Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

The New Orleans Saints are one of ten teams projected to earn multiple compensatory draft picks in 2022’s NFL draft in Las Vegas, per Over The Cap’s Nick Korte, though his chart doesn’t include comp picks received as part of the league’s recent incentivized minority hiring program.

New Orleans has already locked in a 2022 third rounder following the loss of Terry Fontenot, their pro personnel director who left for the open Atlanta Falcons general manager position. Teams that lose minority candidates to executive roles with other teams receive two third-round picks in subsequent draft cycles.

So that’s in addition to the comp picks Korte projects the Saints to recoup after losing defensive linemen Trey Hendrickson and Sheldon Rankins to the Cincinnati Bengals and New York Jets, respectively. At this early stage, the Saints are expected to receive a fourth rounder for Hendrickson and a sixth rounder for Rankins.

However, that could change. Korte adds that Hendrickson is one of six players whose comp pick could upgrade to a third rounder if he logs enough playing time in New York; that seems likely after he broke out last year, quickly surpassing his career snaps percentage of 32.8% (he played 53.4% of snaps in 2020). We’ll know for sure once the NFL announces comp picks next spring.

In the meantime, here are where the Saints are slotted in the 2022 NFL draft (not including the sixth rounder forfeited for COVID-19 protocols violations last season):

Round 1
Round 2
Round 3
Round 3 (compensation for Fontenot)
Round 4
Round 4 (compensation for Hendrickson)
Round 5
Round 6 (compensation for Rankins)
Round 7

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

Sweet! Trade bait!

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

We usually package several picks to move up go get the player they covet.

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

We need to keep all these picks and trade back in the first round to get more. We have a lot holes on the roster. Every receiver but Thomas could be upgraded. We have nobody proven at TE. We have one proven LB. If we get someone like Richard Sherman at CB thats not a long term solution. We are in for cap hell next year too. We need all these picks.

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

It is statistically proven that the success rate of draftees declines as their draft position moves downward. In addition, the success rate of picks after the third round are markedly lower than earlier rounds, and not markedly greater than that of undrafted free agents. To me it makes more sense to trade up picking a smaller number of players that have a much higher chance of success, while looking to fill holes in the UDFA market.

Regardless, Loomis and Payton have never traded down to accumulate picks so I doubt they will begin to do so at this point.

;)

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

That makes sense jp. Personally I'd rather have a roster mostly full of the players I really wanted vs a full team of unknowns and a lower ceiling than moving up for the player that I really want on my team.

Edit: My mama always told me that you've got to have a vision of what you want and then make it happen.

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

Yeah, I’ve read that article several times, it’s a good analysis. Quant guys are becoming more valuable to coaches and player personnel/scouting teams than ever before.

That being said, is it even mathematically/fiscally possible to build your starting 22’s from nothing but 1’s and 2’s? Give me a team full of Colston’s, Moore’s, Thomas’, Sproles, Bushrods, Evans’, etc... than a team full of Prima Donna #1’s.

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

I am so glad that you brought up the 2017 draft, JP! We had seven (7) picks in that draft and six of the seven picks were in the top three rounds! The loan pick outside of the first three rounds (6th for DE Muhahhud) was the only one of the bunch not to develop into starter material This supports the premise that moving out of the latter rounds into the upper rounds gives more chance for success. Beyond the very occasional Colston type hit in a late round, the Saints success has come in the top three rounds FAR more consistently than later.

2006 was a successful anomaly in the annals of Saints drafting with eight picks. Not only did they get lucky with Colston late, but Strief, as well. As the old saying goes, a blind hog can find an acorn. Reggie Bush and Roman Harper were successful picks in that draft per their round one and two selections. Jahri Evans was a pleasant surprise in round four. The three remaining players selected in rounds five and six played a disappointing THREE total games between them in a Saints uniform. But, not bad for the pre-Ireland era.

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

That four DE rotation matches perfectly the draft strategy I propose. Three of the four were drafted in the first three rounds (Jordan, Davenport in the 1st, Hendrickson in the 3rd) and the fourth (Granderson) was a UDFA, just as I pointed out are statistically equivalent success-wise to the longshots from rounds four through seven.

:bng:

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

Thank you for the spelling correction! Too bad Muhammad didn't help the Saints.

Yes, 2017 was a tremendous draft class, not based upon the number of picks, but upon the top heavy rounds in which the picks were taken.

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

I like it, draft and then develop, who would have thunk it to be that simple. One addition though, let your developmental players see time on the football field, in actual games, and not just on special teams. If you’re “developmental” players take years to reach maturity..., then you’re effectively developing other team’s players.

Let em’ play!

Trey Hendrickson drafted in 2017, didn’t start until 2019, only starting three games then. Why?

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

Don’t forget UDFA guys like Pierre Thomas! Lance Moore, Josh Hill, Chris Ivory. The Saints have had some nice success with undrafted players. Heck, iirc Jake Delhomme and Tom Dempsey were undrafted. I know I’m leaving out some, maybe Sammy Knight(?), and for that I’m sorry. I’ll take Pierre Thomas over Ricky Williams, Reggie Bush AND Mark Ingram, combined. Nothing wrong with the other three, but I’m very fond of unheralded talent that just gets work done without drama.

And no, this team wouldn’t have had as much success without those guys you’ve listed.

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

As for Lattimore, Ramczyk, Williams, Kamara, Anzalone, Hendrickson, I'd get rid of none of them. But, I'd continue to trade every 4th, 5th, and 6th rounder to move into the 3rd. Then use the extra 3rd or two to pick up a 2nd. Like I've been saying, you make your hay in the top three rounds statistically. You'll likely not always find partners wanting to trade down (they know better, too) so you'll obviously still have lower round picks occasionally.

Let's see, though. You listed 12 players over 15 years. A few were very impactful. Others were average, yet provided depth. No telling what could have been if some could have been turned into something better with an earlier round pick. And just think of all those others from those lower rounds that went to waste. Perhaps that extra championship or two!

:bng:

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

Colston wouldn't have been given a chance under that scenario. I feel players should get playing time based upon how well they can do their jobs. Who cares what round or how many picks they cost? You put your best team on the field. Round drafted should be forgotten and not come into play when deciding play. That is short-sighted, don't you think?

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

Well next year the saying its going to be one of the best drafts...

If that is the case stockpile every pick we can get and just snag everyone ya can.

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

The value of earlier vs later round picks needs to be taken in the context of the value of present year vs future year picks. You can often trade this years 3rd rounder for a 2nd rounder next year, or trade a late 1st round pick this year for a pick that could be #1 overall for all you know next year. So if you don't have room on your roster for all your draft picks, a reasonable strategy is to trade those picks for higher picks the next year. If you don't think you can find a good player in the 4th round, then instead of trading this years 4th and 5th rounders and next years 3rd rounder to move back into the 3rd round this year, trade this years 4th rounder for a 3rd rounder next year, and have two 3rd rounders next year instead of none. If you keep doing this and stockpiling picks, eventually you may have to trade up, but you won't have to mortgage the future to do it. I don't care that much whether we trade up or down. What I care is that we are lenders not borrowers. Taking out a cash advance on the credit card and paying the bank double digit interest is not a winner move. If we don't value late round picks despite all the history of Evans, Nicks, Colston, and guys like Tom Brady, fine, trade them away. But trade them for higher picks next year.

How awesome would it be if we set a goal: trade a 7th round pick next year for a 6th round pick in 2023, trade the 6th round pick in 2023 for a 5th round pick in 2024, trade the 5th round pick in 2024 for a 4th round pick in 2025, trade the 4th round pick in 2025 for a 3rd round pick in 2026, trade the 3rd round pick in 2026 for a 2nd round pick in 2027, trade the 2nd round pick in 2027 for a 1st round pick in 2028 from a playoff team likely to pick late in the round, trade the late 1st round pick in 2028 for a 1st round pick in 2029 from a losing team desperate to save its GM's job. If that pick in 2029 is early in the round, take an elite player, if not trade it again for a 1st round pick from a desperate team. The 2022 7th round pick could be our elite franchise QB early 1st round pick in 2029-2030. No reason it can't work. All we have to do is be the lender not the debtor. Rich dad poor dad. Live debt free. Win.

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

Whew, alright, let's do it this way...

So would y'all agree these are the most successful picks in the respective draft classes of the Sean Payton/Mickey Loomis tenure?


2006 Draft

• RB Reggie Bush, R1
  
  
• SS Roman Harper, R2 (Via Trade Back, Gained C Jeff Faine)
  
  
• RG Jahri Evans, R4 (Via Trade Back, Gained NT Hollis Thomas)
  
  
• DE Rob Ninkovich, R5
  
  
• RT Zach Strief, R7
  
  
• WR Marques Colston, R7 (*Compensatory)

2007 Draft Class

• LT Jermon Bushrod, R4 (Via Trade of WR Donte Stallworth; If PHI re-signed DS, it'd been a R2 pick)
  

2008 Draft Class

• DT Sedrick Ellis, R1 (Via Trade)
  
  
• CB Tracy Porter, R2
  
  
• LG Carl Nicks, R5 (Via Trade)

2009 Draft Class

• CB Malcolm Jenkins, R1
  
  
• P Thomas Morstead, R5 (Via Trade)

2010 Draft Class

• CB Patrick Robinson, R1
  
  
• TE Jimmy Graham, R3

2011 Draft Class

• DE Cameron Jordan, R1
  
  
• RB Mark Ingram Jr, R1 (Via Trade)

2012 Draft Class

• DT Akiem Hicks, R3

2013 Draft Class

• SS Kenny Vaccaro, R1
  
  
• LT Terron Armstead, R3
  
  
• WR Kenny Stills, R5

2014 Draft Class

• WR Brandin Cooks, R1 (Via Trade)

2015 Draft Class

• LT Andrus Peat, R1
  
  
• CB P. J. Williams, R3 (Via Trade of Kenny Stills, Also Gained LB Dannell Ellerbe)
  
  
• NT Tyeler Davison, R5 (Via Trade of Ben Grubbs)

2016 Draft Class

• DT Sheldon Rankins, R1
  
  
• WR Michael Thomas, R2
  
  
• SS Vonn Bell, R2 (Via Trade)
  
  
• DT David Onyemata, R4 (Via Trade with WAS)

2017 Draft Class

• CB Marshon Lattimore, R1
  
  
• LT Ryan Ramcyzk, R1 (Via Trade of Jimmy Graham)
  
  
• FS Marcus Williams, R2
  
  
• RB Alvin Kamara, R3 (Via Trade)
  
  
• LB Alex Anzalone, R3
  
  
• DE Trey Hendrickson, R3 (*Compensatory)
  
  
• DE Al-Quadin Muhammad, R6

2018 Draft Class

• DE Marcus Davenport, R1 (Via Trade)
  
  
• WR Tre'Quan Smith, R3
  
  
• RB Boston Scott, R6
  
  
• OL Will Clapp, R7

2019 Draft Class

• C Erik McCoy, R2 (Via Trade)
  
  
• SS C. J. Gardner, R4 (Via Trade)
  
  
• LB Kaden Elliss, R7

2020 Draft Class

• C Cesar Ruiz, R1
  
  
• LB Zack Baun, R3 (Via Trade)
  
  
• TE Adam Trautman, R3 (*Compensatory Via Trade)
  
  
• QB Tommy Stevens, R7 (Via Trade)

Do you feel some have been left off that should be on the list as they were successful picks?

We'll come to UDFAs later, we're debating draft picks and there value for now, agreed?

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

To be fair, Muhammad hasn't exactly lit the world on fire these past three seasons with the Colts.

I watched couple of their games last season, and he was very ineffective against both the passing and running game.

I don't think we'd be excited if the Saints signed a FA with his stats, and more importantly, his performance on the field.

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

Agreed, but signing a FA (with years of metrics) is different from a draft (and complete unknowns). Muhammad is a 6th rounder who has only missed one game (2018 season) for the Colts over the last three years. To me, he’s a depth guy, consistent and doesn’t make mistakes, but definitely not a playmaker. He wouldn’t be my starting DE, but he would definitely be rotating in, consistently. Got to have those guys though. Cant build a roster full of oft injured two 1sts without having depth for protection. Speaking of Davenport, and speaking of stats, lol, I’m sure you know where I’m going with this...

One guy is a 6th rounder, the other guy is a 2 1sts and then some guy..., neither are able to break into the top 150+. Their stats aren’t marginally different. Your eye test of his play only paints one portion of the picture, the stats paint the other.

Yes, I’d take three years of Muhammad and his play over three years of Davenport and his play. I’d have at least my two first round selections, Lamar Jackson coming to mind immediately in 2018, and iirc Montez Sweat was available near the time we would have picked in 2019. Also, it’s my belief that Trey Hendrickson, the playmaker at DE we coveted, and apparently didn’t realize we had, would have been realized earlier.

Yes, I would have been much happier with Muhammad, Trey, and my two firsts than Davenport. Who knows what the future brings for Mr Davenport though. I hope he shatters records, I truly do!

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

Hendrickson's development was negatively affected mainly by his injuries not by others being vastly better than him outside of Jordan.

We'll see how he does with the Bengals... he might very likely never again get close to the season he had.

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

That's 30 successful picks in the first three rounds. Then there's 15 listed from the final four rounds of which possibly eight can be called mildly successful or better. Those numbers are right around the league average. The success rate of picks after round three are historically much lower than those from the earlier rounds.

Throwing more later round picks at the wall might provide another success or two, but it would also result in many times more misses. Using those picks, instead, to move up into the first three rounds would give the team a much higher chance of individual success. You can still find the "diamonds in the rough", like Granderson, via UDFA.

A perfect example of volume of picks versus quality of picks can be seen with the Vikings. Since 2010 the Vikings have had more than the normally allotted seven draft picks every single year by trading down and accumulating more picks.

2010 8
2011 10
2012 10
2013 9
2014 10
2015 10
2016 8
2017 11
2018 8
2019 12
2020 15
2021 11

That's 122 picks over twelve years. They have only managed 13 Pro Bowl players over that period. What they did end up with is a lengthy list of players that are currently out of the league. Only 42 of those 122 have started at least one game. They have managed only four years with over eight wins, four playoff visits and only two playoff wins (yes, we know those two wins well).

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

All the All Pros were from the first two rounds except for Danielle Hunter, Blair Walsh and Everson Griffen.

You can do the best player pulling. That's subjective.

Vikings Draft History

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

Alright, let's try this...

Who would you say has been the best pick by draft class in production for the Saints?


2006 Draft

• RB Reggie Bush, R1
  
  
• SS Roman Harper, R2 (Via Trade Back, Gained C Jeff Faine)
  
  
• RG Jahri Evans, R4 (Via Trade Back, Gained NT Hollis Thomas)
  
  
• DE Rob Ninkovich, R5
  
  
• RT Zach Strief, R7
  
  
• WR Marques Colston, R7 (*Compensatory)

2007 Draft Class

• LT Jermon Bushrod, R4 (Via Trade of WR Donte Stallworth; If PHI re-signed DS, it'd been a R2 pick)
  

2008 Draft Class

• DT Sedrick Ellis, R1 (Via Trade)
  
  
• CB Tracy Porter, R2
  
  
• LG Carl Nicks, R5 (Via Trade)

2009 Draft Class

• CB Malcolm Jenkins, R1
  
  
• P Thomas Morstead, R5 (Via Trade)

2010 Draft Class

• CB Patrick Robinson, R1
  
  
• TE Jimmy Graham, R3

2011 Draft Class

• DE Cameron Jordan, R1
  
  
• RB Mark Ingram Jr, R1 (Via Trade)

2012 Draft Class

• DT Akiem Hicks, R3

2013 Draft Class

• SS Kenny Vaccaro, R1
  
  
• LT Terron Armstead, R3
  
  
• WR Kenny Stills, R5

2014 Draft Class

• WR Brandin Cooks, R1 (Via Trade)

2015 Draft Class

• LT Andrus Peat, R1
  
  
• CB P. J. Williams, R3 (Via Trade of Kenny Stills, Also Gained LB Dannell Ellerbe)
  
  
• NT Tyeler Davison, R5 (Via Trade of Ben Grubbs)

2016 Draft Class

• DT Sheldon Rankins, R1
  
  
• WR Michael Thomas, R2
  
  
• SS Vonn Bell, R2 (Via Trade)
  
  
• DT David Onyemata, R4 (Via Trade with WAS)

2017 Draft Class

• CB Marshon Lattimore, R1
  
  
• LT Ryan Ramcyzk, R1 (Via Trade of Jimmy Graham)
  
  
• FS Marcus Williams, R2
  
  
• RB Alvin Kamara, R3 (Via Trade)
  
  
• LB Alex Anzalone, R3
  
  
• DE Trey Hendrickson, R3 (*Compensatory)
  
  
• DE Al-Quadin Muhammad, R6

2018 Draft Class

• DE Marcus Davenport, R1 (Via Trade)
  
  
• WR Tre'Quan Smith, R3
  
  
• RB Boston Scott, R6
  
  
• OL Will Clapp, R7

2019 Draft Class

• C Erik McCoy, R2 (Via Trade)
  
  
• SS C. J. Gardner, R4 (Via Trade)
  
  
• LB Kaden Elliss, R7

2020 Draft Class

• C Cesar Ruiz, R1
  
  
• LB Zack Baun, R3 (Via Trade)
  
  
• TE Adam Trautman, R3 (*Compensatory Via Trade)
  
  
• QB Tommy Stevens, R7 (Via Trade)

Some of our best players in the Payton/Loomis have been acquired throughout the draft and hardly exclusive to Rounds 1 and 2...

Look at 2016, the better DT was taken in R4 and the SS we took in R2, that move up ultimately cost an add'l three picks, isn't even with the team...

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

Our best class was clearly 2017 and that's because we had six of our seven picks in the top three rounds. What could have been better? Perhaps six picks in the first two rounds. Or five picks in the first two rounds. But mainly, it's being able to get the player that you want dearly in whichever round without missing out on them by taking a chance and waiting to see if they are still there later.

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

It's really hard to argue against that 2017 Saints draft class. A few All Pros and quality starters. Thank goodness the brain trust didn't get Reuben Foster or Tak McKinley :rolleyes:.

Getting Ramz at the bottom of the 1st was a gift.

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

Re: Saints projected to receive three comp picks in 2022 NFL draft
 

We’ll need all the draft picks we can get to trade for Russell Wilson next year.