Since Gronk, very few TE have been worthy of a first round pick, IMHO.

And Gronk, Kelce, Graham, and Kittle were all not 1st round picks. Its just the ultimate impossible position to project. Most NFL TE's don't gel with their QB and offense until year 2. Most college TE's and QB's only start for 2 years, and often the TE does not start with the same QB 2 years in a row, plus there are only like 10 games so less time to gel. TE's may take awhile to bulk up when they hit college and may be growing into their size and weight. And then whether they still have the courage to go out over the middle and take big hits when they see what pro defenses are like, that varies. As does the ability to take those hits and stay healthy. So for the same reasons rookie TE's don't gel with their QB/offense in year 1, a college TE may never gel at all completely in college because there are not as many games, not the same QB consistency, not as much practice and time to focus on learning the game and putting in work in the weight room because you are a student athlete. So then you make a 3rd round pick who has the size and athleticism but didnt produce in college, and suddenly they are a better pro than 1st rounder, because college football is just a ****ty way to see if a TE will good at pro football.

I mean, he was arrested. This is more of an example of why being arrested should not be held against someone if charges are dropped. Cops can’t tell a seizure from drug use.

Well my earlier post about taking a TE in the first was in reply to this statement from bako in regards to Graham being detained:

“ The TE is very susceptible to taking brutal hits in the middle of the field while fully extended or lunging to the ground after a catch and defenseless. They are a helmet pinyata, a face teatherball, out there to get knocked around, and its totally unpredictable which small rare number can avoid injury and still perform well, and often they are not 1st round picks.”

Again there is no evidence that Graham’s recent issue was injury related and there is no evidence TEs suffer more head trauma than other positions. Hence the link to a reason not to take them in the first because of injury does not exist.

Then the narrative was turned to say it’s not good to take them in the first because of success rate. Well there are plenty of Marcus Davenports and Sam Darnolds and Andrus Peats that don’t pan out as firsts as well from every position. I’m not convinced it’s a a valid point either. I’d certainly spend a first on a guy I thought was going to become a Kelce, Kittle, or Gronk. But that’s just me and I don’t run an NFL team.

Yeah I guess I oversimplified my position at first. I have long viewed TE as unpredictable for many reasons relating to injury, hesitation caused by injury or near misses, and unpredictability of initial performance. The problem with spending a 1st on a player you think will be the next Kelce, Kittle, or Gronk is that none of them were 1st round picks. The years they were drafted, 1st round picks were Eifert, Howard, and Gresham. Trying to predict someone that is unpredictable when you can predict something else much more predictable for a similar prize is dumb. Its like trying to become a weatherman who specializes in Earthquakes or trying to guess peoples blood type at the fair instead of their weight. Yes, there are busts at every position, but at most positions your chances of success greatly diminish with each round, you might get a 50% hit rate in the 1st round and a 15% in the 4th round. In the end at most positions, half or more of the big stars are first round picks, and half or less are picked later. With TE we actually seem to see a very similar chance of finding a star from the 1st round to the 5th round and most of the big stars are mid round picks, so to me its crazy to spend your 1st round pick there. Even if TE if your last missing piece, you are better off trading back and taking 2 tight ends later because the odds are better.