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2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch

this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; Originally Posted by BakoSaint So for Point A, the contracts we should move on from in my opinion are those of Andrus Peat, Jameis Winston, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, and Taysom Hill. Everyone can have their own opinions but those ...

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Old 06-26-2023, 09:24 AM   #141
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Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch

Originally Posted by BakoSaint View Post
So for Point A, the contracts we should move on from in my opinion are those of Andrus Peat, Jameis Winston, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, and Taysom Hill. Everyone can have their own opinions but those are the contracts that stand out to me. But the exact players are not important, the real question is could we move on from any bad contract if we wanted to. I don't see it as a reasonable defense to say we don't have any bad contracts and we never will have any bad contracts so it doesnt matter. Every team has bad contracts, and when you future caps are already more leveraged than any other team and your bad contracts are getting renegotiated every year to backload more money that will come due if you move on, it makes it hard to get out of a bad contract when and when you have one. The dead cap if we cut those players is as follows: Thomas $32m, Peat $21m, Hill $24m, Kamara $25m, and Winston $15m. Thomas has 3 consecutive years of injury missing 80% of his games overall in that time. Peat averages 12 games played per season his entire career and our oline will never not have instability and injury shuffles that negatively affect every other olineman as long as he is around. Winston is QB whose season has been ended by injuries 2 years in a row playing backup on a team with a youngish starter, a 4th round pick we traded up for, and another backup option in Hill, way too much redundancy for a guy we would bench Andy Dalton to bring back last year. Most people thought the Saints would move on from Peat, Thomas, and Winston this offseason but instead we kept all 3 because it allowed us to hold off the credit card bill one more year. Logic says thats why we did it, not because we love all 3 players. All I see the last few years is we can only move on from our short term deals. Whenever a player is with the team long on a big contract we restructure and backload the contract all to hell and we can never move on because its never cheaper to move on than to restructure if you are so far above the cap you can only afford to live one cap year at a time. The only long term player we could move on from was Armstead and thats because he wasn't washed and the bidding war therefore made it more expensive to keep him. We have a system set up that selects FOR retaining washed players and liabilities.

Kamara's peers McCaffery, Cook, and Elliott have all been cut or traded away. Nobody in this league commits big money to an aging RB whose stats have already begun to decline. Yet here we are with Kamara associated with $25 million dead cap if we move on. And none of those other RBs are in line for 6+ game suspensions. Not only did we not look to reduce the money due to Kamara this offseason, we increase the money due in reality. Kamara would have lost game checks when suspended, but instead we converted 90% of his salary to a bonus due to our cap situation. What that means is his game checks go from about $500,000 to more like $50,000 so we figured out a way to get a declining RB 90% of his pay while suspended for assault, while other teams with similar RBs found a way to move on. Kamara is due to $19 million next year, but don't worry, we can restructure and bring it down to $11 million by guaranteeing him another $8 million even if he commits another assault and making his dead cap number more like $32 million in the 2024-2025 offseason when he will be even older and in a running back by committee.

Taysom Hill is very injury prone over his college and pro career. He is also much older, about Cam Newtons age. He is also a player whose best attributes are power running and special teams returns and coverage, not very safe positions against injury. We tried him as a starting QB and it did not work. Then we tried him as a TE and he got beat out for the #1 gig by an undrafted free agent converted WR. He is dangerous with the ball but he just isn't great at running routes or catching passes. So what are we paying $10-15 million a year for? An injury riddled 33 year old running back who has never achieved 100 rushing attempts but racks up eye popping highlights in a few games against bad defenses while absolutely disappearing in other games? A backup TE who managed 77 yards receiving on the season? A backup QB to take the ball out of our $40 million a year QBs hands when we already have a $10 million backup QB and a 4th round pick backup QB we traded up for?

But I am sorry. The Saints have no bad contracts. All these contracts are wonderful. And if they did all struggle we could easily take the cap hits to move on. Well, either that or we are basically hoarders who maxed out our credit cards and get by telling ourselves that really we are rich because the trash in the living room is all priceless collectables we can't throw away.

The other concern is there are contracts we don't want to get out of now but might soon. Star cornerbacks have a way of being great until they are garbage. See Nnamdi Asamgaugh and Darrelle Revis. Lattimore is getting older and missing more time. The day is going to come when his contract is a liability, and the smart thing to do is to let things come to a natural conclusion at the end of the deal when the cap hit is small. But instead we restructure to backload it more every year. We are probably looking at $30 million dead cap when we need to move on. Likewise we hope Derek Carr is the next Drew Brees but he may also be the next Drew Bledsoe. If he is the latter, I can't see how we will ever be able to afford to move on if a young QB like the 4th rounder we drafted comes to replace him. We will restructure Carr every year and we could be looking at $50 million plus dead cap if we need to move on in 2025 or 2026 after restructures to backload and convert his $30 million salaries in 2024 and 2025.

Point B examples of teams we can't match because they saved money. The Bucs cleaned up their cap before they made their run with Brady, giving them the ability to bring in more stars when they went all-in, yielding them a Super Bowl. The Rams did a similar thing, before they started their run with Goff they had a war chest of cap room. They leveraged to the max over time. But now both the Rams and Bucs have added trophies and are both rebuilding and moving on from expensive players. But also I don't think we will match up well against the Falcons and Panthers this season. They both shed a lot of bad contracts like Ryan, Julio Jones, Deion Jones, McCafferey, etc. The Falcons took some key free agents from us. The Panthers kept their draft picks and have the #1 pick QB.

But lets say every draft pick and free agent we acquired this season hits the lottery and we go to the Super Bowl and have a grueling coin flip match against the Chiefs and threaten to shut Patrick Maholmes out of any more rings in his prime. The Chiefs are $51 million under the 2024 cap. We are $61 million over the 2024 cap. They can out spend us because they have saved. Meanwhile we are maxing out the credit cards to go 7-10. We will get under the cap in 2024 but we will do it by letting go young stars and hanging on to washed up liabilities willing to restructure and add void years.
Bako, your long post conveniently cherry-picks data points to try and prove your opinion that the Saints FO sucks. So much so that you have to reference the greatest QB ever to play in order to try and prove it. You bring up the Rams and Tampa as good teams to follow? The Bucs spent 7 out of 8 seasons finishing last in the conference while the Saints were having great playoff runs. The hired a great mercenary QB and the league gave them a SB with referee help. Same thing with the Rams while they refs took away the Saint's second title with the PI no call in the playoffs. The Rams had multiple seasons with 5 or less wins including a 1 win season while Lommis and Company have never had less than 7 wins in a normal season. Bringing up instances of teams that may be currently in better shape than us does not erase the fact that Loomis has had this franchise at a very extended streak of winning football and avoided being an irrelevant team with one, two or three win seasons his entire time here. It's just amazing the lack of credit and respect you give the team.

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Old 06-26-2023, 01:53 PM   #142
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Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch

Originally Posted by Boston Saint View Post
Yes people do make thoughtful counter arguments Bako, you just refuse to acknowledge them or give them any validity. Additionally when you make statements about the Saints cutting people's feet off and calling parts of their staff the worst in the history of the NFL then turn around and say other user's posts are like arguing with teenagers it's telling about your nature. I always thought Guido was the King when it comes to lacking self awareness...but now I think you might have that crown.
I see the similarities but I don't believe that Bako has had any members leave due to overwhelming frustration yet.
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Old 06-26-2023, 01:57 PM   #143
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Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch

Originally Posted by Boston Saint View Post
Bako, your long post conveniently cherry-picks data points to try and prove your opinion that the Saints FO sucks. So much so that you have to reference the greatest QB ever to play in order to try and prove it. You bring up the Rams and Tampa as good teams to follow? The Bucs spent 7 out of 8 seasons finishing last in the conference while the Saints were having great playoff runs. The hired a great mercenary QB and the league gave them a SB with referee help. Same thing with the Rams while they refs took away the Saint's second title with the PI no call in the playoffs. The Rams had multiple seasons with 5 or less wins including a 1 win season while Lommis and Company have never had less than 7 wins in a normal season. Bringing up instances of teams that may be currently in better shape than us does not erase the fact that Loomis has had this franchise at a very extended streak of winning football and avoided being an irrelevant team with one, two or three win seasons his entire time here. It's just amazing the lack of credit and respect you give the team.
Great response Boston … can’t say I read GPT Chat - HESBSAF
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Old 06-26-2023, 02:39 PM   #144
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Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch

Originally Posted by WW_Who_Dat View Post
Great response Boston … can’t say I read GPT Chat - HESBSAF
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Thanks WW
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Old 06-26-2023, 03:09 PM   #145
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Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch

Originally Posted by iceshack149 View Post
I see the similarities but I don't believe that Bako has had any members leave due to overwhelming frustration yet.
First of all, that's bullcrap, but taking your premise it could be that the remaining members have a backbone and can handle protesting athletes and such without running away from the game and the site.

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Old 06-26-2023, 06:15 PM   #146
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Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch

Originally Posted by Boston Saint View Post
Bako, your long post conveniently cherry-picks data points to try and prove your opinion that the Saints FO sucks. So much so that you have to reference the greatest QB ever to play in order to try and prove it. You bring up the Rams and Tampa as good teams to follow? The Bucs spent 7 out of 8 seasons finishing last in the conference while the Saints were having great playoff runs. The hired a great mercenary QB and the league gave them a SB with referee help. Same thing with the Rams while they refs took away the Saint's second title with the PI no call in the playoffs. The Rams had multiple seasons with 5 or less wins including a 1 win season while Lommis and Company have never had less than 7 wins in a normal season. Bringing up instances of teams that may be currently in better shape than us does not erase the fact that Loomis has had this franchise at a very extended streak of winning football and avoided being an irrelevant team with one, two or three win seasons his entire time here. It's just amazing the lack of credit and respect you give the team.
I would rather we finish last place 7 of 8 seasons and win the Super Bowl the eighth than have 8 frustrating playoff runs where we can't quite get there. We are not the Falcons or Matt Ryan, its not about honorable mentions. I was heartbroken by how we were robbed in the NFCCG vs the Rams but realistically I think we only slightly overmatched the Rams, it was an extremely close game, and the Patriots dominated the Rams in the Super Bowl, so I think we can't say we would have won the Super Bowl if not for that call. We would have played in it, but realistically I think you have have to give the Patriots at least 60/40 odds given their track record and what they did against the Rams. And also if you give credit to Loomis for where he would have got us if not for the refs, you also have to consider the refs point forward, and realize we can't just be good to beat 12 men we need to be great, and I don't think we are going to be great by holding onto the likes of Andrus Peat.

There are many examples of rebuilding not just the Rams and Bucs. I think the reason the Chiefs avoid our strategy with the cap is because the only way they won't contend with Maholmes is if they get stuck in a lot of bad contracts and can't put even a decent team around him. So they let Mathieu go knowing a safety usually will decline at his age. And they traded Tyreek Hill knowing his off the field issues and his aging and relying on speed. So they rebuilt, and they still won it all. Meanwhile the Falcons had about the same record as us last year, while they moved on from Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Deion Jones. Rebuilding didnt hurt them. Meanwhile the Eagles got to the Super Bowl by being willing to absorb big cap hits moving on from Wentz and other veterans to build around a younger QB in Hurts and have the money to add a star WR for him when they needed it. You can say I cherry pick, but its clearly cherry picking to claim we will be the Browns or Lions or Jags if we don't follow Loomis' strategy. The most successful franchises of our era are the Patriots and recently the Chiefs. Both have been willing to move on from vets to avoid blowing the cap. I just don't think we are some amazing innovators while defying the strategy of those winning rings. Loomis' strategy of max cap leverage is no move innovative than his strategy of overpaying an aging RB and guaranteeing 90% of that running backs salary against an imminent suspension for no good reason.
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Old 06-26-2023, 06:42 PM   #147
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Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch

Originally Posted by BakoSaint View Post
I would rather we finish last place 7 of 8 seasons and win the Super Bowl the eighth than have 8 frustrating playoff runs where we can't quite get there.
And those are hardly the only two options available. Many teams get last place 7 of 8 seasons and then do it again for 5 of the next 6 seasons without even making the playoffs. Your viewpoint is that of the entitled fan who doesn't understand how difficult it is to win (especially with the refs and league stacked against you) and doesn't appreciate what the team has accomplished under the current direction. Just my opinion of course.
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Old 06-26-2023, 07:14 PM   #148
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Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido View Post
First of all, that's bullcrap, but taking your premise it could be that the remaining members have a backbone and can handle protesting athletes and such without running away from the game and the site.

Some posters may have left due to the kneeling and pandering but a few members I know were tired of you behaving like an impetuous child and ruining this site. You should own that since many of us have pointed it out but you won't. I feel as though you've dialed it back a bit so good job.
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Old 06-26-2023, 08:06 PM   #149
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Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch

Originally Posted by iceshack149 View Post
I feel as though you've dialed it back a bit so good job.
Agreed
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Old 06-26-2023, 08:37 PM   #150
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Re: 2023 Saints Salary Cap Watch

George (Saintfan) warned us …
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