SmashMouth

On Tuesday morning, the Democrats launched an independent group called Battleground Texas, which is capable of making the Lone Star state a battleground by 2016 and a lean-Democrat state by 2024, effectively breaking the back of the national GOP and blocking a Republican path to the White House.

Yes — that Texas: The state that has not elected a single statewide Democratic official in 10 years, with Republicans going 100-0; the state that has had an entirely Republican government since 2002, with current super majorities in the legislature; and the state that hasn’t voted for a Democratic president since Jimmy Carter in 1976.

History aside, if neither party lifts a finger to change current trends, the demographic changes taking place in Texas will — by themselves — seal it as blue by around 2040. The Democrats, however, plan to lift more than a finger; and if they play their cards right, they could speed the process up by 25 years, putting Texas in play much sooner.

Sound far-fetched? It isn’t. And although that timeline is going to be difficult for the Democrats, they have the right path — and the right people — to pull this coup off in three steps. But first, some background.

Demographics

Today, Hispanics make up 41 percent of Texas’ citizenry, while whites made up 43 percent. The white electorate’s plurality, however, will not last — because the Hispanic population’s birth rates are higher, the Hispanic population is still growing through immigration, and the Hispanic population is younger (with a large population not yet at voting age). If legal Hispanic immigration stays consistent with 2000-2010 levels, Texas could be a plurality Hispanic state by 2017, and a majority Hispanic state by 2036.

Both parties know that Hispanics are not a monolithic group, and they are not all Democrats. Though nationally they lean toward the Democrats (67 percent in 2008, 71 percent in 2012), in Texas, Democrats hold less sway (63 in 2008, and unknown in 2012 because there weren’t any exit polls).

Indeed, the Texas GOP is a different animal from the national party, and it wins Hispanic support in larger numbers than the national party, making it more difficult for Texas Democrats to make inroads. Gov. Rick Perry’s 2010 re-election, for example, won 39 percent of Hispanics, and Real Clear Politics reports that in 2012, “the Texas GOP increased the number of Hispanic elected officials from 58 to 78.”

These statistics, plus Texas GOP policies that include a softer stance on immigration than neighboring Republicans, have led some on the right to dismiss the prospect of a blue Texas. “The Texas Republican Party is different and far stronger than its counterparts in other states,” Americans for Tax Reform President Grover Norquist wrote in a Jan. 31 column entitled “Dems shouldn’t mess with Texas.”

But the Dems are very capable of messing with Texas through three steps. And that’s just what they’re fixing to do, starting with voter registration.

1) Voter registration

While there are about 9.5 million Hispanics in Texas, compared with 11.5 million whites, Hispanics only accounted for about 20 percent of the Texans who voted in 2008 and 2010. One of the two reasons? Voter registration.

In 2008, Hispanics made up 54 percent of Texas’ registered voting electorate, while whites and blacks held even at 74 percent. And in 2010, Hispanics were registered at just 53 percent, while whites and blacks were at 67 and 62 percent, respectively. Over all, Texas is home to 1.5 million unregistered Hispanic-Americans, 500,000 unregistered African-Americans and 200,000 unregistered Asian-Americans — all populations the Democrats intend to target.

2) Voter participation

But the fight to win a voter doesn’t end with voter registration — the next step is voter participation. A party can register all the people it wants, but if they don’t show up on Election Day, it doesn’t make a difference.

Hispanics lag behind in this aspect, too: In 2008, 70 percent of registered Hispanic voters turned out, while whites and blacks were tied at 88 percent. In 2010, only 43 percent of Hispanics turned out, compared with 65 percent of registered whites and 62 percent of registered blacks.

The Hispanics are underperforming as far as voter participation is concerned. Democrats know that this leaves a lot of room for improvement — a lot of room for outreach.

3) Voting blue

Now comes the harder part, at least as far as a 2016 timeline is concerned, because shifting public opinion is harder than registering voters or increasing turnouts. But the bottom line is this: If the Democrats accomplish their first two goals, and get Texan Hispanics in line with national Hispanic party affiliation, they could put Texas in play in 2016. And while swinging public opinion is difficult, it certainly isn’t impossible — particularly giving the Democrats’ demonstrated ability to micro-target potential voters with data-driven messaging. (BEDFORD: How Romney’s consultants lost the election as soon as it began)

In 2008, 35 percent of Texan Hispanics voted for the GOP. No exit polls were taken in Texas in 2012, but the national Hispanic GOP vote was only 27 percent — four points lower than the national Hispanic GOP vote in 2008. So, going off of limited data, and giving the GOP the benefit of the doubt, the Democrats would need to swing Texan Hispanic voters their way by between four and eight points.

And while Republicans like Mr. Norquist and Texas Gov. Rick Perry say that the Democrat’s goal is a pipe dream because of the Texas GOP’s differences from the national GOP, they would be well served by studying the case of former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, who, despite a roundly liberal record on abortion and other social issues, was painted as part of a national, socially conservative machine by 2012 Democrats. Then-candidate Elizabeth Warren didn’t focus attacks on Mr. Brown for his quotes regarding abortion, for example — she instead ran ads attacking former Missouri Rep. Todd Akin’s quotes on abortion.

In the next Texas election, Texas Republicans should not expect to be spared attack ads highlighting Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer’s harsher immigration policies.

By making races national when convenient, both parties have discovered a winning strategy — and one that can overwhelm a single state’s party apparatus.

Vlytics, a Republican data and analytics firm run by veterans of national and statewide campaigns, made no bones about the Democrat’s chances. “We’ve run a model on the Texas demographics; we know that the Democrats have too,” Vlytics partner Brian Stobie told The Daily Caller. “We know, and the Democrats know, that if they achieve these three goals, they can turn Texas purple, or even blue, in as little as four years. What is unclear is if the GOP knows this.”

But who is capable of pulling just this scenario off? Enter: Battleground Texas and its senior adviser, Jeremy Bird.



Read more: 3 steps: How Dems plan to make Texas a battleground by 2016 | The Daily Caller

Danno

Only one way they can win it back. More handouts, the race card and class warfare.

Its the only reason Crats ever win.

Rickh

The shape the Republican Party is in today is largely self-inflicted. From "W." to the "rape guys" to 47%.

Democrats merely take advantage of what is coming out of Republican mouths.

Don't hate the player hate the game.

SmashMouth

Ok... I give up.... what is that ..."rape guys"

Dems are better organized and take advantage better of technology and have better ground game... AND last but not least, are able in some districts to get out the vote to 150% of the vote. Kudos!

Rickh

You really didn't hear about this during the campaign? It was pretty big news on most outlets outside of Fox News ... Oh well, enjoy:

Republican Statements on Rape Cause Firestorm - NationalJournal.com

You know only one party in 2012 had any voter fraud allegations. I'll give you a hint, the party name starts with an "R"

Virginia voter fraud case expands to focus on GOP firm - Washington Post

TheOak

You give us an 'Investigation"?
How about found guilty...
Despite What Democrats Claim, Voter Fraud is Real - Peter Roff (usnews.com)
Barack Obama’s ACORN Registers Dallas Cowboys To Vote In Nevada | Start Thinking Right
Alleging fraud, authorities raid voter group - News - ReviewJournal.com



Anyway in regards to the OP... Democrats want Texas?

Molon Labe!

Rickh

I have no problem revealing the glass house Republicans are in when it comes to voter fraud.

The BRAD BLOG : Republican U.S. House Staffers Indicted for Felony Election Fraud as GOP Fraud Epidemic Continues
I see your conviction of voter fraud and raise you one conviction for a secretary of state:
Indiana Secretary of State Convicted of Voter Fraud | ThinkProgress

and yes, with the changing demographics in TX... something better change for the GOP or it'll be purple in the next election.

It'll will be nice for me, I'll be able to attend some of these campaign events.

TheOak

Where in Tx are you?

TheOak

Ill see your Sec of State and raise you one President.

Obama has been commuting fraud to his voters from the start.


He also was the lawyer for ACORN, an organization that has been committing voter fraud on such epic levels that they changed their name.
http://www.judicialwatch.org/blog/20...ifferent-name/

Rickh

I live in Katy, North side of I-10