Who's on the bubble?

Boston Saint · 08-28-2023, 02:55 PM

Originally Posted by BakoSaint

There is no limit to the number of draft picks a team can spend on offensive line or the number of times they can trade back to acquire additional picks. Draft picks used on losers like book, trout man, grayson, etc could have been spent on oline. You can get running backs, safeties, tight ends, and backup qbs in free agency. Jahri Evans, Carl Nicks, Zach Strief, Erik McCoy, Terron Armstead, and Jermon Bushrod were all day 2-3 picks. Offensive line depth is a choice. We chose what having Kendre Miller run into a brick wall and Haener get clobbered in preseason was more important to us than having more oline depth and youth. Out system is to draft a 1st rounder on oline every other year and pay and play them for 10 years whether they are good or garbage and back them up with undrafted players and journeyman who we can blame all our losing seasons on having to play after injuries.

Its not that this isnt the year to move on from Peat. It’s that never is the year to move on. It will always be cheaper to restructure his contract than to take the dead cap hit. If you think he is bad in his 30’s just wait for his 40’s and 50’s.

We extended Andrus Peat in 2020. In the 2020 draft 3rd round the pick after Zach Baun was Jonah Jackson, now a pro bowl Guard.

Wow bako, you really reach for reasons to complain about the Saints. I’ve know Falcon fans that give them more credit than you. Having a serious discussion about the Saints with someone that thinks Peat is going to be on the team for another 10 years is futile.

BakoSaint · 08-28-2023, 03:39 PM

Originally Posted by Boston Saint

Wow bako, you really reach for reasons to complain about the Saints. I’ve know Falcon fans that give them more credit than you. Having a serious discussion about the Saints with someone that thinks Peat is going to be on the team for another 10 years is futile.

Everyone said Peat, Thomas, and Winston were gone this offseason. We kept all 3 because there was a way to restructure and save off this years cap even if it cost us in future years and we needed to get under the 2023 cap. Expecting something different in 2024 in the definition of insanity. We are over the cap again for 2024 and Loomis has been publicly criticized about dead cap and will seek to minimize it on paper with more aggressive restructuring. I hope we get rid of one but the most likely outcome is that all 3 remain Saints in 2024 even if none are healthy and productive. They will agree to take modest pay cuts knowing no other team would offer a cent and that will allow us to pay them in a signing bonus prorated over 5 void years and prevent their dead cap prorated to future years from hitting now. Anyway maybe we will move on from one of these players or maybe we wont but you cant blame me for being skeptical when i wouldnt be any more wrong than the people who said they would already be gone. Every year you can structure a 1 year extension with 5 void years so only 1/3 of the cost hits in year 1 and 2/3 is prorated to void years 2-6. If you do this, it is always cheaper to do it again the next year than to take the cap hit now, on a 1 year basis, in perpetuity. Until I am proven wrong, Mickey Loomis and Khai Harley are the innovators who have brought the concept of a lifetime annuity to NFL roster management.

Boston Saint · 08-28-2023, 04:15 PM

Originally Posted by BakoSaint

Everyone said Peat, Thomas, and Winston were gone this offseason. We kept all 3 because there was a way to restructure and save off this years cap even if it cost us in future years and we needed to get under the 2023 cap. Expecting something different in 2024 in the definition of insanity. We are over the cap again for 2024 and Loomis has been publicly criticized about dead cap and will seek to minimize it on paper with more aggressive restructuring. I hope we get rid of one but the most likely outcome is that all 3 remain Saints in 2024 even if none are healthy and productive. They will agree to take modest pay cuts knowing no other team would offer a cent and that will allow us to pay them in a signing bonus prorated over 5 void years and prevent their dead cap prorated to future years from hitting now. Anyway maybe we will move on from one of these players or maybe we wont but you cant blame me for being skeptical when i wouldnt be any more wrong than the people who said they would already be gone. Every year you can structure a 1 year extension with 5 void years so only 1/3 of the cost hits in year 1 and 2/3 is prorated to void years 2-6. If you do this, it is always cheaper to do it again the next year than to take the cap hit now, on a 1 year basis, in perpetuity. Until I am proven wrong, Mickey Loomis and Khai Harley are the innovators who have brought the concept of a lifetime annuity to NFL roster management.

You’ve not been proven right either. You speak extremes and talk about how Graham had a concussion and how Peat will be on the roster 10 years from now and complain that they drafted Oline picks in first and second rounds rather than 3rd and 4th rounds and go back 2 drafts 15 years ago as if it proves your point.

AsylumGuido · 08-28-2023, 04:37 PM

Loomis has been criticized by some over dead cap that do not have a clue how salary caps work in the first place.

There are two different types of dead money that can occur within an NFL cap. Realized and unrealized. Or you can call them earned and unearned. Unrealized or unearned dead money occurs when a player is traded or released prior to the end of their effective contract. It is in the form of future guarantees that were never offset by time served by the player for the team or payment for services never rendered. The second type of dead money is realized or earned, or in other words, accounting of payment for services fully rendered in the past within later periods, commonly in the form of voidable years. This second type is what the Saints have most commonly leveraged.

Think of the first as bad cholesterol and the second as good cholesterol.

BakoSaint · 08-29-2023, 09:49 PM

Originally Posted by Boston Saint

Wow bako, you really reach for reasons to complain about the Saints. I’ve know Falcon fans that give them more credit than you. Having a serious discussion about the Saints with someone that thinks Peat is going to be on the team for another 10 years is futile.

I will give you some probable numbers for Andrus Peat's restructure/extension in the 2024 offseason. Currently Peat stands to count $13.6 million in dead cap for 2024 and we are $51 million over the cap. $7.4 million of this is previous prorate bonuses assigned to the him for the 2024 cap so we can't erase those but we can prevent $6.2 million prorated to future years from hitting as dead cap in 2024 if we extend Peat next offseason before his contract voids. I am sure Peat and his agent would not say no to $6 million for the year if he finishes as a backup, so take $1 million base salary and $5 million signing bonus prorated over 2024 and void years from 2025-2028, so the base salary $1 million and the prorated bonus portion of $1 million will count against the cap, but $6.2 million will not come due in 2024, so the net cap savings for 2024 will be $4.2 million.

Then in 2025 we will face dead cap of that $6.2 million plus an additional $4 million from the 2024 signing bonus so the dead cap hit will be $10.2 million if Peat moves on. But if Peat extends again in Spring 2025 only $3.7 million of those prorated bonuses will hit but $6.5 million can remain deferred with an extension, so if Peat again agrees to the same $1 million base salary and $5 million bonus prorated over 5 years we can cut the 2025 bill due from $10.2 million to $5.7 million.

But then in 2026 that $6.5 million comes due plus an addition $4 million from the prorated bonus portion of the 2025 signing bonus for a total dead cap hit of $10.5 million. This time $4.7 million is due in 2026 and can't be avoided but $5.8 million can by again signing the same $6 million deal, saving $3.8 million on the 2026 cap.

But then in 2027 that $5.8 million comes due plus $4 million from the 2026 extension for a dead cap hit of $9.8 million. But only $3.8 million of that $9.8 million is due in 2027 and $6 million can be deferred with an extension on the same $6 million deal, keeping Peat's 2027 can number at $5.8 million and saving $4 million on the 2027 cap.

But then in 2028 that $6 million plus the additional $4 million prorated from the 2027 bonus comes due, for a cap hit of $10 million if Peat's contract is allowed to void. But again we can avoid that cap hit with a restructure as only $4 million of the $10 million is due in 2028 and we can sign the same extension deal again to lower Peat's 2028 cap hit from $10 million to $6 million.

From 2029 on this arrangement would achieve a steady state where until we are willing to take a $10 million cap hit to be done with Peat that will look bad in the press as dead cap. We can instead take a $6 million cap hit every year forever in perpetuity instead to retain Peat and claim Loomis is a genius because his is avoiding dead cap and working his magic to get us under the cap each year when the foolish naysayers doubted him. Eventually $6 million will be like nothing in the salary cap, so I think that wisely Loomis will favor this arrangement until he or Peat dies of old age.

K Major · 08-30-2023, 10:06 AM

"If you listen to fans, you'll be sitting up there with them". Buddy Ryan

AsylumGuido · 08-30-2023, 11:03 AM

Originally Posted by K Major

"If you listen to fans, you'll be sitting up there with them". Buddy Ryan

Absolutely!

BakoSaint · 08-30-2023, 06:35 PM

Originally Posted by K Major

"If you listen to fans, you'll be sitting up there with them". Buddy Ryan

Buddy Ryan was a career .500 head coach in the regular season and lost every playoff game as head coach.

It has been widely reported that Mickey Loomis was prepared to trade Sean Payton to the Dallas Cowboys several years ago, but at time he was also managing the Pelicans and had to trade Anthony Davis to the Lakers as he could not afford to keep Davis long term. So, Loomis pulled the Payton trade because he thought the PR hit would be too big from shipping away Davis and Payton in the same offseason. This would seem to contradict the idea that we as fans shouldn't even bother having opinions because management is not concerned. In fact it shows the opposite, that management is so concerned with our opinions that they are trying to guess what those opinions will be in advance. The thing is, one fans opinion won't do much alone, we have to convince others, because teams are worried about what the majority of the fan base will think. At least Loomis definitely is. So as we all share out opinions here its like a massive arena battle for which opinions will become popular, and those opinions will affect decision makers, either forcing them to go along or to go away. I am fighting the long fight with my opinions, and if the results don't change from what we have seen the last two years, they will eventually affect the decisions or who makes them.

K Major · 08-30-2023, 07:42 PM

Originally Posted by BakoSaint

Buddy Ryan was a career .500 head coach in the regular season and lost every playoff game as head coach.

It has been widely reported that Mickey Loomis was prepared to trade Sean Payton to the Dallas Cowboys several years ago, but at time he was also managing the Pelicans and had to trade Anthony Davis to the Lakers as he could not afford to keep Davis long term. So, Loomis pulled the Payton trade because he thought the PR hit would be too big from shipping away Davis and Payton in the same offseason. This would seem to contradict the idea that we as fans shouldn't even bother having opinions because management is not concerned. In fact it shows the opposite, that management is so concerned with our opinions that they are trying to guess what those opinions will be in advance. The thing is, one fans opinion won't do much alone, we have to convince others, because teams are worried about what the majority of the fan base will think. At least Loomis definitely is. So as we all share out opinions here its like a massive arena battle for which opinions will become popular, and those opinions will affect decision makers, either forcing them to go along or to go away. I am fighting the long fight with my opinions, and if the results don't change from what we have seen the last two years, they will eventually affect the decisions or who makes them.

But knew a helluva lot more than the “average” sports fan.

I won’t pretend to know how the cap, drafting and evaluation works at the NFL level. I”ll leave that to the millionaires (Loomis, Hartley, coaches) to stress over.

Criticizing every move Loomis and the front office makes isn’t worth my time.

AsylumGuido · 08-31-2023, 07:50 AM

Originally Posted by K Major

But knew a helluva lot more than the “average” sports fan.

I won’t pretend to know how the cap, drafting and evaluation works at the NFL level. I”ll leave that to the millionaires (Loomis, Hartley, coaches) to stress over.

Criticizing every move Loomis and the front office makes isn’t worth my time.

Paradoxically this appears to be both the purpose and bane of Bako's existence.

08-28-2023, 02:55 PM	#1
Boston Saint 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Nov 2020 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 5,137	Re: Who's on the bubble? Originally Posted by BakoSaint There is no limit to the number of draft picks a team can spend on offensive line or the number of times they can trade back to acquire additional picks. Draft picks used on losers like book, trout man, grayson, etc could have been spent on oline. You can get running backs, safeties, tight ends, and backup qbs in free agency. Jahri Evans, Carl Nicks, Zach Strief, Erik McCoy, Terron Armstead, and Jermon Bushrod were all day 2-3 picks. Offensive line depth is a choice. We chose what having Kendre Miller run into a brick wall and Haener get clobbered in preseason was more important to us than having more oline depth and youth. Out system is to draft a 1st rounder on oline every other year and pay and play them for 10 years whether they are good or garbage and back them up with undrafted players and journeyman who we can blame all our losing seasons on having to play after injuries. Its not that this isnt the year to move on from Peat. It’s that never is the year to move on. It will always be cheaper to restructure his contract than to take the dead cap hit. If you think he is bad in his 30’s just wait for his 40’s and 50’s. We extended Andrus Peat in 2020. In the 2020 draft 3rd round the pick after Zach Baun was Jonah Jackson, now a pro bowl Guard. Wow bako, you really reach for reasons to complain about the Saints. I’ve know Falcon fans that give them more credit than you. Having a serious discussion about the Saints with someone that thinks Peat is going to be on the team for another 10 years is futile.

08-28-2023, 03:39 PM	#2
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,392	Re: Who's on the bubble? Originally Posted by Boston Saint Wow bako, you really reach for reasons to complain about the Saints. I’ve know Falcon fans that give them more credit than you. Having a serious discussion about the Saints with someone that thinks Peat is going to be on the team for another 10 years is futile. Everyone said Peat, Thomas, and Winston were gone this offseason. We kept all 3 because there was a way to restructure and save off this years cap even if it cost us in future years and we needed to get under the 2023 cap. Expecting something different in 2024 in the definition of insanity. We are over the cap again for 2024 and Loomis has been publicly criticized about dead cap and will seek to minimize it on paper with more aggressive restructuring. I hope we get rid of one but the most likely outcome is that all 3 remain Saints in 2024 even if none are healthy and productive. They will agree to take modest pay cuts knowing no other team would offer a cent and that will allow us to pay them in a signing bonus prorated over 5 void years and prevent their dead cap prorated to future years from hitting now. Anyway maybe we will move on from one of these players or maybe we wont but you cant blame me for being skeptical when i wouldnt be any more wrong than the people who said they would already be gone. Every year you can structure a 1 year extension with 5 void years so only 1/3 of the cost hits in year 1 and 2/3 is prorated to void years 2-6. If you do this, it is always cheaper to do it again the next year than to take the cap hit now, on a 1 year basis, in perpetuity. Until I am proven wrong, Mickey Loomis and Khai Harley are the innovators who have brought the concept of a lifetime annuity to NFL roster management.
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,392

08-28-2023, 04:15 PM	#3
Boston Saint 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Nov 2020 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 5,137	Re: Who's on the bubble? Originally Posted by BakoSaint Everyone said Peat, Thomas, and Winston were gone this offseason. We kept all 3 because there was a way to restructure and save off this years cap even if it cost us in future years and we needed to get under the 2023 cap. Expecting something different in 2024 in the definition of insanity. We are over the cap again for 2024 and Loomis has been publicly criticized about dead cap and will seek to minimize it on paper with more aggressive restructuring. I hope we get rid of one but the most likely outcome is that all 3 remain Saints in 2024 even if none are healthy and productive. They will agree to take modest pay cuts knowing no other team would offer a cent and that will allow us to pay them in a signing bonus prorated over 5 void years and prevent their dead cap prorated to future years from hitting now. Anyway maybe we will move on from one of these players or maybe we wont but you cant blame me for being skeptical when i wouldnt be any more wrong than the people who said they would already be gone. Every year you can structure a 1 year extension with 5 void years so only 1/3 of the cost hits in year 1 and 2/3 is prorated to void years 2-6. If you do this, it is always cheaper to do it again the next year than to take the cap hit now, on a 1 year basis, in perpetuity. Until I am proven wrong, Mickey Loomis and Khai Harley are the innovators who have brought the concept of a lifetime annuity to NFL roster management. You’ve not been proven right either. You speak extremes and talk about how Graham had a concussion and how Peat will be on the roster 10 years from now and complain that they drafted Oline picks in first and second rounds rather than 3rd and 4th rounds and go back 2 drafts 15 years ago as if it proves your point.

08-28-2023, 04:37 PM	#4
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,622	Re: Who's on the bubble? Loomis has been criticized by some over dead cap that do not have a clue how salary caps work in the first place. There are two different types of dead money that can occur within an NFL cap. Realized and unrealized. Or you can call them earned and unearned. Unrealized or unearned dead money occurs when a player is traded or released prior to the end of their effective contract. It is in the form of future guarantees that were never offset by time served by the player for the team or payment for services never rendered. The second type of dead money is realized or earned, or in other words, accounting of payment for services fully rendered in the past within later periods, commonly in the form of voidable years. This second type is what the Saints have most commonly leveraged. Think of the first as bad cholesterol and the second as good cholesterol. SmashMouth likes this.
	“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill

08-29-2023, 09:49 PM	#5
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,392	Re: Who's on the bubble? Originally Posted by Boston Saint Wow bako, you really reach for reasons to complain about the Saints. I’ve know Falcon fans that give them more credit than you. Having a serious discussion about the Saints with someone that thinks Peat is going to be on the team for another 10 years is futile. I will give you some probable numbers for Andrus Peat's restructure/extension in the 2024 offseason. Currently Peat stands to count $13.6 million in dead cap for 2024 and we are $51 million over the cap. $7.4 million of this is previous prorate bonuses assigned to the him for the 2024 cap so we can't erase those but we can prevent $6.2 million prorated to future years from hitting as dead cap in 2024 if we extend Peat next offseason before his contract voids. I am sure Peat and his agent would not say no to $6 million for the year if he finishes as a backup, so take $1 million base salary and $5 million signing bonus prorated over 2024 and void years from 2025-2028, so the base salary $1 million and the prorated bonus portion of $1 million will count against the cap, but $6.2 million will not come due in 2024, so the net cap savings for 2024 will be $4.2 million. Then in 2025 we will face dead cap of that $6.2 million plus an additional $4 million from the 2024 signing bonus so the dead cap hit will be $10.2 million if Peat moves on. But if Peat extends again in Spring 2025 only $3.7 million of those prorated bonuses will hit but $6.5 million can remain deferred with an extension, so if Peat again agrees to the same $1 million base salary and $5 million bonus prorated over 5 years we can cut the 2025 bill due from $10.2 million to $5.7 million. But then in 2026 that $6.5 million comes due plus an addition $4 million from the prorated bonus portion of the 2025 signing bonus for a total dead cap hit of $10.5 million. This time $4.7 million is due in 2026 and can't be avoided but $5.8 million can by again signing the same $6 million deal, saving $3.8 million on the 2026 cap. But then in 2027 that $5.8 million comes due plus $4 million from the 2026 extension for a dead cap hit of $9.8 million. But only $3.8 million of that $9.8 million is due in 2027 and $6 million can be deferred with an extension on the same $6 million deal, keeping Peat's 2027 can number at $5.8 million and saving $4 million on the 2027 cap. But then in 2028 that $6 million plus the additional $4 million prorated from the 2027 bonus comes due, for a cap hit of $10 million if Peat's contract is allowed to void. But again we can avoid that cap hit with a restructure as only $4 million of the $10 million is due in 2028 and we can sign the same extension deal again to lower Peat's 2028 cap hit from $10 million to $6 million. From 2029 on this arrangement would achieve a steady state where until we are willing to take a $10 million cap hit to be done with Peat that will look bad in the press as dead cap. We can instead take a $6 million cap hit every year forever in perpetuity instead to retain Peat and claim Loomis is a genius because his is avoiding dead cap and working his magic to get us under the cap each year when the foolish naysayers doubted him. Eventually $6 million will be like nothing in the salary cap, so I think that wisely Loomis will favor this arrangement until he or Peat dies of old age.
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,392

08-30-2023, 10:06 AM	#6
K Major Site Donor 2019 Join Date: Jan 2013 Location: Bedford, TX Posts: 24,831 Blog Entries: 3	Re: Who's on the bubble? "If you listen to fans, you'll be sitting up there with them". Buddy Ryan AsylumGuido and SmashMouth like this.

08-30-2023, 11:03 AM	#7
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,622	Re: Who's on the bubble? Originally Posted by K Major "If you listen to fans, you'll be sitting up there with them". Buddy Ryan Absolutely! SmashMouth likes this.

08-30-2023, 06:35 PM	#8
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,392	Re: Who's on the bubble? Originally Posted by K Major "If you listen to fans, you'll be sitting up there with them". Buddy Ryan Buddy Ryan was a career .500 head coach in the regular season and lost every playoff game as head coach. It has been widely reported that Mickey Loomis was prepared to trade Sean Payton to the Dallas Cowboys several years ago, but at time he was also managing the Pelicans and had to trade Anthony Davis to the Lakers as he could not afford to keep Davis long term. So, Loomis pulled the Payton trade because he thought the PR hit would be too big from shipping away Davis and Payton in the same offseason. This would seem to contradict the idea that we as fans shouldn't even bother having opinions because management is not concerned. In fact it shows the opposite, that management is so concerned with our opinions that they are trying to guess what those opinions will be in advance. The thing is, one fans opinion won't do much alone, we have to convince others, because teams are worried about what the majority of the fan base will think. At least Loomis definitely is. So as we all share out opinions here its like a massive arena battle for which opinions will become popular, and those opinions will affect decision makers, either forcing them to go along or to go away. I am fighting the long fight with my opinions, and if the results don't change from what we have seen the last two years, they will eventually affect the decisions or who makes them.
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,392

08-30-2023, 07:42 PM	#9
K Major Site Donor 2019 Join Date: Jan 2013 Location: Bedford, TX Posts: 24,831 Blog Entries: 3	Re: Who's on the bubble? Originally Posted by BakoSaint Buddy Ryan was a career .500 head coach in the regular season and lost every playoff game as head coach. It has been widely reported that Mickey Loomis was prepared to trade Sean Payton to the Dallas Cowboys several years ago, but at time he was also managing the Pelicans and had to trade Anthony Davis to the Lakers as he could not afford to keep Davis long term. So, Loomis pulled the Payton trade because he thought the PR hit would be too big from shipping away Davis and Payton in the same offseason. This would seem to contradict the idea that we as fans shouldn't even bother having opinions because management is not concerned. In fact it shows the opposite, that management is so concerned with our opinions that they are trying to guess what those opinions will be in advance. The thing is, one fans opinion won't do much alone, we have to convince others, because teams are worried about what the majority of the fan base will think. At least Loomis definitely is. So as we all share out opinions here its like a massive arena battle for which opinions will become popular, and those opinions will affect decision makers, either forcing them to go along or to go away. I am fighting the long fight with my opinions, and if the results don't change from what we have seen the last two years, they will eventually affect the decisions or who makes them. But knew a helluva lot more than the “average” sports fan. I won’t pretend to know how the cap, drafting and evaluation works at the NFL level. I”ll leave that to the millionaires (Loomis, Hartley, coaches) to stress over. Criticizing every move Loomis and the front office makes isn’t worth my time.

08-31-2023, 07:50 AM	#10
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,622	Re: Who's on the bubble? Originally Posted by K Major But knew a helluva lot more than the “average” sports fan. I won’t pretend to know how the cap, drafting and evaluation works at the NFL level. I”ll leave that to the millionaires (Loomis, Hartley, coaches) to stress over. Criticizing every move Loomis and the front office makes isn’t worth my time. Paradoxically this appears to be both the purpose and bane of Bako's existence.