AsylumGuido

Chris Olave's Saints career is off to a strong start, and setting a historic pace



John Sigler
September 26, 2022 7:55 am CT

Chris Olave has started his New Orleans Saints career by setting a historic pace. If he can keep this up, he’ll shatter almost every rookie receiving record. The 11th overall pick in this year’s draft has been sensational through the first three weeks, routinely toasting the league’s best defensive backs deep downfield with his well-polished routes.

But it’s Olave’s receptions and yards gained that we’ll be focusing on here. He’s continuing a tradition of elite play from former Ohio State Buckeyes wide receivers in the New Orleans offense, if he’s on pace to surpass his mentor Michael Thomas if he can maintain it. Olave has already caught 17 passes to pick up 268 receiving yards through the first three weeks, though he has yet to score his first touchdown catch.

That’s an average of 5.7 receptions for 89.3 receiving yards per game — last year, just 13 receivers around the league averaged that many catches per game, and only three (Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, and Justin Jefferson) averaged more yards per game. If Olave can keep it up, though, he’s on pace to finish the 17-game season with 96.9 catches for 1,518.1 yards.

Those are crazy numbers. Generational numbers. That’s more yardage than any rookie receiver has ever set in a single season (Houston Oilers first-year pro Bill Groman set the record with 1,473 yards across 14 games way back in 1960), though two others have caught more passes: Jaylen Waddle (104) in 2021 and Anquan Boldin (101) in 2003, both 16-game seasons. Thomas ranks third-most in NFL history with 92 receptions through 15 games in 2016 (gaining 1,137 yards, a franchise record). It’s a high standard to chase, but so far Olave has met it.

It’s exactly what the Saints hoped for when they drafted him so highly, trading up twice to ensure they’d get the talented pro prospect. There have been some growing pains early on, sure, but for the most part any struggles Olave has experienced are due to inaccurate passes from his quarterback. He’s beaten every defensive back to line up against him, and he impressed everyone around him with how quickly he absorbed the playbook.

So what are the odds Olave does maintain this pace? Honestly, it’s not great. He’s a rookie and there will be unforeseen bumps and bruises along the way. He’ll have random games where he only catches two or three targets and come away with, like, 19 yards. It happens. Something to watch out for, too, is the status of Thomas and Jarvis Landry. Both veteran receivers are ahead of Olave on the depth chart, affording him more favorable matchups in coverage, and they each exited Sunday’s loss to the Carolina Panthers with injuries. If they miss time and expose Olave to more defensive attention, the degree of difficulty climbs higher for him. Even a talented rookie like him would start to slow down.

But for now we’ll just appreciate Olave for what he is: a bright spot in an otherwise miserable three-game series to open the 2022 season. Fun things have happened often when the ball goes his way, and we’ll be hoping for more highlight reel-worthy plays out of him. He’s the future of wide receiver play in New Orleans. It’ll be exciting to watch him continue growing into a really special player.

“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill