Who's on the bubble?
 

I keep forgetting with the wacky preseason format that cutdown day to 53 is this upcoming Tuesday. Obviously the team has locks for the 53 and locks to be released. But who's on the bubble? Which players can make the 53 with a good performance on Sunday or lose their chance with a poor performance?

SFIAH

Re: Who's on the bubble?
 

Trequan Smith ... Kirkwood has been getting high praise from coaches & Smith hasn't practiced in weeks.
Jonathan Abram ... Ugo looks better (specifically special teams).
Niko Lalos
Smoke Monday ... (needs more reps)

Re: Who's on the bubble?
 

With the addition of Jaylon Smith, I think Zach Baun could be considered a "bubble" player as well.

Re: Who's on the bubble?
 

Lutz may be on the bubble.

Re: Who's on the bubble?
 

I think there is a better than average chance both Lutz and Grupe are carried into the season with the hopes of trading one. At least for the opening week, probably not into the 2nd week.

Re: Who's on the bubble?
 

I don't know about that. That would mean we have to cut another good player to make room for them on the roster. As it is, we are searching hard to find spots for a couple of bubble players.

Re: Who's on the bubble?
 

I think we should focus on upside not just dependability. In this league if you don't have Patrick Maholmes you need to be great not just good to win. I get that some of these guys like Graham, Smith, Kirkwood, etc could be good dependable role players and possibly could be the #1 receiver in Kansas City and win a ring there. But, I would personally prefer to keep younger players like Perry, Davis, Lalos, etc who are still young enough that they have a potential to develop into more. I definitely don't want to keep two kickers. I would rather not keep Peat or Winston but Loomis looks at dead cap as a public shame so he will keep dead end players to hide it. Shaheed has been a great receiver for us and we could have lost him last year due to player roulette with the practice squad. There could also be similar talents other teams cut due to excessive loyalty to long time backups and bust draft picks. I hope we go for some upside. When other players see the guys who hustle in camp make the team not the ones who punched their time card and made tenure on seniority, they will hustle too.

I also think that if we did cut or practice squad guys like Graham, Smith, Kirkwood, Peat, or Winston, it is no lock that they would be signed elsewhere, and they would probably still be only a phone call away if we had an injury and needed them back.

Re: Who's on the bubble?
 

I'm kinda liking what I see from Lalos, but I need to see more...

Re: Who's on the bubble?
 

Definitely something to remember here.

Re: Who's on the bubble?
 

Re: Who's on the bubble?
 

If they wanted to dump salary, Peat, Winston and Lutz are good candidates. Winston to the Cardinals would make sense for the Cardinals. They would give the appearance of not tanking and Winston gets one more chance to start. Lutz to the Broncos would be good for both. I have as much confidence in the rookie as I do Lutz. Lutz at that altitude may set a NFL record. At this point, even if healthy, Peat isn't worth his salary. Can't believe they haven't already cut T. Smith. A surprise may be Roby. All that being said, I full expect Peat, Winston and Lutz to be Saints this season.

Re: Who's on the bubble?
 

Agreed. The dead cap $ point to those you mentioned to be casualties next year or the following.

Re: Who's on the bubble?
 

But next year we will restructure their contracts so the dead cap $ point to them being casualties 2-3 years following, and so on, forever, until either they or Loomis and Harley die. We won't ever make a transaction that costs more than it gains on the immediate years cap, even if its a big savings long term, and this gives players the option to agree to resign for prorated money with lots of void years forever, so that the new prorated money makes it cheaper to keep them the next year, and so on. Everyone's base salary is $1 million and everyone's dead cap hit is $10 million plus.

Re: Who's on the bubble?
 

After this weekend I am indeed backing off the temporary two kicker thought. I figured a veteran guy like Jimmy Graham may be left off the week 1 roster and brought back in week 2, I no longer see that as an option as he would likely be sought after by another team if available. I cannot think of anyone else that would be a great candidate to cut and bring back in week 2 to make room for the extra kicker to allow more time for a trade. Maybe Tre'Quan?

Re: Who's on the bubble?
 

True... we carried Brees' dead cap for a couple of years. It only works if the cap continues to grow. If it shrinks as it did during the covid year, it blows up. It can't go up forever, can it?

Re: Who's on the bubble?
 

It will absolutely continue to grow. With the current broadcast contracts in place it is guaranteed to continue to grow annually for at least ten years, the term of those contracts. And then there will be a new collection of bigger contracts with newer global markets and more platforms to carry the product. The only thing that could prevent it even temporarily would be something like another pandemic that happens, what, once or twice every century? And even that was just a single year hiccup that very team in the league was forced to manage.

Loomis and company decided on this accounting method a decade and a half ago. Anyone that knows anything about cost/management accounting knows that accounting approaches differ and each has their own unique strengths and weaknesses. The one thing they all have in common is that to be successful one MUST be consistent in its application. To take full advantage of the ever growing salary cap the approach being used by Loomis, and a quickly growing number of other franchises, must be used across the board on all contracts. Does it have it drawbacks at times? Sure. Every method does, but this method maximizes the value of the cap as a whole and has shown the ability to keep a team competitive from year to year.

I cannot foresee a scenario where this approach changes short of the death of Gayle Benson and given her current vitality I doubt that's going to be anytime within the next 15 to twenty years. And chances are it will still continue as it has proven to be the new method of choice across the league for obvious reasons.

Re: Who's on the bubble?
 

This here ...

Re: Who's on the bubble?
 

We can "keep" Peat but why would we expect a different result inhis performance or availability?

Get younger and healthier.

Re: Who's on the bubble?
 

Two questions:

1. Do you get better with a younger/healthier backup?
2. Do you save money with a younger/healthier backup?

Everyone gets frustrated with Peat because of availability and money. If he's on the bench then he is hopefully available. And if the money is already sunk whether or not he is cut, then what is the incentive to cut him?

The reason to keep him is that he is close to Pro bowl caliber guard on a left side of the line where we cannot guarantee that Hurst or Penning are going to stay on the field. So, if Peat isn't costing extra money to keep, why not keep him as insurance?

SFIAH

Re: Who's on the bubble?
 

Re: Who's on the bubble?
 

Guys - folks like Peat, Winston, and several others cannot be moved this year due to the way their contracts are structured. This is a topic we need to discuss after this season is over with.

Re: Who's on the bubble?
 

So what really happened to Peat? Why is he so underperforming for such a still young person. Hurst is about the same age. Did he get lazy? Did he lose his motivation somewhere along the way? He wasn't this bad early on. :confused:

Since he's such a detriment rather than a contributing asset, why did SP extend him when we had the chance to move on from him. There were options then in FA. Are there clauses in contracts that void certain provisions in these derelict circumstances?

Re: Who's on the bubble?
 

Re: Who's on the bubble?
 

Injuries. Pure and simple. Decent offensive linemen are few and far between in the NFL today. Peat is not as bad as some imagine. At worst he is a solid backup and there's plenty of teams in the league that would love to have that alone. Being a detriment is a fan based viewpoint. I doubt the team sees him under the same light.

Re: Who's on the bubble?
 

This exact reason is why I believe teams should only restructure and push money back on superstar QB's and not other positions. Peat was a hell of a player when he was extended to big money, like many players the decline often comes quick for various reasons, in Peat's case he got the injury bug.

Re: Who's on the bubble?
 

So Ross basically stated Peat "is who he is" in terms of a player. Looked bad vs Texans & just isn't starting (even when healthy) material at LG.

Then he went on to say he isn't all that impressed with the guys at back up left tackle. Young & Kidd aren't cutting it. At this point, pencil in Throckmorten.

And I tend to agree with Ross that it's a possibility the Saints look elsewhere for "depth" in the trenches after the final 53 are announced across the league.

In a nutshell RJ, Nick U, Triplett, Sean F, Bob R (guys close to the team) all agree that the Oline DEPTH is the weaklink of this 2023 Saints team.

Re: Who's on the bubble?
 

And pretty much the weak link of the vast majority of teams in the NFL. There's simply not much depth available out there. A couple of teams may be releasing a potential upgrade from the tail end of their rosters, but with the Saints sitting at #10 in the waiver order I can't see those players making it past all nine of the needy teams in front of them.

The only positive, I suppose, is that the starting five is probably among the best in the league. Once again, injuries, or the lack there of, is going to be the key. Hopefully some of the young players (Saldiveri, Young, Kidd) we'll have on the roster will develop in time.

Re: Who's on the bubble?
 

Re: Who's on the bubble?
 

Titans cut their only kicker this morning. I guess they'll take the loser of the kicking job from us!

See ya week one!

Re: Who's on the bubble?
 

Niners don’t have a healthy kicker either.

Re: Who's on the bubble?
 

There is no limit to the number of draft picks a team can spend on offensive line or the number of times they can trade back to acquire additional picks. Draft picks used on losers like book, trout man, grayson, etc could have been spent on oline. You can get running backs, safeties, tight ends, and backup qbs in free agency. Jahri Evans, Carl Nicks, Zach Strief, Erik McCoy, Terron Armstead, and Jermon Bushrod were all day 2-3 picks. Offensive line depth is a choice. We chose what having Kendre Miller run into a brick wall and Haener get clobbered in preseason was more important to us than having more oline depth and youth. Out system is to draft a 1st rounder on oline every other year and pay and play them for 10 years whether they are good or garbage and back them up with undrafted players and journeyman who we can blame all our losing seasons on having to play after injuries.

Its not that this isnt the year to move on from Peat. It’s that never is the year to move on. It will always be cheaper to restructure his contract than to take the dead cap hit. If you think he is bad in his 30’s just wait for his 40’s and 50’s.

We extended Andrus Peat in 2020. In the 2020 draft 3rd round the pick after Zach Baun was Jonah Jackson, now a pro bowl Guard.

Re: Who's on the bubble?
 

Wow bako, you really reach for reasons to complain about the Saints. I’ve know Falcon fans that give them more credit than you. Having a serious discussion about the Saints with someone that thinks Peat is going to be on the team for another 10 years is futile.

Re: Who's on the bubble?
 

Everyone said Peat, Thomas, and Winston were gone this offseason. We kept all 3 because there was a way to restructure and save off this years cap even if it cost us in future years and we needed to get under the 2023 cap. Expecting something different in 2024 in the definition of insanity. We are over the cap again for 2024 and Loomis has been publicly criticized about dead cap and will seek to minimize it on paper with more aggressive restructuring. I hope we get rid of one but the most likely outcome is that all 3 remain Saints in 2024 even if none are healthy and productive. They will agree to take modest pay cuts knowing no other team would offer a cent and that will allow us to pay them in a signing bonus prorated over 5 void years and prevent their dead cap prorated to future years from hitting now. Anyway maybe we will move on from one of these players or maybe we wont but you cant blame me for being skeptical when i wouldnt be any more wrong than the people who said they would already be gone. Every year you can structure a 1 year extension with 5 void years so only 1/3 of the cost hits in year 1 and 2/3 is prorated to void years 2-6. If you do this, it is always cheaper to do it again the next year than to take the cap hit now, on a 1 year basis, in perpetuity. Until I am proven wrong, Mickey Loomis and Khai Harley are the innovators who have brought the concept of a lifetime annuity to NFL roster management.

Re: Who's on the bubble?
 

You’ve not been proven right either. You speak extremes and talk about how Graham had a concussion and how Peat will be on the roster 10 years from now and complain that they drafted Oline picks in first and second rounds rather than 3rd and 4th rounds and go back 2 drafts 15 years ago as if it proves your point.

Re: Who's on the bubble?
 

Loomis has been criticized by some over dead cap that do not have a clue how salary caps work in the first place.

There are two different types of dead money that can occur within an NFL cap. Realized and unrealized. Or you can call them earned and unearned. Unrealized or unearned dead money occurs when a player is traded or released prior to the end of their effective contract. It is in the form of future guarantees that were never offset by time served by the player for the team or payment for services never rendered. The second type of dead money is realized or earned, or in other words, accounting of payment for services fully rendered in the past within later periods, commonly in the form of voidable years. This second type is what the Saints have most commonly leveraged.

Think of the first as bad cholesterol and the second as good cholesterol. :D

Re: Who's on the bubble?
 

Your logic is flawed because it implies that keeping a Carson Wentz, Brock Osweiler, David Johnson, Trey Lance, Jared Goff, or Todd Gurley for the length of their bad contract is good because it makes the dead cap hit into the actually good realized earned kind. The truth is that when you have a bad contract the best thing you can do is bail asap so that even if you take a big unrealized cap hit at least you dont let more money get paid or guaranteed and throw good money after bad. Its best to just take your medicine and move on. In reality unrealized dead cap is usually better than realized dead dead cap because it means you moved on quickly from bad contracts instead of using accounting tricks to delay the cost while increasing it in the long run.

Re: Who's on the bubble?
 

I will give you some probable numbers for Andrus Peat's restructure/extension in the 2024 offseason. Currently Peat stands to count $13.6 million in dead cap for 2024 and we are $51 million over the cap. $7.4 million of this is previous prorate bonuses assigned to the him for the 2024 cap so we can't erase those but we can prevent $6.2 million prorated to future years from hitting as dead cap in 2024 if we extend Peat next offseason before his contract voids. I am sure Peat and his agent would not say no to $6 million for the year if he finishes as a backup, so take $1 million base salary and $5 million signing bonus prorated over 2024 and void years from 2025-2028, so the base salary $1 million and the prorated bonus portion of $1 million will count against the cap, but $6.2 million will not come due in 2024, so the net cap savings for 2024 will be $4.2 million.

Then in 2025 we will face dead cap of that $6.2 million plus an additional $4 million from the 2024 signing bonus so the dead cap hit will be $10.2 million if Peat moves on. But if Peat extends again in Spring 2025 only $3.7 million of those prorated bonuses will hit but $6.5 million can remain deferred with an extension, so if Peat again agrees to the same $1 million base salary and $5 million bonus prorated over 5 years we can cut the 2025 bill due from $10.2 million to $5.7 million.

But then in 2026 that $6.5 million comes due plus an addition $4 million from the prorated bonus portion of the 2025 signing bonus for a total dead cap hit of $10.5 million. This time $4.7 million is due in 2026 and can't be avoided but $5.8 million can by again signing the same $6 million deal, saving $3.8 million on the 2026 cap.

But then in 2027 that $5.8 million comes due plus $4 million from the 2026 extension for a dead cap hit of $9.8 million. But only $3.8 million of that $9.8 million is due in 2027 and $6 million can be deferred with an extension on the same $6 million deal, keeping Peat's 2027 can number at $5.8 million and saving $4 million on the 2027 cap.

But then in 2028 that $6 million plus the additional $4 million prorated from the 2027 bonus comes due, for a cap hit of $10 million if Peat's contract is allowed to void. But again we can avoid that cap hit with a restructure as only $4 million of the $10 million is due in 2028 and we can sign the same extension deal again to lower Peat's 2028 cap hit from $10 million to $6 million.

From 2029 on this arrangement would achieve a steady state where until we are willing to take a $10 million cap hit to be done with Peat that will look bad in the press as dead cap. We can instead take a $6 million cap hit every year forever in perpetuity instead to retain Peat and claim Loomis is a genius because his is avoiding dead cap and working his magic to get us under the cap each year when the foolish naysayers doubted him. Eventually $6 million will be like nothing in the salary cap, so I think that wisely Loomis will favor this arrangement until he or Peat dies of old age.

Re: Who's on the bubble?
 

Only caveat is the skill players you want, the great/good ones, aren't typically available in FA. It's an amalgamation of different position groups in the draft. They key is hitting on the talent as the Saints may have appeared to do this year's draft.

Re: Who's on the bubble?
 

Yes but you need balance too. You can't trade away too many picks or you won't hit on enough talent no matter who you pick. Also certain positions are much easier to fill from free agency or udfa than others. Its not so uncommon that an udfa turns into a star RB but its very uncommon at QB. You can get a running back in free agency also who can be quite good and at a discount. Backup QBs in free agency are a dime a dozen so drafting a QB who doesn't have an elite starter ceiling is kind of pointless. You can even find edge rushers cheap in free agency when they have proven they have some inconsistency, like Clowney, much better than you tend to be able to find on oline. It seems really hard to find useful affordable oline in free agency or from UDFA so I think its a key position to invest a combination or 1st and middle round picks to have youth and depth. Most of the best tight ends of all time are middle round picks so ever spending a 1st rounder there is stupid, its only really worked about once a decade across the entire NFL, if that. In general I think the 1st round you go QB, OT, CB, WR, LB, DL because those are high value positions you can sometimes predict. Mid rounds you can continue to add any position but focus on a lot of oline where its hard to get depth, and only draft QBs you feel could start one day. Don't waste mid round picks on kickers, punters, or short backup QBs to sit behind your starter who you financially can't move on from for 5 years. If your team has weaknesses at OG, S, TE, or RB those are prime positions to draft in the mid rounds, so trade back and acquire extra mid round picks.

Re: Who's on the bubble?
 

"If you listen to fans, you'll be sitting up there with them". Buddy Ryan