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Posted 02-01-2010 at 11:56 AM by Binx
Updated 02-01-2010 at 03:51 PM by Halo

Instead of doing things piecemeal, i'll just put it all in big chunks, beginning with:

I heard it again last week on the NFL network, how Joe Namath and the Jets “made the oddsmakers look stupid.” From that afternoon in January 1969 through the present, every superbowl week, sportswriters poke fun at the bookies over Broadway Joe. For the most part, I have been quite proud that most of the folks in New Orleans, among just a handful of other places, know better. But I am still shocked that in the 21st century, anyone would be that stupid. Bookies set odds to ensure an even split of gamblers. They know that big money gamblers carefully study the teams and weigh the conditions before making their bets. Casual betters tend to toss in a few ounces of heart and follow along…. often to extremes. The line for Super III started at 13, the gamblers’ number, and kept going up, because just about every casual bettor in the world was picking the Colts… The spread finally hit 18 in Vegas – got up to 30 in some locales – but the big money continued to pile up on the Colts. Now, had the Colts won big half the bookies in the country would have been wiped out. The Jets were their heroes, not their nemesis. I’ve always wondered why there isn’t a statue of Namath in Las Vegas… right outside one of the sportsbooks he saved….

Newspapers have farm and business editors and courthouse and political writers, but when it comes to games they have sportswriters. These Scribes of Destiny, as Mr. Liebling would say, are neither authors or journalists. They don’t write well enough to be novelists and their lack of reporting skills and unabashed promotion of private businesses prevent their being journalists. Having no particular skills, the Scribes become selfappointed experts, declaring that only they know what is best … not the gamblers, not the coaches, not the owners, only the sportswriters. Have you ever noticed how when using the spread, most Scribes have a 50-50 record… same as flipping a coin. Ah, and the spring ritual of the NFL draft!!!! Professional football teams spends hundreds of thousands, if not millions, on scouts and support staff to evaluate college talent and correlate what’s available with what the team needs. Next day, some sportswriter gives them an F for drafting the wrong guy. In fact, the sportswriter will give every team a grade... emphatically terming picks right or wrong without using a single qualifier for any team… and the next day will explain why the management of the Walkoffs should keep 11 pitchers instead of 10… the point being that the Scribe knows best…

After the gamblers have sized up the game and the bookies have sized up the gamblers, it is time for the sportswriters to explain why they are wrong. Never let the facts stand in the way of a good story. If the consensus of the real experts is that a game is pretty much a tossup, the Scribes will project a rout… if the gamblers expect a route, the Scribes will discover why it will be close…. Remember all the crap about the great Beanie Whatshisname who added another dimension to the Cardinals’ attack – guy ranked 24th in the league in rushing….. But, the Scribes have to say something… gotta have their exclusives… (Dizzy Dean, on his first visit to New York as a rookie phenom in 1932, told a different life story to each newspaper, said he wanted to give everyone an exclusive.)

The Saints
ALL that said, I will now explain why the Saints will win,,,, The reasons given by so many writers and wags, make so sense… “Saints needed turnovers to win, the Colts won’t do that”: Why? The Colts had more fumbles and interceptions than the Vikings during the season… I think the Saints defense had a little something to do with that… everything else about the Colts’ defense or running game do not hold up on close analysis of the statistics…

QUARTERBACK: The Colts may have the edge at quarterback… but that’s it…

RECEIVERS: If the Colts have the best quarterback, then, with identical receivers, they would have the best completion percentage and the best yards per attempt… BUT, the Saints, with a slightly inferior QB have a higher completion percentage and gain half a yard more per throw…. Logically, the difference must be the receivers… Therefore, the edge here must go to the Saints….

RUNNING BACKS: Colts were at the bottom in total rushing yards. This this judge guy says its because they didn’t have to run… I think their the 31st ranked yards per carry may have had more to do with it. Saints by a big margin.

OFFENSIVE LINE: Colts line was the best at protecting the passer… Saints were third best…. The Saints edge in run blocking is enormous: edge Saints.

DEFENSIVE LINE: Both teams are lacking here. The Colts give up fewer rushing yards but the Saints rush the QB better. Add the Saints ability to force turnovers. Again, Saints.


COACHING: Gotta go with the Saints…

INTANGIBLES: God’s team: Saints.
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