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this is a discussion within the Pelicans Community Forum; Anthony Davis is already a star. The next step is putting that stardom to use. Davis graced the surface of greatness last year, his second NBA season, averaging 20.8 points , 10.0 rebounds and a league-leading 2.8 blocks per game ...
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10-30-2014, 05:30 AM | #1 |
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Pressure Is on New Orleans Pelicans to Make the Leap Alongside Anthony Davis
Anthony Davis is already a star. The next step is putting that stardom to use.
Davis graced the surface of greatness last year, his second NBA season, averaging 20.8 points, 10.0 rebounds and a league-leading 2.8 blocks per game while making his first (and certainly not last) All-Star appearance. Still, New Orleans struggled all year, finishing 12th in the West and winning just 34 games. Tuesday night, the 21-year-old Davis began his season wowing anyone who was willing to turn off TNT and head over to NBA League Pass for a New Orleans Pelicans-Orlando Magic game. Davis scored 26 while pulling down 17 boards and blocking a career-high-tying nine shots. Now, though, Davis' team, which hasn't been competitive since trading away Chris Paul, needs to catch up to him to avoid the dreaded (and almost-always unwarranted) criticisms that'll be sent Davis' way if he fails to make the playoffs for the first few years of his career. Just ask Kevin Love what that treatment is like. With Davis on the brink of making his second "leap" in as many years, New Orleans general manager Dell Demps set out to get him some help over the summer. The Pelicans acquired Omer Asik, John Salmons and Jimmer Fredette, but still had their fair share of losses. New Orleans saw Brian Roberts, Al-Farouq Aminu, Anthony Morrow and Jason Smith walk to other teams, skimming their bench thinner than Davis' scrawny waistline. Still, the Pelicans stand to improve if only because the acquisition of Asik allows Davis to be Davis. In actuality, the man whom many consider to be the favorite for Defensive Player of the Year hurt his team's defense in some ways a season ago. Davis was overly aggressive at times. Now, with one of the NBA's best rim-protectors behind him, Davis doesn't have to tread the line between free safety and anchoring middle linebacker. He can, in effect, roam the floor, guard multiple guys on single possessions, close out hard, jump passing lanes and—in every way—play to his strengths. While AD is as talented as they come, he was closer to 2010 Serge Ibaka last year than he was to 1963 Bill Russell. He'd block your shot, but sometimes, that would end up being a bad thing. He tended to get block happy, fly around the floor, overhelp and end up prone to leaving the rim uncovered. The presence of Asik masks those flaws, and a year after leading the league in blocks, Davis, the NBA's manchild, could be due for even more swats. It's not just about the blocks, either. Davis isn't the type of Roy Hibbert-style defender who belongs around the rim. He needs to be all over the floor. Look at how far from the hoop he ranges to close out on a three-point shooter, even after blocking a shot, during the Magic game: That's a facet of Davis' play we didn't see last year: instant awareness. A season ago, the block would've happened. The immediate recognition to find Kyle O'Quinn on the three-point line and scurry over in time to defer an almost-open three is new. Part of such an improvement is natural progression. The longer you play in the NBA, the more the game slows down for you and the quicker you're able to make decisions. But you have to imagine there's more to it. Davis feels safe straying from the paint knowing he has a world-class rim-protector in Asik backing him up. Hesitance is gone, and assertiveness is apparent. Nikola Vucevic may end the possession with a made shot, but it's contested. That's how defenses improve. They make sure to contest shots, and Asik is as good as almost anyone when it comes to getting a hand in a shooter's grill. The Asik effect on Davis isn't just about blocking shots, either. Davis is cutting off passing lanes, too, comfortably leaving the paint, knowing that his counterpart is always there to help: It's a different culture in New Orleans with the addition of Asik, not necessarily in the locker room, but on the defensive side. You're not scoring at the rim on a combo of Davis and Asik, and the Pelicans defense is poised to make a jump from 26th in points allowed per possession a season ago. Davis and Asik aren't the only ones who guard effectively, either. Eric Gordon is an underrated, physical defender when healthy. Tyreke Evans has defensive potential when guarding 2s if he works in the right system. Jeff Withey can even give a few quality defensive minutes a night off the bench. In an opening night when Asik and Davis combined for 14 blocks, it was actually the man who casually (and confusingly) goes by "E.J." who had the swat of the evening. Let that play run a little longer and you can see the potential this defense has, even if it was so porous a season ago. Gordon fights around a Vucevic screen to rock Ben Gordon on that stuff, and Davis follows by giving rookie Elfrid Payton his welcome-to-the-NBA moment. The possession may end on a Ryan Anderson blocking foul (which could have easily been a charge), but the takeaway here is the aggression the Pelicans have shown, especially with Davis. On that play alone, Davis guards Tobias Harris in the corner, plays free safety in the middle of the floor, mans Payton at the rim, swats Payton on a second attempt and then heads back out to the perimeter to defend Evan Fournier. Asik isn't even on the floor here, but Davis' defensive aggressiveness is carrying into permanent territory. Don't necessarily let the numbers from last year fool you. At full strength, there's defensive potential in this starting lineup (although Tyreke Evans may have some bumps guarding small forwards), especially if Monty Williams can stagger minutes so that Asik or Davis is almost always on the floor. Still, even if the defense makes a big jump this year, that doesn't guarantee a successful season. Major improvement could still mean New Orleans churns out a middle-of-the-pack defense. The Pels have their issues in other parts of the game, as well. Most off, they have to remain healthy. You could make that criticism of any team, but it's especially true for New Orleans, who has plenty of guys on the roster with injury histories. Gordon has averaged just under 43 games a season over the past four years. Jrue Holiday missed 48 contests last year with a stress fracture in his right tibia. Anderson, one of the absolute best shooters in the league, regardless of position, got into only 22 games last year and has played more than 64 in a single season just once. Even Davis has had his share of injury troubles. The Pelicans can't afford to lose those guys this year, considering they don't have many impact players on the bench after Anderson. Austin Rivers of all people was the second-most-used bench player during the season opener. Fredette-Rivers backcourts look like they're going to be a mainstay even when New Orleans is at full strength. If any perimeter players go down, the team runs into further trouble. Health isn't the only potential flaw holding the Pelicans back from garnering a playoff spot in the brutal Western Conference. There's also the issue of scoring. Such problems can arise when you group three dribble-happy perimeter players to run your offense. Gordon, Evans and Holiday are all similar players—mainly, they enjoy the sensation of repeatedly flicking a basketball toward the ground so that it bounces back up back into their hand. Yes, Gordon, Holiday and especially Evans are overdribblers, and overdribbles tend not to get along with their own species. Last year's New Orleans squad may have finished 13th in points per possession, but its offensive style was particularly ugly, running a heavy amount of unsuccessful isolation. Because of that, the offense was prone to long cold stretches which saw close games get away from them. Monty Williams didn't always have control of the offense a season ago, and he's gained criticism because of that. Williams' offense finished plays with isolation—the second-most of any attack in the league last year, according to Synergy Sports (subscription required). Still, New Orleans had loads of injuries, so it's hard to see exactly what Williams had in mind for this squad. Ultimately, as Grantland's Zach Lowe wrote back in May, Demps may be in more trouble than Williams if this season goes poorly. Folks around the league have been wondering for weeks whether the team would bring back Dell Demps, the GM, for the final year on his deal after a disappointing 2013-14 season. The consensus is growing that Demps is likely safe, though ownership needs to see progress next season — and perhaps a playoff berth in the ultracompetitive West.So, what happens if New Orleans runs a similar attack this year—not all that unlikely considering Williams has been in the Big Easy for four-plus seasons—and yields similar scoring results? The Pels probably wouldn't be a playoff team in the West. Actually, they likely wouldn't even be in the top-nine considering the Phoenix Suns, who finished ninth last season, won 48 games and stand a chance to be even better this year. Let's say the defense vastly improves, the offense stays stagnant, and New Orleans makes a massive jump because of an improvement from Davis, better health and the addition of Asik. That leads to what? 40 wins? 42, maybe? Where do the Pelicans go from there? There isn't much flexibility on this roster going into 2015-16, when Demps' team should have about $57 million on the roster. With Asik entering free agency though, you'd have to imagine the Pelicans will do everything they can to re-sign him—especially if he performs as expected—and thus, New Orleans is set with its current nucleus for the next two years. But what if this core isn't good enough? Considering the difficulty of the West, the Pelicans could theoretically become the would-be third-best team in the Eastern Conference and still miss the playoffs. With Davis vaulting into the Top 10 NBA's Best Players List and possibly top five by the end of the season, how long does he have to wallow in the NBA's non-playoff picture before he becomes the next Kevin Love? Love, now a Cleveland Cavalier, spent the first six seasons of his career rotting away in Minnesota. He never made the playoffs with the Timberwolves. He never even saw the right side of .500. Eventually, the mainstream began to question if Love, one of the league's best rebounders and certainly one of the NBA's two best-shooting big men (along with Dirk Nowitzki), was a top-10 player. (HINT: He was.) But that's what happens when you don't win. You give the public the opportunity to question your worth, even if losing couldn't be further from your fault. Davis is now the NBA's darling, but Blake Griffin fit that description back in his rookie 2010-11 season, and he eventually was taken down by overexposure and a casual fanbase that is near impossible to please. We always have a "Next Great One" who ends up becoming the "Next Great Publicly Criticized Player." It would be sad to see Davis head down that road, and unfortunately, whether he's slapped with that label or not is completely out of his control. If the New Orleans offense remains similarly ineffective, the defense doesn't improve as much as the organization would like and guys like Holiday, Anderson and Gordon end up injured once again, the Pels will struggle to play into April and May. At what point would that start to hurt Davis' reputation? When would people begin to question his basketball heroism? Hopefully, we'll never have to know. Fred Katz averaged almost one point per game in fifth grade but maintains that his per-36-minute numbers were astonishing. Find more of his work at WashingtonPost.com or on ESPN's TrueHoop Network at ClipperBlog.com. Follow him on Twitter at @FredKatz. Unless otherwise noted, all statistics are current as of Oct. 30 and are courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com. Read more New Orleans Pelicans news on BleacherReport.com More... |
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