Re: Can't Guard Mike
 

I think we would all be happy if MT can play this year and ball out for the Saints (maybe not map). Odds aren’t that great right now, however.

I will say that without him, we only win 6 games last year. He pulled that Atl game out of his….well, you know where. So, he was healthy going into last year. This toe is a different, new injury.

The front office apparently worked things out for one more try. If he doesn’t perform the contract seems to be set up to release him. I don’t see his contract as an anchor for a decade. Peat’s re-work is similar. If they don’t perform this year, they will be gone. Same way guys like Armstead left in the past.

Re: Can't Guard Mike
 

Re: Can't Guard Mike
 

I'm curious, what do you believe the odds are that he's ready to play week one?

It might make for a good poll. Percentage chance Michael Thomas is ready to start week one.

0%
1% to 25%
26% to 50%
51% to 75%
76% to 99%
100%

Re: Can't Guard Mike
 

Mainly because if they were good then Allen would have had a more optimistic response. That and past history and father time.

Edit: Sorry, thought you said Why, not What.

I’d give him 33% chance to start opening day.

Re: Can't Guard Mike
 

I thought this response from Allen when asked about Thomas was pretty optimistic, "I expect him to be fully healthy and ready to go." Perhaps it's just me.

That was from this article this week.

New Orleans Saints receiver Michael Thomas making progress in recovery

Re: Can't Guard Mike
 

If he he fails the physical on April 21st I say 0% because he'll get released. If he passes the physical I'll say 100% because they would have to be fully confident he'd be ready to guarantee the bonus. But for right now, I'd put it in the 76% to 99% range.

Re: Can't Guard Mike
 

I think it depends on what you mean by without him. The Saints might actually have won more games last year if they had cut Michael Thomas before training camp and given more reps to replacement and planned their offense more around replacements. It's easy to point to the one game he won for us, but the effect on the 14 games he missed is more subtle. In the long run that would also have opened up money for new receivers and perhaps a draft pick if some sucker team bet on a comeback.

People said last year that if Peat and Thomas did not perform in 2022 they would be gone. They pointed to Peats contract and said this is his last year. I am sure in 2021 the contract looked like they would make that possible, but then the contracts were restructured to defer more money and they became more costly to cut than restructure so we took another chance. I forsee that happening again and again forever. The difference with players like Armstead and Onyemata is we have to get in bidding wars to keep them, so even if there is deferred money, the cost to keep them is still big. If our players succeed, we can only keep about half of them with our cap situation, but the ones who fail we can keep 100%, because once they get deferred money into future years (not just short term rentals) it is always cheaper to restructure and defer on a 1 year basis than to walk away, every offseason, forever. And there is no bidding war so its simple. Thomas and Peat for life.

If Michael Thomas passes his physical, I think there is a 70% chance he will play week 1 and a 10% chance he will play at least 14 games. I think he is like Rashaad Penny or JT Watt or post-rings Terrell Davis. It's easy enough to suit up for a few weeks but he isn't durable any more. I think that is actually worse than paying to cut him, because even if he wins us games when he plays, that just sets us up to get embarrassed in the wild card when he is not there, gives us a worse draft pick, loses us games when he is out because his backup didn't get the starting reps in camp, and wastes money on a formula that doesn't win rings. Romo has no rings. Watt has no rings. Because to lead a team to a ring, you need to be durable enough to take the field in the playoffs.

On that off 10% chance Thomas had a healthy season, it also puts us in a horrible position. If we keep him, we have to bet on him staying healthy with all those past injury skeletons in the closet, and he will demand a big time deal. If we let him walk, we will eat a bunch of dead cap and get nothing in return because his contract has a void clause that makes it like he was cut, not his contract expires, so no tags and no comp picks. But if we resign him to avoid the cap hit, then probably in 2024 training camp he breaks his pinky toe and refuses surgery and we pay him $120 million / 4 years for nothing, which we restructure over and over so that $80 million of it gets deferred to the last year of the deal in 2027, and in 2027 we need to get under the cap so we have to sign a player who has played 35 games in 8 years to a multi-year extension to spread out the pain. And then we start restructuring that contract, until Mickey Loomis swallows the worm and chokes.

Re: Can't Guard Mike
 

I think Allen has embraced/accepted the idea of not playing Thomas until he is fully healthy. I don’t expect that to happen by week 1. Hope I am wrong.

Re: Can't Guard Mike
 

Good question Guido. Like you said he has to pass the physical first. The odds of him starting in week one is probably 76% to 99% because if he can play he is our best option. The team will trout him out rather than wait if they follow the same medical protocol used in the past.

The chances of him playing all the games is 1% to 25%, but closer to 1%. The chance of him playing half the games is 26% to 50%. The chances of him playing four of the games is about 25%. And finally, if he plays the chances of him being dominant is 100%.

Re: Can't Guard Mike
 

You can go on metaphysical “what if’s” all you want. Fact is he won the Atl game with his 4th quarter performance.