Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

Good is subjective. QB’s should be the leader of the team, and most often also the locker room leader. So, I’ll agree to the fact that a “good” QB isn’t ideal. That being said, there are many other positions that aren’t as high profile as the QB who play and make an impact, without being the face of the organization.

You build your team through the draft, fill in the holes with free agency. One without the other is useless. Most drafted players play for their respective teams, and are developed by them. Few fail to make the team or fail to play.

The idea that the draft is a crapshoot, outside of hoping the first round QB you picked is going to make it, is nonsense. You can’t buy a locker-room.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...a-locker-room/

Free agency is critical, so is the draft. The salary cap hits you when you focus on free agent veteran acquisitions too heavily. And it’s painful getting out from under that weight.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

Is it, really? I'll give you there's a worthy debate on good vs great - Eli vs Payton as an example. Both had successes. Would you also say Ryan Leaf is also vs Peyton also subjective? I don't think so, but believe what you want.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

Comparing one individual player to another individual player on differing teams isn’t a discussion I was in. Different organizations, different personnel strategies, incoming/outgoing coaches, who they are replacing, injuries, sitting behind a starter forever, etc... WAY too many variables to make comparison’s. For example, let’s take Tom Brady. Had the Saints drafted him at 168, instead of him falling to 199, and us picking M Bulger, would Brady have been developed and as successful as he is today? It’s my belief the Saints would have wasted Brady, quite possibly ruining him forever.

I just believe you draft your team, then develop those players. Veteran free agents carry veteran cap hits on their contracts. If you choose to build a team via free agency because you feel they are a more guaranteed option, you’ll find yourself in cap hell quickly. And in all truthiness, being a veteran free agent is no guarantee either. Rookie contracts? Not so expensive. If you have unlimited monies, aka no salary cap, then by all means, build the entire team as if you’re playing Madden 2021. But, that’s not reality. And even if it were..., you can’t buy locker room synergy and chemistry.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

Sorry, but quite a few others beg to differ. There are dozens more beyond this small smattering.

The NFL Draft is More of a Crapshoot Than an Exact Science
By John Fennelly - 04/26/2017

Philadelphia Eagles: The NFL Draft is a total crapshoot
by Jeffrey Powell 10 months ago

Schneider’s comments reveal what a crapshoot the draft really is
Posted by Mike Florio on April 25, 2018

Crapshoot—The NFL Draft: 1967-2017 Kindle Edition
by David V. Gray (Author)

The 2021 NFL draft is a crapshoot: How investing like Warren Buffett means teams should be aggressive in adding more picks
Bill Barnwell
ESPN Staff Writer

The NFL Draft Is Still a Crapshoot
ALLEN BARRA
APRIL 27, 2012

Study: NFL Teams Have No Idea What They're Doing In The Draft
barryap
Barry Petchesky
9/24/13 4:00PM

Drafting quarterbacks is the NFL's biggest crapshoot
Dave Birkett Detroit Free Press

It gets more hype than ever, but the NFL draft is still a crapshoot
JOE POSNANSKI APR 22, 2010

For Wharton professor Cade Massey, the NFL Draft is a crapshoot
Massey has come to some surprising conclusions about the event’s methodology and processes
By Daniel Rich 10/14/13 6:15pm

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

The reason why I used blackjack as an analogy to the NFL draft is because, just like with the draft, a good player knows the odds and can make educated plays based upon those odds, yet until that next card is turned, or that player actually experiences the NFL, there is no way to be confident in the eventual outcome. That turn card could turn that 11 into a 21 or a 15. Or that first couple of years can reveal a player who excels or one that gets kicked to the curb.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

Yeah, there is too much invested by organizations for it to be a crapshoot.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

As I pointed out in my blackjack analogy, not anyone or everyone has the ability to be a good player. The best players in the world are subject to the unknown. It is the same in drafting rookies. There is only so much you can do to determine the future success of a prospect. No doubt those that get paid to do their best know FAR more than any of us. That cannot be disputed regardless of how some fans feel they are more qualified. ;) But it all still comes down to a great deal of unknowns that are impossible to predetermine. That's where the educated gambles come into play. The professional gambler knows when it is most advantageous to double-down or to split. The same goes for professionals in the draft game when trading up or trading down. In either case the final result is unknown until after the move. The identification of the success or failure simply comes quite a bit quicker in the cards.

There have been far too many "sure thing" prospects that have petered out for the draft to be anything more than a crapshoot, or if you please, a game of blackjack.

Why do some teams seem to draft better? They have a combination of more knowledge and more fortune. That face card turns at times more than that four. But even the very best at the draft craps out on occasions.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

It doesn't matter how much money you throw at it, nobody knows exactly how a 20 year old kid will perform three or four years from now. If they did there would never be a market for free agents.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

Blackjack players that have any amount of success, over time, count cards, it’s a simple mechanic and your odds can easily be manipulated. Quite frequently card counters team up for even better odds. It really is a simple mechanic and even as a beginner, all you have to do is slow the dealer down. In no time you’ll be adjusting the running total in your head, as quickly as the dealer turns over cards. I don’t think there is any mechanic used in drafting that improves your odds that significantly. As far as the “crapshoot” argument goes it doesn’t surprise me that many will use that term as an excuse for poor scouting, poor coaching, poor development..., etc.

There are WAY too many variables in drafting to declare individual players inside each draft a success/failure to label the draft nothing more than “luck” or a “crapshoot”. The team drafting, that team’s active roster, team needs, player demands, injuries, environment... All of those and many many many more come into play when determining if a draft prospect is considered successful or not.

Why even have a scouting team? It’s luck, right? Why have position coaches, college players will either have it or not, right? We’ll just draft who Kiper has rated as best player available next and hope for the best. Of course those ppl are going to call it a “crapshoot”. They have guessed on some folks and failed. Like the Saints did with 2 1sts and a 5th..., then resort back to “it’s just luck, don’t blame us” as an excuse.

It’s similar to saying marriage is a “crapshoot”, right? Same thought process, we’re dealing with massive individual, and organizational (family, religion, work, etc...) dynamics. Controlling that to a 100% success rate is a fools game, not possible. You do the best you can, we all do, but ultimately the statistics show roughly a 55/45 success/fail rate, aka divorce rate, give or take, depending on who you ask. Successful draft picks are much more ambiguous wrt a very simple success/fail, binary evaluation. When it comes to evaluating draft picks I use an “on an nfl roster/not on an nfl roster” to do that evaluation without having years of history to evaluate. With years of history, it can be perspective based also. Lets take our own Drew Brees draft pick, from a San Diegan perspective his draft was one of failure, from a New Orleanian’s perspective, it’s 100% opposite. That dynamic was almost wholly influenced by injury, of course, but I don’t believe Drew Brees has a SB ring on his mantle right now without CSP and the Saints. If Tom Brady were drafted by the Saints at 168, instead of his team at 199, do you honestly think that Tom Terrific would be as successful? Not even close, imho he wouldn’t even be a household name.

If you view the draft as a crapshoot then the same can be said of veteran free agents. They don’t always work out either.

In 2020, veteran free agent failures were ubiquitous, folks like:

Mario Addison
Dante Fowler
Vic Beasely
Randall Cobb
Jimmy Graham
Austin Hooper
Teddy Bridgewater
Jadaveon Clowney

Just to name a few off the top of my head. The difference being cost and cap hits. Veteran Free Agents are expensive, and carry veteran free agent cap hits. And the change from NFL team to NFL team is equally as much an unknown as whether a college player makes the transition to the next level. The draft is not as punishing when you do miss. And everybody misses, both in drafting, and in free agency. But, I just think it’s cynical to label either a “crapshoot”.

Sorry for the novel folks, if anyone has made it this far..., lol, I’ll buy you a beer of your choice for your patience and time, should we ever cross paths.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

There so much illogic here it’s not even funny. Because not all guys pan out “exactly” as expected it’s a crapshoot? That’s like saying two people go out fishing. One is the father who has been an experienced fisherman all his life, the other his young son out fishing for his first time. The father gives his son a cane pole with a bobber. The father uses his normal rod and reel set-up. Now either could catch a fish in this “crapshoot”, But Would you bet on the experienced father or the untrained son eventually catching more and bigger fish that day? How about the next day? Preparation does not always guarantee success, but not preparing almost guarantees failure.

Free agency didn’t start because the draft was a crapshoot. It started because players didn’t like being under the control of one team for their entire careers and players couldn’t come to agreement with owners on what their value was worth. They used to have 12 rounds of draft and no FA and rosters were filled out fine. Fact is There is no way in hell that if the draft was a crapshoot teams would spend the millions they do on evaluation of it. At some point team A started to really study the draft and do well with it. Team B noticed and said “Hey, team A goes out and looks at these guys and they are doing well with their picks. Maybe we should try that!”. Then team C caught on etc.

The fact that Brady was a late round pick doesn’t refute this either.
Maybe NE new he was going to be that good all along but realized no one else did so they could afford to wait on him. They could have maybe never picked him and got him as an UDFA if he was a crapshoot. But apparently he was on their radar enough to have them not take that chance. Obviously because of their evaluation of him.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

Look at it this way Guido. The NFL draft is an extension of what college programs due to go out and evaluate players. The big dogs in the power conferences, plus Norte Dame, go out and evaluate and recruit (ie “draft”) the best evaluated high schoolers they can. They hit on some, miss on others. They base their recruiting thoughts on what they see of film tapes and interviews. So, basically you are saying Alabama, Clemson, LSU, Ohio State, etc have a crapshoot to base their success on and not evaluation? I disagree.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

First of all the Patriots admittedly didn't even discuss Brady until the fourth round according to Charlie Weis. He said they took a flyer on Brady with no real expectations. They got lucky.

Once again, the draft has been labeled as a crapshoot for decades. That's not something I coined. In fact, I likened it more as the game of blackjack where a knowledgeable gambler is more likely to come out better than someone less skilled. But because of the unknowns any individual pick has a chance to turn out well or be a total bust. Higher round picks usually are those players with less unknowns and logically rate out as being more successful in the long run.

Going back to your fishing example, while the experienced father with the good gear should catch more fish than the kid with the cane pole over time, he is still likely have a bad day here or there because he doesn't know beyond all doubt where the fish are and what they want to bite. The kid may luckily drop his line right in front of the nose of a hungry lunker.

Nobody labeling the draft as a crapshoot is saying that there is no skill whatsoever involved. That would be illogical. However, it is also illogical to assume that there are no unknowns factored into the drafting process. There exists a certain degree of gamble with every selection. This is the point being made by those that came up with the label of a crapshoot. I agree that craps is far less skill related than is blackjack, but both, along with the NFL draft, are in their own ways a gamble.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

There are no draft busts, and as long as a player plays on a team they are considered a success? We're not allowed to compare quality of draft picks because - organizations? The draft is easy that's why some teams have avoided the playoffs for years? Apparently a top rated draft pick can't fail even though we see them fail all the time?

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

I guess it’s semantics then. What one means by the rules of craps or what one means by the rules of blackjack. Both have their odds on the flip of a card or the roll of a dice. But I will say again this goes along with my earlier statement of doubting that 35% of drafted players make rosters. You casually changed the focus from drafted to rookie players to support that number. But when you say it doesn’t matter how much money you throw at it are you seriously saying that the amount of investigation (money) one does on draft choice not relevant? Is there a spectrum on how informed a person is there? Could my 7 year old nephew make as good a choice as Loomis since it’s nothing more than a blackjack hand?

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

“ First of all the Patriots admittedly didn't even discuss Brady until the fourth round according to Charlie Weis. He said they took a flyer on Brady with no real expectations. They got lucky.”

No, they didn’t get lucky. Their research told them Brady was the best pick at the time. Research.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

You are "all or nothing" in your perspective. I am not. Could your 7 year old nephew make as good a choice as Loomis? Only if he had as many years of experience and all the the resources available. I haven't disputed that. However, is there any chance that Loomis, or any other person involved in making the draft selections, could draft a player that turns out to be a bust? Of course there is because of the inherent unknowns that are always in play. Is it a gamble? Of course. Is the gamble along the same odds as winning blackjack? Most likely not, but a gamble nonetheless.

As for the 35% that you can't seem to drop, I admitted that the implication of that percentage was misconveyed by others and with some research of my own actually included UDFA's. Pages ago I agreed that that number was totally invalid as far as draftees are concerned.

By labeling the draft as a "crapshoot" the pundits are simply saying there is a gamble connected with every selection. They also point out is a correlation between the round of the selection and the actual eventual success of that player, but there remains the possibility that failure may be the result regardless of the round.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

Weis was in those draft meetings. He said that they never expected the success that Brady would eventually discover. In his own words he said "we were lucky". Yes they did research. Their research told them they had nothing to lose by taking a flyer on this kid from Michigan. They've taken the same type of flyer before and since without anywhere near the same success.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

Fair enough. But as a poker player myself and a knowledgeable craps shooter I can say that having an idea of what you are doing makes a difference. And to me, draft research is like looking for player tells. My 7 year old nephew knows what to do when he sees pocket aces vs 7-2 off suit. But deciding what to do with suited connectors depends on your position depends on looking at other players tendencies.

Black Jack or Craps has no outside influence of how someone else bets. You either get the card or roll or you do not. Poker makes you read how other players react under pressure bets. This is exactly what the draft evaluators try to do by your black jack comparison. There is more unknown in Omaha or Hold’em than craps of blackjack. There is where the draft research on if a player has a tell or always plays A certain hand (my personal fault) comes in handy. And this is where your idea of it not mattering how much money (i.e. research, evaluation, interviews,) you throw at it falls apart. It sure as heck does.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

Anyway, just my thoughts and respect yours Guido! 👍

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

Absolutely a draft pick can fail, just look at 2 1sts and a 5th. By the same token, so can veteran free agent acquisitions. And of course we can ALL have disparate views on the subject. But, it is extremely ironic that the subjectivity of what defines “fail” is subjective and is on display with the poll that started this thread, just look at those results! Whether it’s fair or not to define fail/pass on a person still being developed, or has been held back by injuries, or wasn’t started at his team, etc... is up for debate.

And THAT is exactly my point.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

At no point did I ever say there was no uncertainty in the draft. I said that the 35% of players drafted don’t make their roster was a false statement. And it is/was. No doubt about it some draft picks don’t pan out for their team. No doubt about it that some veteran free agent acquisitions don’t pan out for their team also.

I’ve been clear, unambiguous. The draft is critical to building a team, so is free agent acquisition. Neither are more “successful” than the other. There is a gamble in everything related to football, so does that mean playcalling is a “crapshoot”? I would argue No. But to each their own.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

At this point I do not see Davenport as a failure at all. There nothing that tells me that he can't go out and ring up 15 sacks under the right conditions. At its very best the draft is a very inexact science. The very best have bad misses. The very worst have huge successes.

I agree with you that building through the draft is very critical. But with all of the unknowns nobody knows for certain when or if it will pay off.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

Again with the 35%. Once again I agreed to that point with you pages ago. That number was misrepresented from what I had read ages ago. But, you have to agree that a player with years of NFL snaps is much easier to gauge than a player who has never taken a professional snap in his career. It is completely logical to expect many times more missteps in the selection of the latter, is it not?

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

Nobody knows if a veteran free agent is going to “pay off” either.

The fact that we’re even discussing failure/success on a multiple first round draft pick choice from several years ago is EXACTLY my point wrt drafting. It’s impossible to grade them so quickly. Why? Because it’s so subjective, most ppl, including coaches and football executives, will “homer up” for the players they like, create excuses for them, aka injuries, scheme, coaching, playcalling..., heck I’ve even seen some folks use “ bad luck” as an excuse, lol. Could Davenport go out and rack up 15 sacks? Yes, but if so, then why he hasn’t he done it already? Hendrickson was just tied with A.Donald for 2d in the league in sacks with 13.5. Which, btw, is more than Davenport’s career sacks, combined.

Bottom line..., he could..., but he hasn’t..., and he’s had the chances. If we evaluate one player with excuses and reasons as to why they haven’t lived up to their draft selection, then we should be open-minded enough to do it for all.

I’ve said my piece on this AG, I understand your pov, I just disagree with it. Most things here are subjective, just opinions. Percentages though..., not so much.

BikeWeek begins today and I’m just waiting on my girl to get home from work! Chrome is polished, lol! I’ll be away for a while, enjoy your weekend.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

We'll be heading out of town ourselves up into Arkansas on Saturday morning to do some picking. Our stock is getting low.

For those of you that like cool vintage stuff check out our store at https://www.ebay.com/usr/memoriesfound.