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this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; I've never met anybody who doesnt know the "Germans bombed Pearl Harbor" speech....

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Old 09-25-2012, 05:04 PM   #21
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Re: Done

I've never met anybody who doesnt know the "Germans bombed Pearl Harbor"
speech.
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Old 09-25-2012, 05:10 PM   #22
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Re: Done

Originally Posted by The Dude View Post
Bobby and Deke seem to think we can go 10-6. So if you put any stock into what they say there is a shred of hope. That and the fact that we seem to break the odds of what teams are not supposed to do, like when they said no team had ever lost the last 3 games and gone to the SB. They say only 3% chance to make the playoffs so I guess we could break those odds.
I'm in law school, and one of the first things you learn about evidence is that just because MOST people act or perform a certain way is totally irrelevant to determining how this person did or will act.
In addition to that, this team, and the reasons it is 0-3, are completely unique in the history of the league, so the statistics don't even begin to apply.
We're in uncharted territory fellas, there is no way to know how this season turns out until January comes around.
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Old 09-25-2012, 05:36 PM   #23
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Re: Done

Originally Posted by alexonfyre View Post
I'm in law school, and one of the first things you learn about evidence is that just because MOST people act or perform a certain way is totally irrelevant to determining how this person did or will act.

Well, that is pretty contrary to what, for example, psychology and sociology teach us.

Naturally you can't look at statistics and say with a 100% certainty that a certain person will act in a certain way in a certain situation based on, for example, some of his characteristics. But you can make an educated guess based on statistical probabilities based on previously gathered data(evidence) as to the likelihood of the said person acting in a certain way under certain circumstances.

I would think that the same principles could be applied to the science of law, and they are in a way, IMO, when a lawyer tries to convince the jury that they'd act in a same way, in the same type of a situation, and under the same circumstances as did the defendant. And, therefore, they should be lenient when deciding on the verdict. I mean in the end, it comes down to behavioral science, and in a way most of us are "programmed" by our society to act in a certain way in a certain situation, the "outliers" to this being sociopaths.

But I do agree with your assessment of the situation the Saints are in now, and the uniqueness of the situation does make making educated guesses based on statistical evidence very hard.

Furthermore, I confess that I know very little about how investigations into matters of the law are conducted, so I'm sure your statement above holds strength, at least how it pertains to the field of law.
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Old 09-25-2012, 06:04 PM   #24
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Re: Done

Originally Posted by FinSaint View Post
Well, that is pretty contrary to what, for example, psychology and sociology teach us.

Naturally you can't look at statistics and say with a 100% certainty that a certain person will act in a certain way in a certain situation based on, for example, some of his characteristics. But you can make an educated guess based on statistical probabilities based on previously gathered data(evidence) as to the likelihood of the said person acting in a certain way under certain circumstances.

I would think that the same principles could be applied to the science of law, and they are in a way, IMO, when a lawyer tries to convince the jury that they'd act in a same way, in the same type of a situation, and under the same circumstances as did the defendant. And, therefore, they should be lenient when deciding on the verdict. I mean in the end, it comes down to behavioral science, and in a way most of us are "programmed" by our society to act in a certain way in a certain situation, the "outliers" to this being sociopaths.

But I do agree with your assessment of the situation the Saints are in now, and the uniqueness of the situation does make making educated guesses based on statistical evidence very hard.

And I confess that I know very little about how investigations into matters of the law are conducted, so I'm sure your statement above holds strength, at least how it pertains to the field of law.
I guess my point was a little bit lost:

My point was that the statistic means that 3% of TEAMS HAVE MADE IT to the playoffs from 0-3, not that THE 2012 SAINTS have a 3% CHANCE OF MAKING IT.

There is no such thing as a "CHANCE" of making the playoffs (outside of the betting world,) we don't spin a roulette wheel to determine the playoff teams. There are too many intervening factors to even make a relative guess at that until late in the season.
Then we have the "0-3" statistic, which encompasses way too many factors to be relevant to any team. By that statistic the Saints are exactly the same as the Cleveland Browns.

Stats that would be relevant to us would be "Avg. wins of a team with no head coach" ; "Avg wins of teams having 13 wins before going 0-3" or something similar.
It turns out they have looked at the last one by the way and it looks like about 6, but most of those teams suffered from a retirement or injury of key players, which is still similar to us, but not directly comparable.

In the law, past experiences and societal norms are relevant to discuss "reasonability" for certain issues like self-defense, but all these statistics would mean about the Saints is that it is not "unreasonable" to believe that they won't make the playoffs. However to say that a season is "over" after three games is equally unreasonable for the EXACT SAME REASON! If the season were over then how did the 95 Lions and the 98 Bills make it to the playoffs? And even if we lose to Green Bay, how is the season over if the 92 Chargers were able to make it to the playoffs from 0-4?

There is simply no rational way to put any team in or out of the playoffs at this point in the season (except the Browns, because they would have trouble winning a BCS championship this year.)
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Old 09-25-2012, 06:06 PM   #25
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Re: Done

Check out the brain on Alex and Fin!!!
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Old 09-25-2012, 06:15 PM   #26
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Re: Done

How about this: The potential for an 0-3 team who is bad enough to actually go 0-3 could be less than some other team that wasn't bad enough to go 0-3?

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Old 09-25-2012, 06:17 PM   #27
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Re: Done

Originally Posted by RaginCajun83 View Post
Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Until Drew is on IR this team still has fight in it. Let's see what Vitt can do before this season is considered lost besides the Packers don't look all that great this year
This is this the second time I've seen someone on here say the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor. Is this some sort of inside joke I'm unaware of or do y'all not realize that Japan bombed Pearl Harbor?
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Old 09-25-2012, 06:19 PM   #28
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Re: Done

Nevermind, apparently it is some sort of joke.
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Old 09-25-2012, 06:24 PM   #29
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Re: Done

Originally Posted by burningmetal View Post
Nevermind, apparently it is some sort of joke.
See post #20. You must be very young.
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Old 09-25-2012, 06:25 PM   #30
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Re: Done

danno, do you realize that was 30 years ago? wow!
theres an intern in the studio next door that doesnt know who HawkEye,
Radar, or Hot Lips are.
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