Here’s a chart that I suspect will surprise you; it surprised me. It shows first down percentage, by season, for Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Rodgers.

2009: Manning [40.8], Rivers [40.7], Brees [39.3], Brady [36.8], Roethlisberger [36.6], Rodgers [33.3]

2010: Rivers [40.4], Brady [36.6], Manning [36.4], Rodgers [36.2], Roethlisberger [35.4], Brees [34.6]

2011: Brees [40.8], Brady [40.6], Rodgers [38.7], Rivers [38.2], Roethlisberger [38.0], Manning [N/A]

2012: Brady [38.4], Brees [38.2], Manning [38.1], Rodgers [35.0], Roethlisberger [34.0], Rivers [31.9]

2013: Manning [42.7], Rivers [40.1], Brees [35.5], Rodgers [34.7], Brady [33.7], Roethlisberger [32.7]

2014: Rodgers [40.0], Brees [37.5], Roethlisberger [37.4], Manning [36.6], Brady [36.5], Rivers [35.1]

2015: Roethlisberger [35.6], Brees [34.7], Brady [34.4], Rivers [32.2], Manning [31.7], Rodgers [28.0]

2016: Brees [37.7], Brady [36.5], Roethlisberger [35.0], Rivers [34.9], Rodgers [34.4]

2017: Brady [37.3], Rivers [36.4], Brees [36.2], Roethlisberger [35.6], Rodgers [32.7]

2018: Rivers [39.4], Brees [39.3], Roethlisberger [35.5], Brady [34.7], Rodgers [31.0]

The chart begins in 2009, which was the first year “defenseless receiver ” rules were in place, and works significantly to Rodgers’ benefit, since his 1stD% in 2008 was just 31.9, lowest among the qualified players listed above. I realize I’m comparing Rodgers to the best QBs of his generation, but all these players have longer careers than Rodgers, and if we want to rank Rodgers in the same neighborhood as them, he needs to be clearly superior during the period they were all active. Instead — by this metric, at least — he lags behind. He ranks last (among this elite group) in five of the ten seasons listed, and in the bottom half of the group eight of the ten seasons. He has never led the league in first down percentage (Tony Romo was at 40.6% in 2014).

Brad, thank you for highlighting the importance of first downs in the Aaron Rodgers write-up. Moving the chains is literally what allows an offense to drive down the field, and yet picking up first downs is rarely talked about, even among stats people. It's a vital statistic that needs to be discussed far more than it currently is.

I've been tracking marginal passing first downs for a while now. Here are the career numbers for HOF candidates of recent times, read as passing 1D over league average:

P Manning +629
Brees +397
Brady +367
Rivers +314
Roethlisberger +276
Favre +266
Warner +193
Rodgers +97
E Manning -26

Rodgers is way behind the other legends at producing first downs through the air (Eli doesn't count, his HOF candidacy is a joke). While he has added some extra first downs with his legs, Rodgers still doesn't move the chains as reliably as a QB of his stature should. That means a lot of Rodgers' drives have fizzled out in situations where the other greats would've kept the possession going.

I think this is a result of Rodgers' paradoxical playing style. He holds the ball forever looking for a big play to materialize while simultaneously going out of his way to avoid the risk of an interception. The side effect of this style is that Rodgers often throws the ball away or takes a sack instead of throwing the intermediate pass to move the chains.