Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

No passing grade there , seems like we really payed attention to the failure and got much better the last couple years.


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Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

A lot of F's on that report.

Good to see Will Clapp make the most of an opportunity.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

It just shows how much of a crap shoot the draft actually is. It is, of course, a necessary means to keep a roster going, but there is always that very large degree of uncertainty. A team can go from an incredible four starters in one draft year to none the next, and then back up to a couple the following year.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

I'm probably one of Ireland's biggest fans but 2017 was his best year. He's been kind of hit or miss since then. We absolutely have to stop drafting these players just to move them to a new position. It does not work! Sometimes we are too creative and out think ourselves.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

SP doeant think so, if he did he would load up on picks

BTW how did the one and done taste? Jummy

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

This isn't high school math where you average grades to get a final score with F's dragging down the over all average. Just looking at 2018 as presented 3 out of 7 draft picks contributed to our recent successes, that's 43% success by my HS math. Isn't the league average in the 30's?

We've won our division 4 years in a row, not a lot of holes to fill.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

Boston Scott turned out good too, for the Feagles once he got cut. The rest... meh!

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

https://media.giphy.com/media/6CYXe7Hf8FZyU/giphy.gif

It's around 35% that end up making rosters. As you pointed out, the better the returning roster the more difficult it is for an incoming rookie to make that roster. For many that ends up being their only shot.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

That's good info to have. Thanks for sharing.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

Where did you get that 35% number from? Is that descriptive of the starting 11 on each side of the ball? Top 51? Practice squad? Year to Year? Seriously, how did you arrive at that percentage?

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

I have a hard time believing only 35 percent of guys drafted make rosters. There are 224 picks a year (a few extra for compensation picks). 35 percent of that is just over 78 guys, so let’s round to 80. I easily could be mistaken, but I would think more than 80 guys a draft class make a roster. That doesn’t even get you through round 3.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

It's a figure that has been given many times on the success of draft choices. I was confirming what SaintGnome was saying. He said the number was in the 30's. I've heard and read the same. I didn't calculate it on my own. To be honest, that may include undrafted free agents.

I have also heard it the other way around where 65% never have what is considered a successful career.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

It probably includes UDFA's.

I know profootballreference.com had a metric that measured success of actual draft choices called "draft value" or something like that. Here's some numbers from a 20 year study ending in 2017.

10.5% average
12.3% good
6.8% great
1% legendary

That leaves 69.4% that were rated below that.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

There were at least 409 UFDA's last year. Combined with draft picks it would come out to around 650. 35% of that would be around 227, or a little over seven per team. Last year 246 rookies made NFL week one rosters.

That would make it 38% of rookies that were on 90 man rosters made it to the week one roster in 2020.

Here's an interesting chart. Only 34 UFDA's made rosters in 2020, way down from 78 UFDA's in 2013.

https://operations.nfl.com/media/446...=max&width=995

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

We own the UDFA market. New Orleans is where people can make a name for themselves and Payton picks the player for the roster because of the fit not their draft position. The league knows that and New Orleans is a desired location.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

The league likes to claim that the average players career is 3.3 years. At 1700 players (32 x 53) that means the league must import 515 players a year to maintain stability. So, somehow those numbers don’t add up. If we go with the 650 mentioned earlier, then 515/650 sure isn’t 35 percent. So either the claim of a 3.3 career average is wrong, or a lot more than 35% of rookies make the league.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

It would have to be the average length of a career, because it is absolutely verifiable the number of rookies drafted and signed as UDFA's every year and also make the opening day roster. However, what isn't included is the number of rookies that are picked up during the season. Practice squads are continuously evolving all season long.

Another possible factor is that a rookie signed to a 90 man roster and cut and never resigned has a career length of zero which is factored into the overall number. With that in mind an average career of 3.3 years makes perfect sense. If only 246 of 650 signed rookies made the week one roster in 2020 it means that 404 2020 rookies potentially had careers of zero years.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

So you see my point about the numbers being...flexible depending on the parameters set?

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

Yes. Both the 3.3 year average career and the 35% of rookies making the roster are defendable based upon those set parameters. It just goes to show the importance of context.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

O, you missed the point. You went from 35% of drafted players to 35% of “rookies” which you loosely defined

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

The draft is completely separated from the free agency and undrafted folks. What we’re talking about right now is the success of the actual NFL draft. Actually drafting folks with selections through rounds in the draft. Debating the question of how important it is to have draft picks, during the draft, not diluted by the sheer number of players evaluated as UDFA. And OVERWHELMINGLY, those players, that are selected via the draft, are on rosters. Let’s look at the 2019 draft:

254 players were selected in the draft, 213 of them played in a game that season. That’s 83.85%, if my division is good enough. In rounds 1-3, only 1 player didn’t play due to a non-injury designation. That player was Jacha Polite, selected by the Jets at 68 overall who was cut in preseason, but was immediately signed by the Rams and placed on their practice squad. In rounds 4-5, again only one player failed to make an active roster, Clayton Thorson, selected by the Eagles didn’t make the active roster, spending the year on their practice squad. Of the 41 6th round picks, only 4 didn’t make their active roster, two of those being signed to their practice squads. 7th round was only 11 players not making a roster.

2020 is no different, check it out yourself:

https://www.pro-football-reference.c...2020/draft.htm

OVERWHELMINGLY, drafted rookies made their respective rosters and if drafted in rounds 1-5, played on their respective rosters at some point in that year.

So, the idea that only <insert arbitrary percentage here> of draftees don’t make their roster is just complete nonsense. And the actual facts dictate otherwise.

In rounds 1-5, the vast majority of draft choices make their team AND contribute on the field, at some point that year, if nothing more other than depth and giving a breather to the starting 11’s. That depth is critical!

“Average”, “Good”, “Great” and “Legendary” are subjective statements, and mean absolutely nothing to the fundamental statistics. And the fundamental statistics clearly indicate that drafted players make their rosters, and play during that year.

And that is exactly why the draft is so critical to be a part of, addressing team weaknesses and getting them filled.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

UDFA are unimportant to the argument wrt whether draft choices contribute, or don’t, and whether they actually make their rosters. Why you brought UDFA’s into the discussion only proves that you’re trying to massage, even create, numbers to support your belief.

Stay on topic, let’s discuss how important the draft actually is. Not the entire world that isn’t inclusive of the actual NFL draft.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

No, I didn't miss your point. I researched to try to better understand that 35% number that I have seen and read many times over and reasoned out that the 35% pertained to draftees AND undrafted free agents. If you look back I did mention that the percentage may include UDFA's in my initial post. I also agree that the context is important.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

That 3.3 statistic is faulty, it comes from malformed logic by a geek at WSJ, and CNNSI picked up on it and declared it dogma.

Here:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/st...etting-shorter

Regardless, once again, years until retirement is unimportant to the discussion over drafted rookies making a roster.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

We are discussing the actual draft, and why it is critical to actually have draft choices and not trade them away. UDFA does not enter that equation. At All.

Edit: Formatting error

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

I agree with almost all of that. Addressing weaknesses via the draft is critical. It is more critical for teams with more holes to be filled. Teams with deeper rosters and fewer holes to fill in my opinion are better served to attempt to get higher draft capital rather than more lower round picks that are unlikely to make their final roster. Quality over quantity. The numbers given prove that higher round picks are far more likely to contribute and at a higher level. There are always exceptions in both directions. A few late rounders contribute greatly and some first rounders are total busts.

Another way to fill those holes is with proven commodities via free agency. Look at what Tampa Bay did. They supplemented starting lineups on both sides of the ball with key FA's and other veterans that earned them the Super Bowl. Is it sustainable? No. Probably not, but you yourself have argued the importance of winning it all over sustained "goodnees".

And if you look back you'll see that the 35% number that I mentioned was discovered to be in another context to which I readily admitted.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

I don’t view that number in context though. It’s very simple, statistically, the overwhelmingly vast majority of drafted players make their rosters, and play.

And THAT is why the draft is so, so critical to a team’s future. And so necessary, unless you want to be in cap hell forever. Draft them..., develop them.

Regardless, I’ve been clear, and still believe, that winning it all IS the ultimate goal. Sacrificing multiple years of the future for one year winning it all presupposes that you’re going to win it all. Tampa was successful in that endeavor, other’s have failed, including us. To be clear, you know that I’m a believer in both Watson and also Wilson as being much better than DB#9 currently. Would I sacrifice three years worth of no high round draft choices, effectively, for either of them? Nope, and it’s why I believe we can’t afford either. Watson’s 2021 cap hit is smaller than Taysom Hill’s! And Wilson’s cap hit can easily be managed also. But the sheer volume of players and picks that would be required would be destructive, imho.

You don’t throw the baby out with the bath water.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

Guido, you are shifting the goal posts to suit your argument. In post # 4 you mention what a crapshoot the draft is. Then you switch to UDFA later in the thread to support your point when you are shown wrong. Have the character to at least stick to a point. I know you have said you are proud of being an a-hole, but don’t flaunt it.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

It wasn’t just veterans. It’s my belief the largest plays in favor of the Bucs came from drafted players, actually one specific year’s draft. 2019

Drew Brees first interception was intercepted by Sean-Murphy Bunting.
Round 2, selection 39 overall. 2019 NFL draft.

Drew Brees second interception was intercepted by Devin White.
Round 1, selection 5 overall. 2019 NFL draft

Drew Brees third interception was intercepted by Mike Edwards.
Round 3, selection 99 overall. 2019 NFL draft.

A good argument could be made that the Bucs 2019 NFL draft changed the outcome of the game vs the Saints significantly more than Tom Brady, or any other free agent acquisitions did. Brady was largely contained. Those interceptions were the difference maker in a ten point game.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

By that logic, Harris getting hurt after 2 big returns and Cook fumbling in Bucs territory in the third quarter while up by 7 were significantly more important than Tampa’s D.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

The draft IS a crap shoot. Just because drafted players make the initial roster doesn't mean that they are going to be assured of being a success. Note the title of this thread "Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in". That just shows what a crapshoot it actually is when you have to give it years before being able to judge the success.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

Injuries will always be a factor. Tom Brady was playing hurt also, along with almost everyone else still alive in the playoffs. And yes, Cooks fumble was HUGE.

That being said, after the fumble, and subsequent TB touchdown, the score was 20-20, tie game. What were the results of our next three offensive possessions?

5 plays, 12 yards, Punt

5 plays, 13 yards, Int

4 plays, 10 yards, Int.

Giving the defense extremely short fields to defend, while not being able to move the ball offensively at all, is not a formula for winning football in the 4th quarter of a playoff game.

Just can’t do it.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

As another example let's look at a team we are both familiar with ... the New Orleans Saints. The 2009 team that went all the way was led by these starters ... Drew Brees, Jeremy Shockey, David Thomas, Jonathon Goodwin, Scott Fujita, Jonathon Vilma, Scott Shanle, Jabari Greer, Darren Sharper, and Remi Ayodele none of whom were drafted by the Saints. And don't forget Heath Evans and Mike Bell, while not starters like the others they were still important contributors.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

Once again, you’re cherry picking players. I’ve never said free agents were unimportant, they clearly are. I just say the draft is EQUALLY as important. So, 2009, let’s look at that roster from the other side:

Carl Nicks, drafted by the Saints 2008. Starting LG
Jermon Bushrod, drafted by the Saints 2007. Starting LT
Jahri Evans, drafted by the Saints 2006. Starting RG
Jon Stinchcomb, drafted by the Saints 2003. Starting RT
Reggie Bush, drafted by the Saints 2006. Staring RB
M. Colston, drafted by the Saints 2006. Starting WR1
D. Henderson, drafted by the Saint 2004. Starting WR2

And let’s not forget Tracy Porter, drafted by the Saints 2008, starting RCB. His int’s were critical. Heck, that was Malcolm Jenkins rookie year, drafted by the Saints in 2009, he only played in six games but he had an int and other stats, he contributed.

The draft is equally as critical as signing free agents are. And that 2009 team wasn’t wholly built on free agents. Draft..., then Develop; it’s equally as critical as finding veteran free agents.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

So, on that 2009 squad there were seven offensive starters drafted over the seven years from 2003 through 2009. One per year (on average) on that side of the ball.

What's the defensive side look like?

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

I've never said that the draft isn't important. You can hit a jackpot here or there just like any other game of chance. The return is very uncertain.

Using the same sort of analogies the draft is in fact just like blackjack. You know the odds and play them. The rewards are probably very similar in nature.

Free agency, however, is more like investing in 401-K's or McDonald's stock. The returns are far more predictive because of proven performance histories.

You can play both, but at what ratio?

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

The draft is not a crapshoot, it’s nothing like blackjack. That mentality completely invalidates coaching and the entire evaluation processes. If it’s all luck, which it isn’t, then why have coaches? Why have scouting teams? Just roll with what happens, right, it’s all luck, right? No need to develop players bc my binary belief is they are either good or bad, on day one, right?

It’s not like that at all. In any way, shape or form.

Veteran players come with veteran player costs, and the salary cap isn’t unlimited. There is a ceiling, one in which we are struggling to meet. And one in which veteran free agents will have to be cut.

Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire
 

A good draft pick isn't just someone who get's signed by the team and plays in games for his drafting team. By that definition Danny Wuerfell was a good pick and that noodle arm was a complete waste. Good drafts mean the drafted player played well for us, made meaningful contributions. If you sign and start your entire draft, and it's a crappy team that's not a good draft.