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-   -   Denver Will Be Payton’s Next Job (https://blackandgold.com/saints/102441-denver-will-payton-s-next-job.html)

Boston Saint 11-03-2022 12:49 PM
Re: Denver Will Be Payton’s Next Job
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOak (Post 962417)
A few considerations..

First off, Sean is not looking for a paycheck he is looking for a good fit which narrows the field down considerably. A good fit with the ownership and GM, not the players. He has stated this publicly.

That means the possibilities are already decided in Sean's head.

If you were GM and knowingly on that short list, why would you give anything up next year when he is free the following? Sean is not a player and Loomis cant just trade him away because the offer is right, he can trade the option but Sean can still remain retired and have a say the next year.

I do not want to hurt anyone's feelings but some people need to remember that he is not a player, he is a coach and if I were him and you trade away draft picks to get me, I am not going to you. You just traded away my ability to start building.:bng:
Indeed. I made this point months ago. When some users were saying things like “I’d never send him to Dallas” or “I’d hold out for a ransom”. Saints only have his rights through 2024. A smart team will wait and give us nothing. Especially since the ball is in Sean’s court.

TheOak 11-03-2022 03:23 PM
Re: Denver Will Be Payton’s Next Job
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by stickman (Post 962419)
Well, what do you do for that year before he is available? Hire some guy just to fire him when Payton is available? Continue on with the coach you want to replace knowing it won't get any better?

And then if you do wait there will be a few more openings a year later and more competition.

I think if he is the guy you want you have to go get him.

Just my thoughts though and NFL GMs have never seemed real interested in them.

He is not a player, that is a different animal. A player can be traded as an agreement between two teams. This is a coach.

So your conundrum is how do you get the Saints to let you sign him without having to give up what he needs to be able to build? Sounds like you aren’t building for another year anyway. Then you have to figure out how to do all that and still comply with Rooney and get the league to buy your story.

Or you could…
- Promote your DC to HC.
- Call Joe Vitt.

It’s also worth noting that players don’t like to sit out a season and miss checks, Sean Payton can sit out and get a network check :)

BakoSaint 11-03-2022 04:04 PM
Re: Denver Will Be Payton’s Next Job
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boston Saint (Post 962421)
Indeed. I made this point months ago. When some users were saying things like “I’d never send him to Dallas” or “I’d hold out for a ransom”. Saints only have his rights through 2024. A smart team will wait and give us nothing. Especially since the ball is in Sean’s court.
I disagree. NFL teams are worth $5 billion now. I am not an accountant but my rough understanding of net present value and cash flow is that if something is worth $5 billion, probably the next 7 or so years of it are at least half that value due to the time value of money, and the next 1 year is probably about 10%. So the privilege of owning and NFL team for the 2023 season is worth maybe $500 million based on what people are willing to pay to own one indefinitely. Just like you if you leased a new car you might pay 10% of its value to lease it for a year or something. So I disagree with the idea that an owner would wait a year to sign Sean Payton, if they really wanted him, to save a couple draft picks. If they have a coach they don't have faith in, throwing away another year with that coach is very costly in terms of the time value of money. Also they run many risks. The coach they lack faith in may have a lucky year that makes him hard to fire. There may be a scandal or controversy that makes him hard to fire. Sean may take a liking to broadcasting with an extra year. Another team may seize the moment and change Seans mind and make him an offer he can't refuse. Or they may have to fire the existing coach and then a new coach or new mid year interim coach catches fire and they can't let him go without his joining a lawsuit or something. Just like this year McCarthy may be doing too well to fire. We don't know what happens next year. Maybe Andy Reid retires and sure Sean Payton loved the situation in San Diego but suddenly he is offered Maholmes and sees that as more of a sure thing to cement his legacy as the first coach to win a ring with two teams. Maybe Hebert chokes in the playoffs or gets hurt. If a team wants Sean, there is much more value and certainty for them to get him now than to wait 2 years and get him in 2025 because thats a long long long time and that owner may die of a stroke or see Payton coaching the Patriots before its 2025. You don't become a billionaire so you can still patiently wait to pursue expensive hobbies when you are already in your 60's or whatever. Whatever picks they trade for Payton will be gone in 2025 anyway. Payton can say thats the only team he will play for and they can only offer chump change but if we threaten to make them wait 2 years any team will fold because waiting 2 years is untenable.

Boston Saint 11-03-2022 04:34 PM
Re: Denver Will Be Payton’s Next Job
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by BakoSaint (Post 962445)
I disagree. NFL teams are worth $5 billion now. I am not an accountant but my rough understanding of net present value and cash flow is that if something is worth $5 billion, probably the next 7 or so years of it are at least half that value due to the time value of money, and the next 1 year is probably about 10%. So the privilege of owning and NFL team for the 2023 season is worth maybe $500 million based on what people are willing to pay to own one indefinitely. Just like you if you leased a new car you might pay 10% of its value to lease it for a year or something. So I disagree with the idea that an owner would wait a year to sign Sean Payton, if they really wanted him, to save a couple draft picks. If they have a coach they don't have faith in, throwing away another year with that coach is very costly in terms of the time value of money. Also they run many risks. The coach they lack faith in may have a lucky year that makes him hard to fire. There may be a scandal or controversy that makes him hard to fire. Sean may take a liking to broadcasting with an extra year. Another team may seize the moment and change Seans mind and make him an offer he can't refuse. Or they may have to fire the existing coach and then a new coach or new mid year interim coach catches fire and they can't let him go without his joining a lawsuit or something. Just like this year McCarthy may be doing too well to fire. We don't know what happens next year. Maybe Andy Reid retires and sure Sean Payton loved the situation in San Diego but suddenly he is offered Maholmes and sees that as more of a sure thing to cement his legacy as the first coach to win a ring with two teams. Maybe Hebert chokes in the playoffs or gets hurt. If a team wants Sean, there is much more value and certainty for them to get him now than to wait 2 years and get him in 2025 because thats a long long long time and that owner may die of a stroke or see Payton coaching the Patriots before its 2025. You don't become a billionaire so you can still patiently wait to pursue expensive hobbies when you are already in your 60's or whatever. Whatever picks they trade for Payton will be gone in 2025 anyway. Payton can say thats the only team he will play for and they can only offer chump change but if we threaten to make them wait 2 years any team will fold because waiting 2 years is untenable.
You missed the part about Sean Payton having the control. The situation would have to be ideal to pull him out of the money he is making sound studio work now. These owners aren’t concerned about the money for 1 year. Not only would an owner have to ask themselves if they want Payton minus key draft picks now or Payton with those draft picks in a year.

Likewise PAYTON has to decide if he wants to leave the low stress work he’s doing now to go to a team with diminished draft capital or wait a year then go with they have full draft capabilities.

BakoSaint 11-03-2022 05:56 PM
Re: Denver Will Be Payton’s Next Job
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boston Saint (Post 962447)
You missed the part about Sean Payton having the control. The situation would have to be ideal to pull him out of the money he is making sound studio work now. These owners aren’t concerned about the money for 1 year. Not only would an owner have to ask themselves if they want Payton minus key draft picks now or Payton with those draft picks in a year.

Likewise PAYTON has to decide if he wants to leave the low stress work he’s doing now to go to a team with diminished draft capital or wait a year then go with they have full draft capabilities.
Its 2 years not one year. If you are some 70 year old owner and the question is do you want a winning coach now or in 2 years, you probably want one now. If Payton prefers broadcasting that ball is 100% in his corner but if he wants to coach in 2023 or 2024 that ball is in our corner and a $5 billion owner is going to have to fork over the picks if they dont want to watch Nathaniel Hackett or Josh McDaniels or whoever coach for 2 more years, maybe the last 2 years they can still get it up with their trophy wife or whatevs.

Boston Saint 11-03-2022 06:05 PM
Re: Denver Will Be Payton’s Next Job
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by BakoSaint (Post 962454)
Its 2 years not one year. If you are some 70 year old owner and the question is do you want a winning coach now or in 2 years, you probably want one now. If Payton prefers broadcasting that ball is 100% in his corner but if he wants to coach in 2023 or 2024 that ball is in our corner and a $5 billion owner is going to have to fork over the picks if they dont want to watch Nathaniel Hackett or Josh McDaniels or whoever coach for 2 more years, maybe the last 2 years they can still get it up with their trophy wife or whatevs.
Yes, I was the one that mentioned 2024 earlier in this thread. I’m aware when it is. My point was meaning waiting an extra year after the upcoming off season. Again, it’s not up to some arbitrary “70 year” old owner as much as it is to Sean Payton. Sean Payton could say it’s not worth going to a team that has limited itself via draft picks (like you always ***** about). Time will tell

BakoSaint 11-03-2022 06:52 PM
Re: Denver Will Be Payton’s Next Job
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boston Saint (Post 962456)
Yes, I was the one that mentioned 2024 earlier in this thread. I’m aware when it is. My point was meaning waiting an extra year after the upcoming off season. Again, it’s not up to some arbitrary “70 year” old owner as much as it is to Sean Payton. Sean Payton could say it’s not worth going to a team that has limited itself via draft picks (like you always ***** about). Time will tell
My understanding is its not an extra year after the upcoming offseason they would have to wait, its an extra two years after the upcoming offseason. My understanding is we control Sean Payton through the 2024 season which actually ends in early 2025 so if teams bide their time and dont trade for him this 2022-2023 offseason they cant sign him free in the following 2023-2024 offseason because we still own his rights for the 2024 season so he only becomes a free agent in about March 2025 which is 2.5 years from now. Thats a long time to wait. If I am wrong let me know. I take ‘through the 2024 season’ to mean he becomes a free agent at the end of that season in March 2025, or at least whenever or 2024 season ends in early 2025.

Boston Saint 11-03-2022 07:14 PM
Re: Denver Will Be Payton’s Next Job
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by BakoSaint (Post 962458)
My understanding is its not an extra year after the upcoming offseason they would have to wait, its an extra two years after the upcoming offseason. My understanding is we control Sean Payton through the 2024 season which actually ends in early 2025 so if teams bide their time and dont trade for him this 2022-2023 offseason they cant sign him free in the following 2023-2024 offseason because we still own his rights for the 2024 season so he only becomes a free agent in about March 2025 which is 2.5 years from now. Thats a long time to wait. If I am wrong let me know. I take ‘through the 2024 season’ to mean he becomes a free agent at the end of that season in March 2025, or at least whenever or 2024 season ends in early 2025.
After this (2022) season, Payton is under contract for 2 more seasons. That means there is the 2023 off season (roughly Mid Feb through July 2023) and 2024 off season (Feb thru July 2024) that the Saints have the ability to trade him.

TheOak 11-03-2022 07:23 PM
Re: Denver Will Be Payton’s Next Job
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by BakoSaint (Post 962445)
I disagree. NFL teams are worth $5 billion now. I am not an accountant but my rough understanding of net present value and cash flow is that if something is worth $5 billion, probably the next 7 or so years of it are at least half that value due to the time value of money, and the next 1 year is probably about 10%. So the privilege of owning and NFL team for the 2023 season is worth maybe $500 million based on what people are willing to pay to own one indefinitely. Just like you if you leased a new car you might pay 10% of its value to lease it for a year or something. So I disagree with the idea that an owner would wait a year to sign Sean Payton, if they really wanted him, to save a couple draft picks. If they have a coach they don't have faith in, throwing away another year with that coach is very costly in terms of the time value of money. Also they run many risks. The coach they lack faith in may have a lucky year that makes him hard to fire. There may be a scandal or controversy that makes him hard to fire. Sean may take a liking to broadcasting with an extra year. Another team may seize the moment and change Seans mind and make him an offer he can't refuse. Or they may have to fire the existing coach and then a new coach or new mid year interim coach catches fire and they can't let him go without his joining a lawsuit or something. Just like this year McCarthy may be doing too well to fire. We don't know what happens next year. Maybe Andy Reid retires and sure Sean Payton loved the situation in San Diego but suddenly he is offered Maholmes and sees that as more of a sure thing to cement his legacy as the first coach to win a ring with two teams. Maybe Hebert chokes in the playoffs or gets hurt. If a team wants Sean, there is much more value and certainty for them to get him now than to wait 2 years and get him in 2025 because thats a long long long time and that owner may die of a stroke or see Payton coaching the Patriots before its 2025. You don't become a billionaire so you can still patiently wait to pursue expensive hobbies when you are already in your 60's or whatever. Whatever picks they trade for Payton will be gone in 2025 anyway. Payton can say thats the only team he will play for and they can only offer chump change but if we threaten to make them wait 2 years any team will fold because waiting 2 years is untenable.
Your understanding of depreciation is incorrect. For NFL teams, like homes, most appreciate each year.

If you lease a car for a year you pay the depreciation, roughly 20% as soon as you drive it off the lot and for the first year and 15% each year after that for up to 5 years for a total depreciation of roughly 40% over a 5 year period.

BakoSaint 11-03-2022 09:48 PM
Re: Denver Will Be Payton’s Next Job
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOak (Post 962460)
Your understanding of depreciation is incorrect. For NFL teams, like homes, most appreciate each year.

If you lease a car for a year you pay the depreciation, roughly 20% as soon as you drive it off the lot and for the first year and 15% each year after that for up to 5 years for a total depreciation of roughly 40% over a 5 year period.
I know cars depreciate and houses and teams generally dont. I was typing without striving for perfect analogies. Maybe a team is more like a house or a restaurant or a club. But the point is its a very expensive thing to buy, most owners spend most of their life accumulating enough wealth to buy a team. On e they have a team, if they feel the coach is mediocre and the coach they feel can win is available, i dont think they waste 2 years and all their $400 million or whatever of player salary those 2 years accepting losses to save a couple draft picks on acquiring that coach and risk losing him while waiting. Just like teams trade draft picks for players rather than waiting for those players to become free agents, be franchised twice, and then be totally free with no compensation or franchise. Just like colleges often pay buyouts rather than waiting for the coach they want to be free. I dont think anyone is waiting until 2025 to sign Payton. If they want him I think they will come to the bargaining table and I think not waiting 2 years is worth a lot. I am not sure I would want Payton back if the price was 2.5 more years of Dennis Allen first.


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