K Major

The Rundown: How the Saints will handle Sean Payton’s absence

by NICK UNDERHILL




https://neworleans.football/the-rund...misses-a-game/

K Major

The Saints prepare for all contingencies, which has, over the years, included having Pete Carmichael call plays during the preseason to be ready in case disaster strikes.

Whether or not Friday’s news qualifies as a disaster will be determined on Sunday, but the team had to break glass after Sean Payton tested positive for Covid-19 on Friday. The coach had missed practice on Wednesday due to feeling under the weather, returned to work on Thursday and was out again on Friday.

Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen will act as the head coach on Sunday against the Buccaneers and Carmichael will call plays. The big difference will be that Allen will make the decisions on when to go for two points, on fourth downs and other situations like that.

Players earlier this week said the feel of Wednesday’s practice was a little strange without Payton on the field, but noted that it changed nothing about preparation.

“I think we just showed up,” tight end Nick Vannett said. “I harp on it a lot, just focus on the process. It’s Wednesday practice, so we focused on first and second down. It does not matter if the head coach is here or not. We still have to take care of all of our stuff.”

Carmichael has called plays before. He took over when Payton was recovering from a broken leg late in the 2011 season and all throughout 2012 when the coach was serving a suspension. Considering how long he’s been around and the roles he’s filled, the offense should be in solid hands this week.

Allen, meanwhile, should have no issues leading the defense. The only surprise is that Ryan Nielsen, the assistant head coach, will not step into the lead role this week. However, Allen has been a head coach before and can easily fill that role.

The biggest question centers on when Payton will return. Failing a test late in the week could put his availability for next week in jeopardy.

Playing Miami on Monday night buys the team an extra day, though the coach will almost certainly miss some practices next week. But he will almost certainly remain involved in the game-planning process and preparation by connecting with the team virtually.

ATTACKING TAYSOM: Teams seem to agree on how to attack Taysom Hill.

According to Next Gen Stats, defenses are sending five or more pass rushers at Hill on 41% of his dropbacks this season, which is the highest amount in the NFL among players with at least 70 passing attempts.

Is the approach smart? Maybe. Maybe not. On the one hand, Hill has a career completion rate of 64.4% when being blitzed. On the other hand, three of his 73 career passing attempts on these plays have gotten intercepted.

Overall, this seems like a dangerous approach, one that could easily be countered by Hill tucking the ball and running, which he has been doing well this season. With these quicker decisions on film, one must wonder if teams will adjust this approach moving forward.

BEATING BRADY: The Saints have become the one team that knows how to get after Tom Brady.

The Bucs quarterback became the greatest of all time by avoiding mistakes and efficiently shredding opposing defenses. But instead, in three regular-season games against New Orleans over the last two seasons, he’s thrown seven interceptions.

The Saints have accomplished that by knowing Tampa Bay, Brady’s tendencies, and simply matching up well against their opponent.

“It’s not about X’s and O’s sometimes,” C.J. Gardner-Johnson said. “It is about understanding the preparation that goes into the game. You have to think about it. This guy (Brady) can call your bluff three hours before the game. You don’t want anybody calling your bluff before the game. So, you just have to make sure you prepare so when we step on the field, w can keep him on his toes and edge. If he can pick you apart, it’s going to be a long night.”

Malcolm Jenkins reiterated that sentiment, that it is more about how the players match up against one another than anything else. He said it almost feels like the Saints got built to play against the Bucs.

But it is about more than the secondary. The key to beating Brady, as it always has been, is getting him off of his spot. The problem is that he is making it nearly impossible for the opposition to accomplish that feat. Brady has only been pressured on 14% of his dropbacks this season, which is by far the best mark in the NFL. The bad news is that the Saints are allowing a passer rating against of 113.1 on quick passes this season.

The reason it is so hard to get after Brady: He’s completed 229 passes this season in 2.5 seconds or less. When the ball is coming out that fast, it’s hard for the pass rush to make much of an impact.

If New Orleans wants to win this week, it has to find a way to get after Brady quickly and limit his impact on quick passes.

PLAYOFF OUTLOOK: The Saints are currently the 11th seed in NFC, but all the teams sitting in spots 7-11 have a 6-7 record, which puts New Orleans squarely in the hunt.

The Saints seem to have a pretty favorable schedule down the stretch, but many of the other teams sitting at 6-7 can look at their upcoming opponents and see a path to nine wins.

Here is a look at who all of them have to play.

Washington: at Philadelphia, at Dallas, Philadelphia, at Giants

Minnesota: at Chicago, Los Angeles, at Green Bay, Chicago

Philadelphia: Washington, Giants, at Washington, Dallas

Atlanta: at San Francisco, Detroit, at Buffalo, New Orleans

New Orleans: at Tampa Bay, Miami, Carolina, at Falcons

VANNETT EXCELLING: When Nick Vannett signed with the Saints, he said Sean Payton’s vision for him was one of the selling points. The tight end averaged 15 catches per season during his five seasons before landing in New Orleans, but the Saints coach told him he had untapped potential as a receiver.

Everyone else is starting to see that vision come to fruition. Vannett has been limited to four games due to knee injuries but already has eight catches for 123 yards with a touchdown. He’s quickly emerging as a viable option on a team that desperately needs more feasible options at tight end.

“Obviously, this is all I’ve ever wanted,” Vannett said. “Ever since I’ve been in the league, I’ve been very hopeful for this opportunity. I’m really happy to have it and trying to take advantage of it as much as I can.”

Teams will eventually adjust to Vannett catching more passes, which is when we’ll better find out if he can maintain this momentum. Assuming he can, having a receiving threat who blocks as well as Vannett does create an advantage this team hasn’t had the last couple of years. If Adam Trautman comes back from injury and plays well, the Saints could have a solid duo at tight end down the stretch.

DAVID ONYEMATA REVIEW: David Onyemata would have to get on a hot streak to match his overall output or even to match the same trajectory that he was on last season.

The defensive tackle only has half a sack after finishing with 6 ½ last year. While sacks are only part of the equation, Onyemata’s numbers across the board are down. He’s averaging 2.28 pressures per game after being at 3.2 last year.

Injuries on the defensive line have played a part in Onyemata’s downtick. The quality of the pass rush simply hasn’t been the same overall, but some of it also falls on Onyemata. He hasn’t won as many reps as he did last year.

Even so, he’s still playing good run defense and is one of the team’s better players overall. But after looking like he was on the verge of becoming one of the league’s elite interior rushers, Onyemata has taken a little bit of a step back. Perhaps he can change the conversation down the stretch.

DID YOU KNOW?: Marshon Lattimore has shadowed Mike Evans on 71% of his routes when the two have been on the field at the same time throughout their careers. Lattimore has allowed 12 receptions for 248 yards, three touchdowns and one interception on 26 targets.

HEAVY BOXES: Alvin Kamara has seen a little more attention than he has during previous seasons, which is likely in part due to the personnel groupings the team uses, but also due to him being the team’s biggest threat.

Opposing defenses have stacked the box on 23% of his carries this year, as opposed to his career average of 17% before this season. As a result, his average first contact with a defensive player this year has come within 0.9 yards. Previously, he got to 1.8 yards per carry before first contact.

Despite the differences, Kamara says he hasn’t noticed an overwhelming change.

“I just keep moving. I’ll just try to make sure I’m on point with my reads and just keep going because, I mean, at a certain point it all feels the same,” Kamara said. “There’s not one team that’s going to be like, ‘Oh, well, Alvin’s back there, we’re good, we can take somebody out of the box.’ I mean, you’ve just got to play. I just kind of try to stay true to my reads, use my eyes and keep my feel the same. Like, try not to trick myself or kind of play myself out of what I’m seeing. Like, I just try to keep it all natural and just float. Eight in the box, ten in the box, whatever, I don’t know.”

Kamara has been incredibly valuable to the Saints this season. Despite being the team’s biggest offensive threat, he is averaging 109 yards from scrimmage per game this season. Last year, he averaged 112. So, even though some efficiency numbers are down for him this year, he’s more than carrying his weight every week for the offense.

HIGH PRAISE: Jeff Nowak of WWL Radio shared a great quote that Payton shared on the radio this week about Kwon Alexander.

“You just have to put the film on, and you see energy, effort, consistently on every play,” the coach said. “I don’t care if you put on play 30. It’s going to look the same as play three for him. We’re a better team with him in the lineup, and I’ll tell you what: Our decision to bring him back was a fantastic one. One in which a lot of people might have said, ‘Well, with all the injuries he’s had …’ but sometimes in our business there’s an intangible element with somebody, and that exists with Kwon.”

There is no doubt that the Saints feed off Alexander’s energy, much like they do with C.J. Gardner-Johnson.

“I bring a different fire to the team,” Gardner-Johnson said. “That’s how I feel and it’ll be like that until I die.”

UNDERDOGS: The Saints are entering this game as 11-point underdogs, and, predictably, the team isn’t paying much attention to the line.

“I don’t care if we’re a 100-point underdog,” Gardner-Johnson said. “What’s that mean? We were underdogs last game. What’s that mean? This group has won a lot of games as underdogs. Before I got here, this group was winning football games. So, underdogs is just a word. A lot of underdogs take out the big dog.”

In what might be the best quote of the year, Kamara added a colorful twist to it.

“I don’t pay attention to that,” Kamara said. “I don’t gamble. I don’t do nothing but shoot dice.”

If the Saints somehow manage to come out of this one with a victory, their odds of making the playoffs will feel like much less of a gamble.

"We're a violent team & a tough team. We find ways to put ourselves in position to win. We just have to WIN". Alvin Kamara

jeanpierre

Saints have always been a great underdog, in fact, there probably the league's best; while I'd feel better having Ramczyk back, I like our chances this week...

A different playcaller may give us the early advantage we need to keep it close for our 4th quarter surge - assuming it goes according to the 2021 game script...

Thirty3

He states that Hill has a 64.4% completion when being blitzed. That is 7% better than Winston's OVERALL completion stats. And this with bum finger and foot.
On Onyemata I'd say not having Rankins or Malcom Brown next to him is the difference. Onyemata getting more attention from blockers.

mapcow

uh-oh!!! Sean may not be coming back, possibly. Eerily reminiscent of Thomas.

iceshack149

And Olin Kreutz!

RailBoss

Business as usual, SP will be patched in on the headsets. Only thing missing will be the smell of Juicy Fruit.

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Rell&Gold

That is a misleading statement are you insinuating Taysom is a better or more accurate passer?

Rell&Gold

Because Taysom is @ 58% rn

Rell&Gold

execution across the board. Coaching to players. Our playoffs started last week the mentalitiy needs to be fine tuned and adjusted week to week until we are eliminated or come out with a SB ring