SmashMouth

The Deep QB Draft

With five (six?) college quarterbacks set to be solid first-round candidates on April 29, I asked five people who’ve studied the tape on the class how they’d rank the best passers. Lots of similarities—except, as I mentioned, from Chris Simms.

Chris Simms, NBC, Former NFL QB

1. Zach Wilson, Brigham Young. Best pure thrower in the draft, most explosive arm in the draft. Has Mahomes/Rodgers magician type of traits. I think he’s more pro-ready than Trevor Lawrence.

2. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson. Big, strong-armed, and played in a lot of big-time games. Still untapped potential. Throwing is not as consistent as Wilson or Mac Jones, but has great tools.

3. Mac Jones, Alabama. A machine. Best processor of information I’ve seen this year—the way Joe Burrow was. Throws a perfect spiral that hits the bullseye almost every throw. The way Alabama called plays, you could tell they trusted him more than Tua.

4. Kellen Mond, Texas A&M. Way under the radar. Don’t know why. Third-purest thrower, behind Wilson and Jones. When pocket’s collapsing, can still throw a perfect 20-yard out. I think he’s a first-round talent. After my rankings came out, I had people in NFL text me, “Damn you. Wish you hadn’t brought his name up in the conversation.” Some teams love him.

5. Justin Fields, Ohio State. An Adonis. Built like Cam Newton. Great runner. Some inconsistencies in his throwing—mechanics and accuracy. Too many times when the mechanics lead to throws that aren’t effective.

6. Trey Lance, North Dakota State. I like his throwing and mechanics more than Fields. Wideout-type speed, really strong arm. But there’s a lack of experience, and often looks at one guy and makes a throw. Probably needs to sit for a year. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him last till the second round.

Dan Orlovsky, ESPN, Former NFL QB

1. Lawrence. Elite fundamentals, elite talent. Untapped potential because of subpar scheme in college. Most consistent high level of play—we take it for granted.

2. Wilson. Omar Vizquel hands at QB. Very natural thrower of the football with the most “holy cow” throws in this draft. Play every snap with a belief there’s a big play out there somewhere on the field.

3. Fields. Physical talent is off the charts. Throws very well on the run. Will have to develop throwing to covered guys. Covered in college is often times open in NFL. Needs to be less “deliberate.”

4. Jones. Most impressive tape of any guy. Makes me say “so well done” the most. Perfect case of traits versus tape. Isn’t fast, but plays incredibly fast. I will know draft night if he’s going to be good (most dependent on where he goes).

5. Lance. Reminds me some of Dak Prescott. As good a deep ball thrower as anyone in the draft. Confidence in decisions. He’s an oxymoron—has a calm restlessness style of play.

Mike Renner, Pro Football Focus

1. Lawrence. He doesn’t have weaknesses. Not a Josh Allen arm, not Joe Burrow-accurate. But he’s NFL-ready. Very reminiscent of Andrew Luck. Can be a top-12 NFL quarterback in the NFL as a rookie.

2. Wilson. How much do you love big, highlight-reel impressive throws on every tape? Throws on the move, downfield, from different arm angles. Was not under pressure much. Didn’t play top competition.

3. Fields. Very accurate. For his career, the most accurate quarterback we’ve ever charted. His average depth of target is two yards farther than [ex-Buckeye] Dwayne Haskins. Plus, a legit weapon as a runner.

4. Lance. Probably the most impressive physical skill set of any QB in the draft. Probably the strongest arm, and he’s an excellent runner. Accuracy isn’t what the others have, but you fall in love with what he could be.

5. Jones. Doesn’t have the arm strength or mobility of the others. Might not make the special throws. But he’s accurate, with a very quick release, operated a good offense at a high level of a good offense. Outplayed Tua.

Greg Cosell, Analyst, “NFL Matchup” show

1. Lawrence. What consistently stood out was how precisely accurate he was on intermediate and deep throws. Bring the designed QB run game to an offense. Has an aggressive, turn-it-loose throwing mentality. Will be a day one NFL starter.

2. Wilson. His 2020 tape shows a QB whose game was built on pocket efficiency and off-schedule movement. My sense is he’s a combination of structured system efficiency with precise ball location and second-reaction improvisation.

Cosell has not ranked the order of Fields, Lance and Jones. Fields has a compact delivery and plus arm strength, Cosell said, but “did not show a natural feel for timing and anticipation—needed to see it before turning it loose.” Lance is “the most intriguing QB prospect” this year with great traits and a live arm; “it would not surprise me if Lance was a very good NFL QB three years down the road once he gains more experience and coaching.” Jones, Cosell said, is experienced with NFL route concepts and RPO, but he was concerned about Jones’ ability “to play outside of structure and make off-schedule plays.”

One more note from Cosell: “Jones is the most fascinating prospect. Almost every coach you talk to says second-reaction movement is almost essential for NFL quarterbacks now. Yet Jones has none and is not a good athlete. It will be interesting.”

Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network Draft Analyst

1. Lawrence. Such a unique package. When you have that size and athletic ability, and he’s shown the ability to make plays outside the system too. Played against a high level for a long period.

2. Wilson. You’re getting pushback from a lot of folks who maybe didn’t watch as much of him. But there’s a lot of support for Zach around the league. He played the best this season, but there’s a difference between playing the best and being the best quarterback. If he hadn’t had that shoulder surgery [labrum surgery in 2019], I might be having some of Chris [Simms’] courage, putting Zach number one.

3. Lance. Lance and Fields are very close. Both physical, strong, aggressive, tough demeanor. It comes down to decision-making. Lance protects the football, has poise and doesn’t put the ball in harm’s way. Trusts what he sees. Is he ready right now? It’s more of a long-term play. I believe in the kid.

4. Fields. A little more accurate and consistent, but at times he got a little reckless with the ball. That bothered me. At times, he holds the ball too long. You can speed up your clock, which he needs to do.

5. Jones. Because his athletic tools are limited, it puts pressure on the organization to build up the rest of the roster. You’ve got to have a good offensive line in front of him.

Peter King



It's Trey lance or Mac Jones this year, IMHO, if the Saints even get a chance.

st thomas

This draft for the saints is more important than ever IMO . We have to hit and hit hard , cuts to come will let u no why


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K Major

Kellen Mond ?

Didn't expect him in the top 5 of NFL QB prospects.

papz

I have no idea what to think of in regards to Mac Jones. Alabama has a pretty poor history of producing pro quarterbacks. They work with so much talent over there that it makes their QB prospects extremely hard to evaluate.

Boston Saint

I would not want them to take Jones. JMO.

Boston Saint

Question...we are still waiting for Gotohell to take away another pick for Kamara’s violations of “health” protocols, right? So, the Saints will likely have at least one less pick than scheduled as I understand things. Am I wrong (I hope so)?

neugey

This draft is deeper than just the ordained 5-6 QB's. There are other sleeper QB's out there (particularly Ian Book) and I have a feeling at least a few of those sleepers will hit and be solid NFL QB's.

K Major

Knowing Roger G, they'll take away our 3rd rounder we got for 2 Glove Teddy .

Let's see if anything happens to Pittsburgh, Broncos or Ravens for a similar Covid violation.

AsylumGuido

Do you seriously think there are six or seven starting quality QB's in the draft? Historically there are seldom more than three or four that ever become full-time starters. Usually less than that. Of those three or four only one or two become what could be called "franchise QB's". Sure, there was the greatest draft class ever in 1983 with Marino, Elway, Kelly, and O'Brien. You can even throw in Tony Eason who started his share of games, but that an extremely rare year.

Next was probably 2004 with Rivers, Big Ben, and Eli. Matt Schaub would be the only other notable starter.

2005 may be the most starters with Rodgers, Alex Smith, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Derek Anderson, Matt Cassell, Kyle Orton, and Jason Campbell. All spent time as regular starters, but only one or two were franchise quality in my book.

You probably have to go back to 1971 for the most impactful class with Ken Anderson, Jim Plunkett, Archie, Theismann, Lynn Dickey, and Dan Pastorini.

When Peyton was selected in 1998 the other starters were Matt Hasselbeck, Brian (not Bob) Griese, Charlie Batch, and Ryan Leaf.

This just puts things in perspective. Finding a true franchise QB can take decades. Even coming across what could be considered a quality starter is still very uncommon. It's not even that often that a good journeyman QB like Fitzpatrick comes around.

“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill

Rugby Saint II

Godhell will make a statement and take a third round just to get his points across that this will not be tolerated by the Saints. Everyone else gets off Scott free. Hell, Goodell may give one of the offending teams our draft pick.