“I don’t think you want me to turn off 11 years,” Rodgers tells Mike Silver of NFL Media in a story that Silver says is coming early this week. “There’s stuff that not many people in the league can do at the line. That’s not a humble brag. That’s just a fact.”

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/aaron-r...205544894.html



This one quote should reinforce our appreciation to having Drew Brees at QB and not this pompous, egotistical baby. Just got his previous SB winning head coach fired, already feuding with his new one and bragging about himself.

Here’s a chart that I suspect will surprise you; it surprised me. It shows first down percentage, by season, for Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Rodgers.

2009: Manning [40.8], Rivers [40.7], Brees [39.3], Brady [36.8], Roethlisberger [36.6], Rodgers [33.3]

2010: Rivers [40.4], Brady [36.6], Manning [36.4], Rodgers [36.2], Roethlisberger [35.4], Brees [34.6]

2011: Brees [40.8], Brady [40.6], Rodgers [38.7], Rivers [38.2], Roethlisberger [38.0], Manning [N/A]

2012: Brady [38.4], Brees [38.2], Manning [38.1], Rodgers [35.0], Roethlisberger [34.0], Rivers [31.9]

2013: Manning [42.7], Rivers [40.1], Brees [35.5], Rodgers [34.7], Brady [33.7], Roethlisberger [32.7]

2014: Rodgers [40.0], Brees [37.5], Roethlisberger [37.4], Manning [36.6], Brady [36.5], Rivers [35.1]

2015: Roethlisberger [35.6], Brees [34.7], Brady [34.4], Rivers [32.2], Manning [31.7], Rodgers [28.0]

2016: Brees [37.7], Brady [36.5], Roethlisberger [35.0], Rivers [34.9], Rodgers [34.4]

2017: Brady [37.3], Rivers [36.4], Brees [36.2], Roethlisberger [35.6], Rodgers [32.7]

2018: Rivers [39.4], Brees [39.3], Roethlisberger [35.5], Brady [34.7], Rodgers [31.0]

The chart begins in 2009, which was the first year “defenseless receiver ” rules were in place, and works significantly to Rodgers’ benefit, since his 1stD% in 2008 was just 31.9, lowest among the qualified players listed above. I realize I’m comparing Rodgers to the best QBs of his generation, but all these players have longer careers than Rodgers, and if we want to rank Rodgers in the same neighborhood as them, he needs to be clearly superior during the period they were all active. Instead — by this metric, at least — he lags behind. He ranks last (among this elite group) in five of the ten seasons listed, and in the bottom half of the group eight of the ten seasons. He has never led the league in first down percentage (Tony Romo was at 40.6% in 2014).

Brad, thank you for highlighting the importance of first downs in the Aaron Rodgers write-up. Moving the chains is literally what allows an offense to drive down the field, and yet picking up first downs is rarely talked about, even among stats people. It's a vital statistic that needs to be discussed far more than it currently is.

I've been tracking marginal passing first downs for a while now. Here are the career numbers for HOF candidates of recent times, read as passing 1D over league average:

P Manning +629
Brees +397
Brady +367
Rivers +314
Roethlisberger +276
Favre +266
Warner +193
Rodgers +97
E Manning -26

Rodgers is way behind the other legends at producing first downs through the air (Eli doesn't count, his HOF candidacy is a joke). While he has added some extra first downs with his legs, Rodgers still doesn't move the chains as reliably as a QB of his stature should. That means a lot of Rodgers' drives have fizzled out in situations where the other greats would've kept the possession going.

I think this is a result of Rodgers' paradoxical playing style. He holds the ball forever looking for a big play to materialize while simultaneously going out of his way to avoid the risk of an interception. The side effect of this style is that Rodgers often throws the ball away or takes a sack instead of throwing the intermediate pass to move the chains.

Some interesting notes for the Rodgers vs Brees debate.

Over on FP blogs, Brad Oremland lists Rodgers in the top 100 players at 103.

He had this glaring stat to point out.

Best Players in Pro Football History: 101-110, By Brad Oremland



I don't know why first down percentage is rarely (if ever) mentioned by stat nerds. It's one of my favorite stats cause it's supposed to be an offense's job to move the ball down the field and get into position to score.

For those that love to argue Brees got snubbed in 2011, here's you a key argument that he completely led over Rodgers in first down percentage.

I've been saying this for the past 3 years - when you take away Rodgers' precious, holy TD/INT ratio and actually judge him on every other metric in stats, he falls behind and is a slightly above average QB.

Another comment -



The bolded part is something I've been saying for years too. Rodgers' style of play is counter-productive in how he tries to extend every play, refuses check downs, refuses to take what the defense gives him and goes for hail mary passes and is so scared he's going to throw an interception. Rodgers gets all this praise for his football IQ, but I really don't see it. He relies so much on his arm and athleticism, it's not a question that he's declined ever since he's been figured out and stopped. I think this is the major difference between him in comparison to Manning, Brees and Brady. The other 3 QBs have had longer careers and were able to extend their careers when their skills began declining, all due to reading defenses and having a high football IQ. Brady don't even have much of an arm anymore but still put on a really good show in the AFCCG with reading the Chiefs defense and making key adjustments. We see Brees do this all the time and Manning did it his career. Rodgers on the other hand? He is on record changing McCarthy's play calls over 70% of the time and yet the Packers struggle when he does this.

He broke the record for most passes out of bounds last year all while trying to get that record for lowest INT percentage in NFL history. He got the record but at what cost? The Packers didn't even rank in the top 10 last year in first downs, so many of those drives stalled and were punts cause the man with the ball refused to make better decisions.

Another note - look how far better Favre ranks in first down percentage. Packers fans argue this all the time over who is more frustrating; Rodgers or Favre. With Favre, you know you run the risk of a higher INT percentage, but he was better at moving the chains and driving down the field. Rodgers will protect his stats at the cost of sacrificing drives from big sacks and throwing out of bounds. I don't care about the INTs, I'd trust Favre over him.

Key note on the 2018 stats, even with Brees' decline late in the season, he still led the league in first down percentage.

IMO as I said 3 years ago - Aaron Rodgers is going to go down as the most overrated good QB of the past 20 years. I think a decade from now, people will look back and wonder how come analysts spent years arguing he was just as good and better than Manning, Brees and Brady. He is this generation's Steve Young and he's not even as good as Young was, whom led the league in TDs at 37 years old and kept the 49ers offense in the top 5 every year in first down percentage.