AsylumGuido

Via spotrac.com

Ian Book - 133 overall - 2021 - Saints HC

Jesse Palmer - 125 overall - 2001 - Giants OC

I'd safely say less than 10% drafted at this point or after have become what would be deemed as a successful starter regardless of who was doing the drafting.

Crusader

So fourth rounders then. Sure you could hit gold on one but the chances are pretty darn slim.

AsylumGuido

Yup. And I believe I was pretty generous saying 10% of all QB's drafted at that point or later by any team are what could be classified as a success as a starter.

AsylumGuido

I knew I'd seen the numbers before. I posted something from this study a few years ago, I believe.

Here is a QB related excerpt from the link above. Interestingly enough, it refers to both both Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston.



The General Numbers

I broke the positions down as follows: QB, RB, WR, TE, OL, DL, LB, DB.

What we find is that from 2005 until 2014:

2,465 players (non-kickers) were drafted.
629 of those drafted became starters for at least half of their NFL careers
Of the 2,465 players: 122 were QBs, 207 were RBs, 421 were OL, 143 were TE, 317 were WR, 442 were DL, 303 were LB, and 510 were DB.
The first thing we notice is that there is a very small percentage of QBs that have been drafted in the last decade. And you wonder why it's so hard to find a really good elite QB. Second, offense and defense were almost evenly split -- 1,210 offensive players and 1,255 defensive players.

Position Specific

When we get into looking at each position, the first round is king. Even though the first round rules, some positions fare a lot better than others. The disparity among the other rounds varies by position. However that cannot be overlooked when you look at the statistical probability of success by round.

Now let's look at little closer at the QBs.

Of the 122 QBs drafted in the last 10 years only 25 have been starters for at least half of their career.

The first round gives you a 63% chance of finding a starter.

The second round gives you a 27% chance, the third a 17% chance, then it really plummets from there with 8% in the fourth and 6% in the 7th.

In the last 10 years, 38 QBs have been drafted in the 5th and 6th rounds and not one has become a starter.

On average three QBs are drafted in the 1st. This year looks to be a little below average with two probable first rounders.

With the Alex Smith debate raging, no matter where you fall in the argument you will have to agree that unless you catch lightning in a bottle (Russell Wilson) draft success is limited to mostly the first round. Also, I would guess that a majority of those QB starters were high to mid first rounders. It also means that there is a high bust rate for any QB taken after the first round. The Tom Brady / Russell Wilson's of the world are rare occurrences. For the Chiefs, this means that the likelihood of Aaron Murray becoming more than a clipboard holder is about the same as my blind dog finding buried treasure in my backyard. So unless Mariota or Winston falls to No. 18, bank on Smith being the guy for a few more years.

“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill

QBREES9

Good for him.