2021 NFL Draft: New Orleans Saints

Rugby Saint II · 04-14-2021, 02:21 PM

Originally Posted by jeanpierre

Love the way he catches the ball, high-points the ball, snaps the ball to his body, he's got great short area quickness to evade and pick up YAC; he does have suddenness...

Quietly I chuckled with anticipation.....

Boston Saint · 04-15-2021, 10:21 AM

Interesting nugget of information I noticed going through past drafts. The Saints have only drafted a QB as high as the second round ONLY ONCE in their entire history. That’s got to be some kind of record among NFL teams.

AsylumGuido · 04-15-2021, 10:34 AM

Originally Posted by Boston Saint

Interesting nugget of information I noticed going through past drafts. The Saints have only drafted a QB as high as the second round ONLY ONCE in their entire history. That’s got to be some kind of record among NFL teams.

Comparing that to the numbers I posted in another thread that shows the improbability of getting a starting QB. Less than two of three QB's drafted in the first round start half of the games in their career. That percentage drops quickly in later rounds.

An extensive study done in 2015 on all drafts picks (non-kickers) between 2005 and 2014 showed that only 25.5% of all drafted players became starters for at least half of their careers. It also broke it down between rounds taken and position. The success rate (starting) of DL, RB, and WR picked in the first round is only 58%. QB's are only slightly better at 63%.

Here's a nice summary:

Historic Success Chart

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

ChrisXVI · 04-15-2021, 11:48 AM

I think this is one guy we’re all pretty much in total agreement about wanting to draft. Wouldn’t surprise me one bit if we traded up in the second round for him.

Boston Saint likes this.

Rugby Saint II · 04-15-2021, 12:06 PM

Originally Posted by ChrisXVI

https://twitter.com/john_siglerr/sta...11432081338368

I think this is one guy we’re all pretty much in total agreement about wanting to draft. Wouldn’t surprise me one bit if we traded up in the second round for him.

I'd like to see that happen on draft day for the Saints. We need to replenish our secondary. Give me a CB next and I'll be happy.

Boston Saint · 04-15-2021, 12:20 PM

Originally Posted by ChrisXVI

https://twitter.com/john_siglerr/sta...11432081338368

I think this is one guy we’re all pretty much in total agreement about wanting to draft. Wouldn’t surprise me one bit if we traded up in the second round for him.

How about trade the round one pick and move back with two early/mid 2nd round pics?

How about trade 28 to Miami for 36 and 50. That gives the Saints picks 36, 50, and 60.

AsylumGuido · 04-15-2021, 12:35 PM

Originally Posted by Boston Saint

How about trade the round one pick and move back with two early/mid 2nd round pics?

How about trade 28 to Miami for 36 and 50. That gives the Saints picks 36, 50, and 60.

Take a close look at that success chart I posted. The thing about trading back is your chances of drafting an eventual starter shrinks considerably by round as you move back. You can conceivably trade a first rounder back and its resulting picks back cumulatively and end up with a dozen 6th and 7th rounders and most likely have less of a chance that any those twelve players will end up being a starter than what you could have had using that first on a single player.

K Major · 04-15-2021, 12:41 PM

It all starts two weeks from tonight.

4/29/21.

Can't wait.

AsylumGuido · 04-15-2021, 12:54 PM

Originally Posted by K Major

It all starts two weeks from tonight.

4/29/21.

Can't wait.

Maybe we won't have to wait until pick 28.

Boston Saint · 04-15-2021, 01:05 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

Take a close look at that success chart I posted. The thing about trading back is your chances of drafting an eventual starter shrinks considerably by round as you move back. You can conceivably trade a first rounder back and its resulting picks back cumulatively and end up with a dozen 6th and 7th rounders and most likely have less of a chance that any those twelve players will end up being a starter than what you could have had using that first on a single player.

I looked at.

04-14-2021, 02:21 PM	#471
Rugby Saint II Bounty Money $$$ Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: 5800 Airline Dr. Metairie, LA. Posts: 24,052	Re: 2021 NFL Draft: New Orleans Saints Originally Posted by jeanpierre Love the way he catches the ball, high-points the ball, snaps the ball to his body, he's got great short area quickness to evade and pick up YAC; he does have suddenness... Quietly I chuckled with anticipation..... jeanpierre likes this.

04-15-2021, 10:21 AM	#472
Boston Saint 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Nov 2020 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 5,137	Re: 2021 NFL Draft: New Orleans Saints Interesting nugget of information I noticed going through past drafts. The Saints have only drafted a QB as high as the second round ONLY ONCE in their entire history. That’s got to be some kind of record among NFL teams.

04-15-2021, 10:34 AM	#473
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,220	Re: 2021 NFL Draft: New Orleans Saints Originally Posted by Boston Saint Interesting nugget of information I noticed going through past drafts. The Saints have only drafted a QB as high as the second round ONLY ONCE in their entire history. That’s got to be some kind of record among NFL teams. Comparing that to the numbers I posted in another thread that shows the improbability of getting a starting QB. Less than two of three QB's drafted in the first round start half of the games in their career. That percentage drops quickly in later rounds. An extensive study done in 2015 on all drafts picks (non-kickers) between 2005 and 2014 showed that only 25.5% of all drafted players became starters for at least half of their careers. It also broke it down between rounds taken and position. The success rate (starting) of DL, RB, and WR picked in the first round is only 58%. QB's are only slightly better at 63%. Here's a nice summary: Historic Success Chart The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters: 1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%) 2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%) 3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%) 4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%) 5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%) 6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%) 7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%) saintsfan1976 and MarchingOn like this.
	“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill

04-15-2021, 11:48 AM	#474
ChrisXVI 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Aug 2011 Location: Madison, WI Posts: 11,482	Re: 2021 NFL Draft: New Orleans Saints Twitter I think this is one guy we’re all pretty much in total agreement about wanting to draft. Wouldn’t surprise me one bit if we traded up in the second round for him. Boston Saint likes this.

04-15-2021, 12:06 PM	#475
Rugby Saint II Bounty Money $$$ Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: 5800 Airline Dr. Metairie, LA. Posts: 24,052	Re: 2021 NFL Draft: New Orleans Saints Originally Posted by ChrisXVI https://twitter.com/john_siglerr/sta...11432081338368 I think this is one guy we’re all pretty much in total agreement about wanting to draft. Wouldn’t surprise me one bit if we traded up in the second round for him. I'd like to see that happen on draft day for the Saints. We need to replenish our secondary. Give me a CB next and I'll be happy.

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04-15-2021, 12:20 PM	#476
Boston Saint 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Nov 2020 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 5,137	Re: 2021 NFL Draft: New Orleans Saints Originally Posted by ChrisXVI https://twitter.com/john_siglerr/sta...11432081338368 I think this is one guy we’re all pretty much in total agreement about wanting to draft. Wouldn’t surprise me one bit if we traded up in the second round for him. How about trade the round one pick and move back with two early/mid 2nd round pics? How about trade 28 to Miami for 36 and 50. That gives the Saints picks 36, 50, and 60. gosaints1 likes this.

04-15-2021, 12:35 PM	#477
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,220	Re: 2021 NFL Draft: New Orleans Saints Originally Posted by Boston Saint How about trade the round one pick and move back with two early/mid 2nd round pics? How about trade 28 to Miami for 36 and 50. That gives the Saints picks 36, 50, and 60. Take a close look at that success chart I posted. The thing about trading back is your chances of drafting an eventual starter shrinks considerably by round as you move back. You can conceivably trade a first rounder back and its resulting picks back cumulatively and end up with a dozen 6th and 7th rounders and most likely have less of a chance that any those twelve players will end up being a starter than what you could have had using that first on a single player.

04-15-2021, 12:41 PM	#478
K Major Site Donor 2019 Join Date: Jan 2013 Location: Bedford, TX Posts: 24,619 Blog Entries: 3	Re: 2021 NFL Draft: New Orleans Saints It all starts two weeks from tonight. 4/29/21. Can't wait. saintsfan1976 likes this.

04-15-2021, 12:54 PM	#479
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,220	Re: 2021 NFL Draft: New Orleans Saints Originally Posted by K Major It all starts two weeks from tonight. 4/29/21. Can't wait. Maybe we won't have to wait until pick 28.

04-15-2021, 01:05 PM	#480
Boston Saint 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Nov 2020 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 5,137	Re: 2021 NFL Draft: New Orleans Saints Originally Posted by AsylumGuido Take a close look at that success chart I posted. The thing about trading back is your chances of drafting an eventual starter shrinks considerably by round as you move back. You can conceivably trade a first rounder back and its resulting picks back cumulatively and end up with a dozen 6th and 7th rounders and most likely have less of a chance that any those twelve players will end up being a starter than what you could have had using that first on a single player. I looked at.