HILL

I think Hill will have the chance to return in 2020 even if Brees retires. I think the Saints would probably give him the shot to win the starting job—and wouldn’t want to pay Bridgewater to keep from the open market and a starting job somewhere else. Payton was honest last week in this column, telling me he thinks it’s likely Hill will get an offer sheet in free-agency. I’m not so sure, but whatever the offer is, Hill already feels the love from one of the most imagination play-designers and callers in this century, Payton. So, somehow, the Saints will make it worth Hill’s while to stay for one more year, and let him know he’s next in line when Brees leaves.

Assuming Hill is going to be a good to very good NFL starter when Brees leaves is a gigantic leap of faith and could be way wrong. But the other day I put on the Chargers-Saints preseason game from last August on NFL GamePass and saw Hill, in 32 minutes, complete 11-of-15 and lead the Saints back from a 17-3 deficit to win. It’s preseason, and who cares. But before you say Hill can’t play, or before you say Hill is a fools-gold Tebow II, watch some of the plays Hill made. “Taysom Hill, I take my hat off to him,” Chargers coach Anthony Lynn said that day. “He’s a heck of a player.” Moreover, Payton thinks Hill can do it. He’s seen him every day for almost three years. Wouldn’t he know better than those on the outside?

And stop this nonsense about how Hill’s too old, and who wants to start a rebuild behind a 30-year-old quarterback. (He turns 30 Aug. 23.) He’s played 1,125 snaps in three NFL seasons, 62 percent on special teams. He’s 30 because of a two-year Mormon mission, a fifth college season at BYU, and three NFL seasons in the shadows. He’s not going to fail because he’ll be 30 or 31 when his starting career begins. He’ll fail, if he does, because he’s not good enough.

Hill succeeding is no sure thing. But too many people are too quick to dismiss him. I’m not.

BRIDGEWATER

I just can’t see the Saints laying out big money to sign Bridgewater, even if Brees walks. That would be choosing Bridgewater long-term over Hill, which might be smart. But I just don’t see the Saints, in the event Brees retires, paying Bridgewater to be the man for the next three or four years, thus forcing Hill to take almost any offer in restricted free-agency. And so . . .

Teddy Bridgewater: Tampa Bay makes sense

I can hear it now: Bridgewater doesn’t have the deep arm Bruce Arians needs. I would dispute that. When Arians put Carson Palmer in the pilot’s chair in Arizona, his previous NFL yards per attempt in Cincinnati and Oakland was 7.2. Bridgewater’s career NFL yards per attempt: 7.2.

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Re: Ten Educated Guesses On All The 2020 Offseason QB Movement
 

Three educated guesses......Drew is back in New Orleans. Hill is back in New Orleans. Bridgewater is playing elsewhere. Honestly, I couldn't care less about where the others wind up. Go Saints!

Re: Ten Educated Guesses On All The 2020 Offseason QB Movement
 

But I thought we we’re trading our offensive line, Thomas, Kamara, Jordan and Davis plus all of this years draft picks for Burrow. Am I misinformed?

Re: Ten Educated Guesses On All The 2020 Offseason QB Movement
 

Yup. That's the way I see it.

Re: Ten Educated Guesses On All The 2020 Offseason QB Movement
 

Brees will be back, and probably Hill. I just don’t see anybody promising Hill a first year start at QB. He wants more money, and I don’t blame him.

Bridgewater, someone will probably sign him. Burrow is a delusional pipe dream. I understand being an LSU fan, but fantasies of that magnitude aren’t healthy lol

Re: Ten Educated Guesses On All The 2020 Offseason QB Movement
 

Brees is going to return and we'll end up overpaying him, bring Hill back and then let Bridgewater walk.

No one else in the league is going to pay Taysom Hill to be a starting QB cause he isn't starting QB material. I can't believe so many people want him over Bridgewater and talking about us running Baltimore's offense when they got smoked in the playoffs. If it's true that Payton wants him to be Brees' successor over the QB who went 5-0 and was #2 in the league in deep ball percentage completion, than he has completely lost it.

My biggest fear is letting Bridgewater walk and him going to some team who beats the crap out of us. If the Bears would move on from Trubisky, he'd be the right QB there to get them back to the playoffs. I don't think Arians would help Bridgewater at all. Winston is a turnover machine but QBs in his system usually become INT crazy due to his philosophy of dropping back and throwing bombs.

I'm hoping Brees retires and we bring Bridgewater back, but we're the Saints. Things rarely ever go our way.

LOL at the thought of us getting Burrow. He's going to be drafted by Cincy who will mostly ruin his career like they have done to Dalton and had pretty much done to Palmer before him.

Re: Ten Educated Guesses On All The 2020 Offseason QB Movement
 

MAGNANIMOUS OF YOU TO BECOME THE SPOKESPERSON FOR THE NFL'S MOST "WHINING FAN BASE"!! :rolleyes:

By the way YOU forgot to "BLAME THE OFFICIALS" :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Re: Ten Educated Guesses On All The 2020 Offseason QB Movement
 

Brees needs to come back, if not we'll have over $50 million in salary tied to the QB position.

Re: Ten Educated Guesses On All The 2020 Offseason QB Movement
 

I've heard this mentioned before by someone else here. I asked him this same question and never got a reply.

What do you consider as "overpaying" Brees? Where would your threshold lie?

Re: Ten Educated Guesses On All The 2020 Offseason QB Movement
 

Your worst nightmare is happening. Said it during or shortly after TB’s time behind center this year ... no way he returns to Saints in 2020. The job will not be offered, Brees will resign and Hill will resign and be given the first shot following Drew.

Will not take anything away from what TB accomplish but I just do not see him as the heir apparent QB in Coach’s offense.

Re: Ten Educated Guesses On All The 2020 Offseason QB Movement
 

$20 Million.

Re: Ten Educated Guesses On All The 2020 Offseason QB Movement
 

OK. Since Brees would rightly walk away from that insult then who is your next Saints QB that you plan to pay $20 million or less?

You are aware that the top NFL QB market is around $35 million a year right? Maholmes is likely to get a $40 million average salary. So why exactly would you insult Brees with such a lowball offer?

SFIAH

Re: Ten Educated Guesses On All The 2020 Offseason QB Movement
 

Based upon what criteria? The top 16 QB's in average salary are all making in excess of $20 million. So you are saying that Brees, in your opinion, belongs in the lower half of starting QB's, right?

Many would argue that Brees remains one of the top five, but surely one of the top ten QB's in the league today. $25 million per year is the tenth highest salary as of today in the NFL. The top five are all making $32 million per year or more.

Re: Ten Educated Guesses On All The 2020 Offseason QB Movement
 

Well, since we know Brees is coming back for sure now, any new guesses?


Here's mine -

1. We finish 9-7, 10-6 or 11-5. I'm going with 9-7 if the NFC South truly improves, the other 2 records if we get to slide through a cupcake division again.

2. Defense regresses a bit due to Mike Nolan's departure. We know how this is going to be with Allen.

3. Offense struggles with 3rd down percentage again like 2013 and 2017. They'll still rack up stats, but they aren't going to finish in the top 5.

4. We lose in the playoffs yet again with Brees playing badly, meanwhile the opposing QB (bonus points if it's some mediocre QB who hasn't won a playoff game) has the game of his life and possibly one big play that just seals it. I'm going with an NFC West opponent here. I can see Wilson throwing up a hail mary to beat us, or Goff or Garropolo having a career game against us.

Re: Ten Educated Guesses On All The 2020 Offseason QB Movement
 

Nope. Carnac knows all.

But officially, 19-0!

:bng:

Re: Ten Educated Guesses On All The 2020 Offseason QB Movement
 

I'm waiting to see who picks up Bridgewater? BB might be licking his chops waiting on Bridgewater. Their in rebuild mold needing around 2 years the way BB works, that gives Bridgewater the time he needs to truely learn the playbook. NE is where I think he ends up. I'm going to hate to lose this guy.

Re: Ten Educated Guesses On All The 2020 Offseason QB Movement
 

We shall see soon enough.

But hey, good for 2 Glove Teddy. He deserves the opportunity to start again after that horrific injury, turning down the job in his home city to stay as our back up.

Colts (I don't think they believe in Brissette is the long term answer), Bucs (Jameis is probably gone) & maybe the Dolphins again ... potential "landing spots".

Now that TB is positioning himself on getting paid & Andrus Peat getting OVERPAID ... compensatory picks coming perhaps?

Re: Ten Educated Guesses On All The 2020 Offseason QB Movement
 

Very, very likely.
even after we sprinkle Loomis Dust on the cap we won't have more than 15 million to spend. Just Teddy and Peat will come close to that. Add 1-2 defenders that we will inevitably lose (Klein, Robinson, David O) and we will be in the black.

Re: Ten Educated Guesses On All The 2020 Offseason QB Movement
 

Read an article about a week ago that demonstrated how New Orleans could free up $54 million in cap through bonus conversions, extensions, restructures and cuts. Of course, it was incumbent upon keeping Brees ... which has happened.

Re: Ten Educated Guesses On All The 2020 Offseason QB Movement
 

I could see the Colts being in the market for Rivers

Re: Ten Educated Guesses On All The 2020 Offseason QB Movement
 

Maybe we tender Hill at 3.1 million, which is a second round pick if matched. We're not exactly flush with cash, but that seems fair to me.
Thoughts?

Re: Ten Educated Guesses On All The 2020 Offseason QB Movement
 

No way in my book. Hill is worth more than that with the way he can contribute to our offense ... and not even at QB. He is well worth the $4.6 million tender amount for the first round pick. There is a good chance all teams would let him ride knowing they would have to contract him to a higher number than $4.6 million AND forfeit their first round pick. Given that we'd have him for the $4.6 million number.

If we slap the second round tender on him some team might be more willing to offer him a deal averaging $7 million per season, for example, knowing they would only be losing a second round pick. We could then only retain him by matching that $7 million or take the second rounder.

To me it is a slam dunk using the first round tag. Win/win.

And we have FAR more cap available than the current numbers show.

Re: Ten Educated Guesses On All The 2020 Offseason QB Movement
 

Average schmaverage. We have a ton of younger guys that I'd rather see we spend the Money on and we have a couple of pretty big needs to fill to have a legitimate shot on a title.
I have pretty little patience with a player maybe wanting $30 million a year if that keeps us out of contention. Brees is top five but can't win it alone. He either cares about winning or getting paid. I don't care if its either one but if its the latter I just hope he is perfectly honest about it. And none of the "he needs to take care of his family" BS. None of his decendants will ever have to work if they don't squander the fortune he has amassed.

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/1...atrick-mahomes

Re: Ten Educated Guesses On All The 2020 Offseason QB Movement
 

Agree- I would be fine with him at $4.6m
Disagree- I don't think any team is going to give up it's #1 for him and match it

Re: Ten Educated Guesses On All The 2020 Offseason QB Movement
 

If he gets a dollar under $32 million per year he is giving a hometown deal. The NFL is a business first and foremost. The players are all in it to make the most that they can the quickest that they can because every play could be their last. And that's as it should be. Many fans are under the delusion that we pay their salaries and have a right to be concerned about what they get paid. The fact is that ticket prices are a drop in the bucket of the $14.5 billion in annual revenues generated by the NFL.

If you read the article you would have seen this ...

"It’s overly simplistic to say that paying a quarterback a lot of money prohibits a team from being successful. New Orleans’s Drew Brees, Indianapolis’s Andrew Luck, and Seattle’s Russell Wilson each make over $20 million a year. We’re dealing with a small sample size, but what is clear from the 2018 season is that there are too many quarterbacks being paid like superstars. And it’s very bad for team-building if your highly paid quarterback doesn’t play like a superstar."

Drew Brees is a superstar and deserves to be paid as a superstar because he can win games on his own.

The article uses Mahomes as an example for success. There's the mistake. Mahomes is a generational type of player. For every Mahomes there are 100 low paid QB's that cannot take a team to the promised land with the best of rosters. The Chiefs are successful not because of Mahomes' salary, but because of his talent. Talent trumps all (except for luck) win it comes to winning QB's.

Re: Ten Educated Guesses On All The 2020 Offseason QB Movement
 

That's the consensus of the analysts I have heard on the matter. There are too many unknowns for a team to take a chance with their first round pick on Hill. But a second rounder is another story. If we truly want to keep him then the first round tag is the way to go.

Unless we can work out a long term backloaded deal with him instead.

Re: Ten Educated Guesses On All The 2020 Offseason QB Movement
 

I truly don't give a **** about all that "its a business", "next play could be their last" and all that hoopla. Yeah sure if the player is a low round draft pick, a career backup or such and they get a chance to strike it rich well then by all means go for it.
Brees on the other hand has made close to $250 million (according to business insider) over his career and he is at the point where he has to choose between milking every penny he can or trying to win one more title.

Without fans in the stands no huge TV-contracts, no merch sales and so on. It is all connected. If the fans decide they won't buy the product anymore due to whatever reason the NFL will feel it sooner or later. The fans have a right to be concerned about whatever the hell they like when it comes to the teams they support. Without the fans there would be no teams in just a short while.

Re: Ten Educated Guesses On All The 2020 Offseason QB Movement
 

But the fact is those fans still show up regardless of what players get paid. You are in a very small minority. The vast majority of fans don't give a **** what a player makes. You are welcome to stay at home and even tune out completely. It isn't going to make a bit of difference. The way YOU feel is not the players' problem. It is a YOU problem.

What YOU fail to understand is that you are in a microscopic minority. If people really felt the way you do there wouldn't be record revenues every year. I've heard the exact same gripes for the past 30 years from a vocal few, yet the game keeps growing and will continue to grow for the foreseeable future.

You are wasting your time and energy *****ing and moaning about it. Just be happy you have football to watch and enjoy. If you aren't enjoying it you are free to stop.

:bng:

Re: Ten Educated Guesses On All The 2020 Offseason QB Movement
 

Interesting how you completely miss the point but spend an awful lot of words being condesending. Thats a YOU problem.

Re: Ten Educated Guesses On All The 2020 Offseason QB Movement
 

I'm not missing the point at all. You have the right to your opinion. Just because I point out the fact that the vast majority of fans really don't care about your concern appears to put your panties in a wad.

Re: Ten Educated Guesses On All The 2020 Offseason QB Movement
 

Power in numbers. Same thing in my trade, it's just some are to blind to see and has slowly been destroying my trade. The contractors have the power of 100% selectivity, really can't be worse than that. Only way to get the power back would be to stick together, but good luck with that now days, it's Bubba's best friend or good ole' Johnny with less skill working more nowdays. Talk about taking a giant step back and never going to take a step forward again unless people wake up.

Re: Ten Educated Guesses On All The 2020 Offseason QB Movement
 

Still with the insults? That is typically what people bring out when they have nothing of value to add to a conversation.

Re: Ten Educated Guesses On All The 2020 Offseason QB Movement
 

I'm sorry. I'm missing out on the insult?

:confused:

Re: Ten Educated Guesses On All The 2020 Offseason QB Movement
 

Re: Ten Educated Guesses On All The 2020 Offseason QB Movement
 

$20 mil is only an insult if you allow it to be.

If Brees is as high character as you believe he is, wouldn’t he sacrifice a few bucks to get the talent to win?

More money won’t put another Lombardi on the mantle, and he knows that.

Re: Ten Educated Guesses On All The 2020 Offseason QB Movement
 

Re: Ten Educated Guesses On All The 2020 Offseason QB Movement
 

Let's not start virtue signaling, You'd be quite happy with him playing for free if it got you your title.

Honestly... How are you different from Drew? You both are solely looking after your own interest.:confused: