Beastmode

It's almost a given a rookie QB with success will slump in year 2. Only a couple were able to duplicate it in over a decade.

dam1953

Pulling together a pile of high profile talent has rarely resulted in a Championship.

CHA_CHING

I agree with FiveThirtyEight's analysis.

The Browns are a middle of the pack team. I like them to go 9-7 or even 10-6, but Super Bowl contenders? They're not there yet.

On the other hand, as other folks have brought up, they could have some bad chemistry with all the egos on there. Beckham is a punk and a diva, Mayfield's personality rubs some folks the wrong way, and Hunt is a woman beater.

WillSaints81

Yeah,that mystery team could also be a very familiar face most people have written off. When Luck finally stands up to Brady, like Manning did in 05, Brady won't come back from it.

WillSaints81

You mean the Bills? The Bucs are not on the schedule.

Niners and Cards are at home on back to backs after playing the Steelers. Niners are off a bye also, and Cards are at home for a third straight.

You forgot LAR btw and Seattle. Both of those games are off short rest.

K Major

Yeah.

Bill, Bucs .. same thing right ? They both suck.

hitta

In predicting a QBs success, the 2nd year of starting is so much more important than that of the first. I've seen so many "great" QBs with wonderful rookie seasons, only to fizzle out just as quick as they burst into the league. I do think Baker may be a good QB, but to already anoint them as Super Bowl contenders is laughable. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Mahomes took a step back as well.

K Major

+1.

Just about every QB who has eclipsed 5k will have some sort of regression in year 2. In addition, defensive coordinators have a season full of tape on Patrick.

CHA_CHING

100% agree and I have been saying this since the Colts hired Chris Ballard as GM that they are going to be a threat in the AFC. He was the reason K.C. got their act together so fast with building a team under Reid. It took him a year to clean house and get Pagano out, but since then he's nailed their last draft and rebuilt them. The biggest priority was putting an o-line around Luck and not letting him get killed out there. But they've also built up a respectable defense that hasn't gotten much credit.

Luck is not a bust. People on the other Saints forum constantly nitpick his INT percentage, but when you look at all his numbers across the board, he's done pretty darn well with minimum talent around him in a similar way John Elway did on those early Denver teams with Reeves' obsolete Smashmouth offense. INTs and win/loss percentage seem to be the only two QB stats that people focus on heavily these days, but they aren't all that matters. Luck has his bad games and will bounce back the next week. He legitimized himself last year proving that he wasn't a fluke from the early success when Indy was beating up on their awful division.

Not to get off subject, but this is something that grinds my gears with QBs and stats. I'd much rather have the fearless QB who isn't scared of throwing INTs and will take dangerous shots down field. Give me Elway, Favre and Luck any day of the week over guys like Rodgers and Cousins whom will stand there and take the sacks and throw out of bounds to avoid messing up their stat line.

The Colts were the hottest team last year going into the playoffs. If not for some rare chip shot misses from Adam V, they would've entered the 4th quarter 17-24 vs K.C. The Chiefs were doing everything to blow that game with Reid's horrible play calling when they had a big lead. He started going for it on 4th down and if not for a few screw ups, Indy would've took them to the wire and probably beat them.

vpheughan

Could'a, Would'a, Should'a the 3 reasons for EVERY LOST game, DID.... the reason for EVERY WON game.