Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

The value of earlier vs later round picks needs to be taken in the context of the value of present year vs future year picks. You can often trade this years 3rd rounder for a 2nd rounder next year, or trade a late 1st round pick this year for a pick that could be #1 overall for all you know next year. So if you don't have room on your roster for all your draft picks, a reasonable strategy is to trade those picks for higher picks the next year. If you don't think you can find a good player in the 4th round, then instead of trading this years 4th and 5th rounders and next years 3rd rounder to move back into the 3rd round this year, trade this years 4th rounder for a 3rd rounder next year, and have two 3rd rounders next year instead of none. If you keep doing this and stockpiling picks, eventually you may have to trade up, but you won't have to mortgage the future to do it. I don't care that much whether we trade up or down. What I care is that we are lenders not borrowers. Taking out a cash advance on the credit card and paying the bank double digit interest is not a winner move. If we don't value late round picks despite all the history of Evans, Nicks, Colston, and guys like Tom Brady, fine, trade them away. But trade them for higher picks next year.

How awesome would it be if we set a goal: trade a 7th round pick next year for a 6th round pick in 2023, trade the 6th round pick in 2023 for a 5th round pick in 2024, trade the 5th round pick in 2024 for a 4th round pick in 2025, trade the 4th round pick in 2025 for a 3rd round pick in 2026, trade the 3rd round pick in 2026 for a 2nd round pick in 2027, trade the 2nd round pick in 2027 for a 1st round pick in 2028 from a playoff team likely to pick late in the round, trade the late 1st round pick in 2028 for a 1st round pick in 2029 from a losing team desperate to save its GM's job. If that pick in 2029 is early in the round, take an elite player, if not trade it again for a 1st round pick from a desperate team. The 2022 7th round pick could be our elite franchise QB early 1st round pick in 2029-2030. No reason it can't work. All we have to do is be the lender not the debtor. Rich dad poor dad. Live debt free. Win.

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

Whew, alright, let's do it this way...

So would y'all agree these are the most successful picks in the respective draft classes of the Sean Payton/Mickey Loomis tenure?


2006 Draft

• RB Reggie Bush, R1
  
  
• SS Roman Harper, R2 (Via Trade Back, Gained C Jeff Faine)
  
  
• RG Jahri Evans, R4 (Via Trade Back, Gained NT Hollis Thomas)
  
  
• DE Rob Ninkovich, R5
  
  
• RT Zach Strief, R7
  
  
• WR Marques Colston, R7 (*Compensatory)

2007 Draft Class

• LT Jermon Bushrod, R4 (Via Trade of WR Donte Stallworth; If PHI re-signed DS, it'd been a R2 pick)
  

2008 Draft Class

• DT Sedrick Ellis, R1 (Via Trade)
  
  
• CB Tracy Porter, R2
  
  
• LG Carl Nicks, R5 (Via Trade)

2009 Draft Class

• CB Malcolm Jenkins, R1
  
  
• P Thomas Morstead, R5 (Via Trade)

2010 Draft Class

• CB Patrick Robinson, R1
  
  
• TE Jimmy Graham, R3

2011 Draft Class

• DE Cameron Jordan, R1
  
  
• RB Mark Ingram Jr, R1 (Via Trade)

2012 Draft Class

• DT Akiem Hicks, R3

2013 Draft Class

• SS Kenny Vaccaro, R1
  
  
• LT Terron Armstead, R3
  
  
• WR Kenny Stills, R5

2014 Draft Class

• WR Brandin Cooks, R1 (Via Trade)

2015 Draft Class

• LT Andrus Peat, R1
  
  
• CB P. J. Williams, R3 (Via Trade of Kenny Stills, Also Gained LB Dannell Ellerbe)
  
  
• NT Tyeler Davison, R5 (Via Trade of Ben Grubbs)

2016 Draft Class

• DT Sheldon Rankins, R1
  
  
• WR Michael Thomas, R2
  
  
• SS Vonn Bell, R2 (Via Trade)
  
  
• DT David Onyemata, R4 (Via Trade with WAS)

2017 Draft Class

• CB Marshon Lattimore, R1
  
  
• LT Ryan Ramcyzk, R1 (Via Trade of Jimmy Graham)
  
  
• FS Marcus Williams, R2
  
  
• RB Alvin Kamara, R3 (Via Trade)
  
  
• LB Alex Anzalone, R3
  
  
• DE Trey Hendrickson, R3 (*Compensatory)
  
  
• DE Al-Quadin Muhammad, R6

2018 Draft Class

• DE Marcus Davenport, R1 (Via Trade)
  
  
• WR Tre'Quan Smith, R3
  
  
• RB Boston Scott, R6
  
  
• OL Will Clapp, R7

2019 Draft Class

• C Erik McCoy, R2 (Via Trade)
  
  
• SS C. J. Gardner, R4 (Via Trade)
  
  
• LB Kaden Elliss, R7

2020 Draft Class

• C Cesar Ruiz, R1
  
  
• LB Zack Baun, R3 (Via Trade)
  
  
• TE Adam Trautman, R3 (*Compensatory Via Trade)
  
  
• QB Tommy Stevens, R7 (Via Trade)

Do you feel some have been left off that should be on the list as they were successful picks?

We'll come to UDFAs later, we're debating draft picks and there value for now, agreed?

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

To be fair, Muhammad hasn't exactly lit the world on fire these past three seasons with the Colts.

I watched couple of their games last season, and he was very ineffective against both the passing and running game.

I don't think we'd be excited if the Saints signed a FA with his stats, and more importantly, his performance on the field.

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

Agreed, but signing a FA (with years of metrics) is different from a draft (and complete unknowns). Muhammad is a 6th rounder who has only missed one game (2018 season) for the Colts over the last three years. To me, he’s a depth guy, consistent and doesn’t make mistakes, but definitely not a playmaker. He wouldn’t be my starting DE, but he would definitely be rotating in, consistently. Got to have those guys though. Cant build a roster full of oft injured two 1sts without having depth for protection. Speaking of Davenport, and speaking of stats, lol, I’m sure you know where I’m going with this...

One guy is a 6th rounder, the other guy is a 2 1sts and then some guy..., neither are able to break into the top 150+. Their stats aren’t marginally different. Your eye test of his play only paints one portion of the picture, the stats paint the other.

Yes, I’d take three years of Muhammad and his play over three years of Davenport and his play. I’d have at least my two first round selections, Lamar Jackson coming to mind immediately in 2018, and iirc Montez Sweat was available near the time we would have picked in 2019. Also, it’s my belief that Trey Hendrickson, the playmaker at DE we coveted, and apparently didn’t realize we had, would have been realized earlier.

Yes, I would have been much happier with Muhammad, Trey, and my two firsts than Davenport. Who knows what the future brings for Mr Davenport though. I hope he shatters records, I truly do!

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

Hendrickson's development was negatively affected mainly by his injuries not by others being vastly better than him outside of Jordan.

We'll see how he does with the Bengals... he might very likely never again get close to the season he had.

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

That's 30 successful picks in the first three rounds. Then there's 15 listed from the final four rounds of which possibly eight can be called mildly successful or better. Those numbers are right around the league average. The success rate of picks after round three are historically much lower than those from the earlier rounds.

Throwing more later round picks at the wall might provide another success or two, but it would also result in many times more misses. Using those picks, instead, to move up into the first three rounds would give the team a much higher chance of individual success. You can still find the "diamonds in the rough", like Granderson, via UDFA.

A perfect example of volume of picks versus quality of picks can be seen with the Vikings. Since 2010 the Vikings have had more than the normally allotted seven draft picks every single year by trading down and accumulating more picks.

2010 8
2011 10
2012 10
2013 9
2014 10
2015 10
2016 8
2017 11
2018 8
2019 12
2020 15
2021 11

That's 122 picks over twelve years. They have only managed 13 Pro Bowl players over that period. What they did end up with is a lengthy list of players that are currently out of the league. Only 42 of those 122 have started at least one game. They have managed only four years with over eight wins, four playoff visits and only two playoff wins (yes, we know those two wins well).

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

All the All Pros were from the first two rounds except for Danielle Hunter, Blair Walsh and Everson Griffen.

You can do the best player pulling. That's subjective.

Vikings Draft History