Re: Predict the Saints' Record Year 2023
 

Everything you said is highly accurate and I agree that last seasons losses were on DA's poor choices and bad decisions. It's worth mentioning the devastating injuries across the team. But the front office seems to be making better decisions now and have filled in some nice depth pieces. So far the offseason moves have looked impressive...unless you're a national analyst(anal cyst). Almost all Saints fans are enthusiastic again after all the savvy offseason moves made by the Saints front office.

I'm hoping for two things. One: DA learned his lesson about not being aggressive at critical times and hopefully Carmichael gets back the" eye of the tiger" like when he called plays when Payton was out. Even if that mean drafting LSU players. LOL

Two: Learn from from past mistakes and use the fresh insight from the new coaches after a hard reevaluation and long look in the mirror. No more runs between the tackle on 2nd down. Keep your play makers and the field and utilize them.

Last year we didn't have an alpha coach like Payton, and the team was in shambles without a strong willed, OCD, aggressive, dominant alpha male coach. Most of our coaches were lieutenants that needed a spark to energize the team. We need an alpha coach to step up and set the tone like Sean Payton did. It took mild mannered AK getting vocal to fire the team up and start winning some games. Cam and DeMario are leaders not coaches. It should not be players who have to motivate their team.

We missed out on a deep playoff run last year because we fielded a MASH unit and the year before that too. Guido is good to point out that the NFL is a contact sport and injuries happen to every team. However, it feels like our Saints team is snake bit year after year. Recently, we had record setting injuries and also had more players starting in a single season than previously. Anybody know a good snake wrangler?

Re: Predict the Saints' Record Year 2023
 

I am curious if those who blame the 2022 Saints season on injuries nobody could have predicted that won’t happen again in 2023 also expect a healthy Pelicans team to be undefeated / win the west in 2023-2024? To me and I think many other fans who have gotten too downtrodden to still post, the situations with Michael Thomas and Zion Williamson are very similar, except Williamson is a bit younger and has played a bit higher percentage of games the last 3 years. I am hoping that the mirror situation with the Pelicans will force a reset sooner with the Saints, because whatever patience the new orleans fan community had with unlikely recoveries has surely been tested on two fronts this year.

Re: Predict the Saints' Record Year 2023
 

Has he? Zion is a terrific talent but this guy is NEVER on the court. At least MT has an elite body of work in the NFL.

At some point, Zion needs to just go out there and play with the pain. We're talking a tweaked hamstring, not an Achilles. I've seen a few NBA pros go out and play even at 65-70% ... specifically in the postseason .

I'm starting to think it's more mental than physical Zion. You got a** full of money, it's time to show your worth. The Pels needed you vs OKC.

Sorry Bako, didn't mean to go off track with the rant but the Pels got me fired up.

Re: Predict the Saints' Record Year 2023
 

Not named directly K but no mistaking who this is directed at. Indicates a lack of professionalism in all areas is hurting the team … 25 games a year … come on man!

Re: Predict the Saints' Record Year 2023
 

Sorry the link to CJ’s comments didn’t post

https://cdn.jwplayer.com/previews/AuEA0H9w

Re: Predict the Saints' Record Year 2023
 

No problem haha.

In the past 3 years Michael Thomas has played 10 of 50 possible games or 20%. Over his career Zion Williamson has played 28.5 games per season out of 82 possible or 35%, even higher if you only count the last 3 seasons since he only played 24 games his rookie year. It’s great that Michael Thomas was healthy early in his career but for the last 3 years his percentage availability has been much less than even Zion. Since Zion‘s availability has been almost double, I can’t escape that its much more likely Zion plays a full season than Thomas next year, though neither is likely. As far as body of work, its clear both are elite when healthy.

Re: Predict the Saints' Record Year 2023
 

Even if he stays healthy I expect Thomas to be a shell of his former self. He’s a lot older now than back when was a baller. A huge part of his game is his physicality, not a good attribute for an older player who’s been plagued with injury.
One thing not many are mentioning is the huge turnover among our coaching staff. We downgraded in most cases and the lack of continuity will hurt us.

Re: Predict the Saints' Record Year 2023
 

Where did we downgrade in staff? I thought everyone we recruited were pretty well established with good reputations. Maybe I missed something. We basically got rid of Payton's old crew, good and bad.

Re: Predict the Saints' Record Year 2023
 

10-7 with some blind luck.

Re: Predict the Saints' Record Year 2023
 

Under Over line was set at 9.5 for this season, I place a little bet on the over. Earlier I said I thought even if the over under came in at 10 I would bet the over. People setting the line are setting to get people to bet both side given our individual keen analytical skills.

Going over because I think they will win 10 or more, Saints are my team since 67 and just trying show the faith.

Re: Predict the Saints' Record Year 2023
 

Placing my bet the same way, WW. I love the mobile betting now. :D

Re: Predict the Saints' Record Year 2023
 

Practice preparation and being in the right place to take advantage of opportunities given, will take that “luck” every time. As with most things in life you make your own luck, good and bad.

Re: Predict the Saints' Record Year 2023
 

See post #34

Re: Predict the Saints' Record Year 2023
 

K in principle I agree about waiting post draft to see all the players. That would certainly help an informed decision on the teams win lose recoded.

But with our draft position and picks you won’t really know if players selected will be impact players, rotational pieces or stashed on the practice squad.

So if the players we draft have a positive impact on the win loss record more power to Ireland and Loomis. I believe they will succeed again however they go about it.

But my call was made based on current player signings to date, the schedule and a reasonable, granted optimistic, expectation that we will have a healthier roster than the last 2 years.

:chug::chug:

Re: Predict the Saints' Record Year 2023
 

Re: Predict the Saints' Record Year 2023
 

Kay is preaching here!

Re: Predict the Saints' Record Year 2023
 

I'm going 11-6 and a NFC Championship appearance.

Re: Predict the Saints' Record Year 2023
 

Re: Predict the Saints' Record Year 2023
 

I'll check back in after the Mini-camps. I want to see the talent running through something that looks like NFL ball first.

Re: Predict the Saints' Record Year 2023
 

Re: Predict the Saints' Record Year 2023
 

So is he saying NO EXCUSES in 2023 ? And are we are playing big boy football and a small ball division?

I liked our chances LAST season and we saw how that ended :rolleyes:.

Can’t wait :bng:

Re: Predict the Saints' Record Year 2023
 

100% agreement with the above. If they can't turn this around with a soft schedule and a weak division, they don't have any choice but to blow it up and start over with new coaching team and a new look team.

Re: Predict the Saints' Record Year 2023
 

So you have your fans that believe and those that expect the worst. I'm proudly part of the former! I see upgrades at DE and DT. I see our All Pro WR returning. I see a HUGE upgrade at QB. I see the league leading RB in TD's joining the team. I see no chance of not being successful.

:bng:

Re: Predict the Saints' Record Year 2023
 

Re: Predict the Saints' Record Year 2023
 

Why do we have to rebuild if we tweak weakness well? Here's the thing. Team don't necessarily have to rebuild if they keep filling in the regularly lost parts with equal or better replacements. We lose coaches and players each year. Every team does. Like the Patriots, and Green Bay.

Strong organizations lose their key elements faster though because of a high demand for a proven product and stay strong because of a long term detailed
succession plan.

The teams with a strong front office and a vision for the future who build dynasties can remain competitive overall. If their succession plan is ready and prepared to replace every loss with a quality replacement or two, while finding fresh young college minds to bring in with fresh innovative ideas then your team is better prepared for contingencies, which we see much too frequently.

One of the keys is to draft well and know who else is a young talent to keep an eye on in the front office, coaches and players. Mr. Jeff Ireland rocks in the scouting department.

The front office fired that bum Dan Roushar to fix all their problems after last season seasons 7-10 finish. :roflmao: Just kidding! I still have several reservations.

Will Carmichael game plan again like he aggressively built for Drew now with Derek Carr running the offense this year? Will DA take the blinders off and let him run while not holding back the reins. Can DA a grow a pair and play to win?

Re: Predict the Saints' Record Year 2023
 

So, I am updating my projection now that our offseason is complete to 8-9. Overall, I think we had a better offseason than in 2022. We didn't make a big trade up in the draft. We recovered value for Payton. We made at least some of our draft picks at positions of need. We got some value free agents. But we did lose some talent due to our salary cap situation. Preseason looked decent. We did not suffer injuries to key starters. We didn't trade Shaheed to the Eagles for a 5th. Carr looked good. We seem to have depth issues but our rivals in Carolina may have some oline issues.

I still feel Carr is a big risk. There are cases of QBs reaching new heights on their second team like Brees (though he was much younger) or Stafford. But there are a number of QBs who have gone to a second team with high expectations and proved mediocre (Drew Bledsoe, Jim Everett, Carson Palmer), not the answer (Brett Favre, Joe Montana), or disasters (Donovan McNabb, Duante Culpepper, Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, Dalton after Cincy). Its easy to think Carr is so different and that can't happen again. But remember all the hype last year on Russell Wilson? Remember how many forum members cheered when Matt Ryan was traded away from the Falcons to finally not have to face him and how broadcasters looked at Matt Ryan's stats and said this guy can play into his 40's and challenge some of Brees and Brady's records? Remember all the hope last year for how Winston was finally back? We did shut out Derek Carr last season, when he had Davante Adams, who was supposed to be the missing piece who made him a star. A fresh start for QB's does not always work, even though it often always involves 'something' they didnt have before, which in this case is a good defense. But Russell Wilson had a good defense last year, didn't do much. And Carr is going from playing for a string of offensive gurus, including his best season under John Gruden, to playing for Dennis Allen. Also, a string of QBs like Brady, Brees, Manning, and Favre spoiled us to the concept that good QBs can play at an elite level until age 40+ but that may be more of a historic anomaly and QBs slowing down in their early 30's can be common too. It may be a telling stat that in his limited time at QB for the Raiders last year, Jared Stidham had a slightly higher QB rating than Derek Carr. If Carr was really struggling only due to the Raiders being a train wreck, one might have expected Stidham to implode and set interception records in the games he was handed the reigns, but thats not what happened. Maybe Carr just needed a change of scenery and is elite but many he is who he is with a slow decline or maybe this change of scenery is his last gasp of desperation and his healthy and/or talent falls apart.

I also see a big and overlapping risk in coach Dennis Allen. He was Mr. 4-12 in Oakland and finished 7-10 his first season here. I have a hard time betting big on a double reclamation of a head coach who averaged about 5 wins a year and a QB who averaged about 7 wins a year teaming up to win '12 games minimum.' Maybe Dennis Allen finally puts it all together and fields a winner in his 5th season as a head coach, or maybe he is who he is and winning 5 games +/- a few is what he is capable of, or maybe this is his last gasp of desperation and reuniting Dennis Allen and Derek Carr works about as well as reuniting Derek Carr and Davante Adams and the wheels fall off.

Ours starters look pretty good, but our depth is questionable. Our seconds units got outplayed. For two years in a row we have been among the most injured teams and I don't think that is just chance. It has to do with evaluation, conditioning, and roster management. We brought back many chronically injured players like Thomas and Peat. We no longer have Armstead and Landry so thats good. And unlike least offseason we didn't completely raid the thrift store on aging/injury/suspension risk players like Landry, Maye, and Mathieu. But at the same time many of our aging starters like Peat, Thomas, Jordan, Davis, Mathieu, Hill, Kamara, and Maye are a year older and many have an additional injury in their stack of xrays. Many other teams pre-emptively cut a player when the injuries start stacking up even if that player still shows talent, but we have restructured all our contracts so many players are uncuttable due to the cap hit, so the injury risk remains. I expect we will continue to have a lot of injuries until we make more changes with our lousy doctors and gain the cap flexibility to cut players like Peat and Thomas. I expect Thomas will get injured again this year at some point even if he is healthy today, its just very unlikely to miss 40 of 50 games and return to reliable quality production. Its a bad bet. But the biggest risk is the oline where we have minimal depth and most of our starters have injury issues. But don't worry, we draft our oline for their flexibility, so when one starter gets injured, another will slide over, and instead of having new starters at one position we will change our starters at 2 positions, and then be absolutely shocked when a QB or RB goes down next.

From what I can tell, even though we got younger, we are one of the oldest rosters in the NFL by any lists I can find. We also seem to have a lot of older starters, though I cannot find a list by age of starters.

I think there is some risk to our defense with changing coordinators despite a successful run in 2022. It seemed like a mistake to use co-coordinators last year and then this offseason we lost both because we would not commit to either. While its easy to assume our defense will remain top tier, I don't think we can totally be sure when our best defensive players are getting older for their positions and we changed coordinators and our head coach, though a defensive guru, is struggling with how to be an effective head coach and could take his eye off the ball on defense.

The refs are still an issue. The refs consider the 'the no call' to be the worst offenses against their profession in the history of the game by our fans daring to put so much blame on their incredibly challenging profession. Ever since the no call, the refs have done everything they can to keep us out of contention, but last year we kept ourselves out so they didn't have to work quite as hard at it, but still showed bias. At a minimum, the refs are likely to cost us a couple of games, but on the off chance everything goes right and we are a top NFC contender, its likely they will kick into high gear and cost us more. It's possible that voting with Goodell on Thursday Night flexing and extra Thursday Night games will cause Goodell to put in a good word for us with the refs, but I think its more personal than that, and I am not convinced we can have a great record with the refs working against us unless we have a truly dominant team, which I don't see us having with a retreat QB, long time losing coach, and a roster compromised by refusing to rebuild and being unable to keep all our young talent or pursue marquee pro-bowl type free agents (no matter how much money we gave Carr, most don't view him as a top 10 QB).

Our division is weak. Our schedule is weak. But we were 7-10 last year and we added a QB who my median expectation is Bills Drew Bledsoe but with the stats of this passing era in the NFL. So I don't think we are super strong either. So I expect a lot of close games that could go either way, with the refs putting a foot on the scale. I can't look at our schedule and point to 4 games we 'shouldn't' or 'can't' win but I can't point to 4 games we 'can't lose' or that a fan of the other team couldn't mark down that they 'should' win against the 7-10 Saints and their retread Raiders QB. I don't think anyone in our division is poised to dominate and take the division by storm, but this is a division that likely is won with 7-10 wins, and I think all 4 teams could do that, with the Bucs being the least likely. Yes, Carolina's oline looked weak in preseason, but it was fine last year, and they have the #1 pick at QB. The Falcons are a young team and have more players who could take the next step, along with a good oline that can run the ball and a QB who is careful to avoid turnovers. The Bucs are rebuilding, but a few years ago Mayfield was just as good as Carr and younger, and its also not unprecedented for a young QB to have ups and downs, and he has the arm to air it out to his quality receivers. The Bucs could be horrible, they could be 0-17, but they could also beat us, as Baker Mayfield did last year.

Outside our division we play a lot of toss up games against ok teams that could be 50/50 to beat us. Will we be able to stop Richardson and Fields or will they run for a TD on 3rd on 20? Last year we never beat a team with an established QB who was their teams started from 2021 through the end of 2022, while we usually beat teams with less stable QB situations. By that measure we could fair well against Young, Stroud, and Richardson but we would lose against Tannehill, Mac Jones, Lawrence, Fields, Cousins, Ridder twice, Goff, D Jones and Stafford. That would be 10 losses but last year we had one seemingly established QB we played in Carr who actually had his job on the line and was benched by the end of the year, and certainly a few of these guys could end up in the boat or be injured and we never play them. Then again we also lost to a couple unestablished QBs last year, Mayfield and PJ Walker come to mind. I just see our whole schedule as a bunch of toss ups against mostly teams with similar questions to ours, many with some new hope at QB like three with top 4 picks at QB, several with young QBs they hope are the answer who have shown encouraging signs of development like Love, Fields, and Ridder, and some hoping their QBs are finally living up to the promise of their draft status despite past inconsistency like Lawrence after a rough rookie year, Goff after all his ups and downs, and D Jones after taking a step forward last year. QBs like Mayfield, Tannehill, and Mac Jones are at lower points in their careers than Derek Carr, but give any of them one good season and they are seen as a mid-level starter like Carr is now, or give Carr one bad season and he is seen as in danger of becoming a journeyman like they are. Unfortunately, we don't play Arizona this year. Fortunately we don't play SF or Philadelphia (with Hurts) or any of the AFC Elite that would probably smash us all. But what that leads to is having to predict the results of a .500-ish caliber team against 17 .500-ish caliber opponents, those over which that finished much worse than .500 last year having top-4 pick rookie QBs. Its like 17 coin flips. We have an edge at QB experience over many and play in a weak division, but our coach has a career .283 winning percentage, we have a history of injuries and doctor misdiagnoses (would anyone be surprised if Shaheed comes back, plays 2 games, misses the rest, and we later find out the doctors missed an ACL and he was playing on it torn?), and the refs hate us.

So overall, I feel this is an incredibly hard season to predict, but 8-9 feels reasonable to me. I see a wide variety of possibilities and I would not be shocked if the wheels fall off with injuries and Carr and Allen's confidence and we go 4-13 or if everything goes right and we go 11-6. I just can't see us making noise in the playoffs and challenging the best teams. The AFC teams with elite young QBs Mahomes, Burrow, and J Allen are the class of the NFL right now. I can't imagine us competing with them. To do that we would have to beat NFC teams like the Eagles and 49ers which I can't see happening unless they are all missing their QBs. And somehow, if we make the playoffs due to our weak division, we go into the playoffs having never faced one of these 5 elite teams in the regular season. The easy schedule sounds like a blessing, but if we get to the playoffs its a curse, we get there like TCU in the national championship bragging about a possible signature win against the Lions or Vikings. So, with my reason and logic, I don't see this as our year. I wish we didn't sign Carr. I wish we took the cap hits to rebuild and get rid of injury prone players. I don't think this would have prevented us from winning the divison or being exciting to watch, maybe it would be a little less likely but its still a toss up. Honestly, a team with Haener at QB or if we traded for Love or Tyler Huntley or picked up Zappe on waivers we could win this division and make a token playoff appearance too.

Last year I was exactly right predicting 7-10. I know this is negative but at least I am putting my cards on the table. 8-9, thats my call. We will see. I will root for us. This is just how I see it.

Re: Predict the Saints' Record Year 2023
 

Got a Cliffs Notes version, Bako? ;)

Re: Predict the Saints' Record Year 2023
 

I need to update my prediction, as well, given all of the recent developments from

20-0 Baby to ...




20-0 Baby!

Who Dat!!

:bng:

Re: Predict the Saints' Record Year 2023
 

Okay, it took two glasses of zin while occasionally stirring the red beans, but I read it all. I can understand why you came up with the disappointing prediction based upon all of your reasonings. What is near impossible for me to understand is all of the expectations of the worst involved at every level. To give you credit, if I was that convicted in our probable ineptitude I would have put us at two wins and resigned myself to spend the season in some monastery in Arkansas chanting monotonous "who dats". :D

I respect your opinion ... don't agree with 98% of it, but to each his own.

Here's to going into every kickoff with expectations for a Saints victory!

:chug:

:bng:

Re: Predict the Saints' Record Year 2023
 

This from the guy that says he has Bako blocked and after every post Bako makes you smugly say something to the effect of "Let me guess, Bako said something negatively about the Saints?" :rolleyes:

Re: Predict the Saints' Record Year 2023
 

Guess what, ice. I took him AND mapcow off "ignore" today. I saw through multiple replies that both were posting more relevant posts and chose to once again interact.

You can take your smugness and do with it whatever you wish.

:D

So, what's your latest prediction on the Saints record?

:bng:

Re: Predict the Saints' Record Year 2023
 

Two things must happen and we win it all. Carr plays like a pro bowler and both sides of the ball stay relatively healthy.
13-4

Re: Predict the Saints' Record Year 2023
 

Factoring in several things: Overall team health; More creative Offensive playcalling; Somehow finding a way to stop the Rush; Increased Red Zone efficiency; Strength of Schedule; Sweep the Bucs and Kitties; Split with the Clowns (because it happens); Carr becomes the Field Marshal we know he can be playing with a lead...

Reasonably expect a 12-5 season.

Re: Predict the Saints' Record Year 2023
 

That you'll continue to be the neighborhood brat and turn off all the good posters here. Really. So many of us have asked you to be less of a petulant jerk but you continue to irritate many people on here.
We're all fans that love this team. We're mostly friends and sometimes it feels like family. We all have that one family member that makes us groan when they show up to family functions and you're him.
Regarding the Saints, with the "easiest schedule" (for what that's worth) I agree with leilung. 12-5.

Re: Predict the Saints' Record Year 2023
 

I am what I am. No amount of your *****ing will change that, ice.

Re: Predict the Saints' Record Year 2023
 

I’d maybe replace/add Carr be a pro bowler for “Win the TO battle”. We do all three of those things and we get 13 wins. We do 2 of them then it’s a 11 win season.

Re: Predict the Saints' Record Year 2023
 

I know it can sound like a cop out, or a tired, old adage like “any given Sunday “but it wouldn’t surprise me if we suck or if we succeed.

I honestly believe we have a talented enough team that we are guaranteed to win at least four games. That would be a worst case scenario where we have everything go wrong; multiple injuries, lose the turnover battles, have coaching mistakes, miss kicks, and the refs screw us.

For any of those factors that go our way, add 2 wins.

Re: Predict the Saints' Record Year 2023
 

I don't believe that there is a game on our schedule that we can't win. Does that mean I believe we'll win them all? Most likely not, but I don't see us "out-classed" by any of them. Every week come kickoff I am honestly expecting a Saints win. That's why I have to honestly go with 20-0. I just can't look at any individual game and declare that "we're going to lose that one."

Re: Predict the Saints' Record Year 2023
 

Not trying to fight with you Guido, but saying "there isn't a game we can't win" changes as the season goes along. Looking at things 6 days before the first game is different than looking at games coming up in week 9

Re: Predict the Saints' Record Year 2023
 

Not the way I see it, Boston. In week nine it doesn't matter what team we are playing nor what condition we are in as a team I cannot say that I believe we cannot win the game and I will always expect us to win. I have never felt before any game ever that we wouldn't win. It's just the way I'm wired.

I understand that many people can look at a game and expect not to win. That's fine, but not the way I function.