AsylumGuido

BakoSaint

Your salary cap table actually proves my point. Going from 34.6 in 1994 to 255.4 30 years later in 2024 is actually only a 6.9% average increase annually. Many years the increase was smaller and the cap was completely flat from 2009 to 2013. The pandemic was not a singular one time year the salary cap did not massively increase, it was part of a long pattern that the cap is volatile. And the 2009 recession? Well, do you get the feeling watching the news that there definitely could not be another recession in the near future? By restructuring contracts over 5 years we essentially can on average live in the Year 3 salary cap of that restructure if we give up almost all flexibility to get out of bad contracts. With a 6.9% average annual increase, year 3 gives us 14.3% more cap in return for an old stagnant roster. And meanwhile we get decimated if there is a pandemic, recession, downturn etc. The last few years have been a bonanza but now many streaming services that have been loss leaders are looking to merge and regain profitability. The NFL is desperate to sue and find a loophole to stop services from merging and combining their game licenses because they fear it will reduce competition and lower bids. Once a stock darling asset, ESPN has had massive layoffs and may be sold or spun off. So even without another recession or pandemic, the salary cap could stagnate or fall due to the streaming bubble popping. And then there is the risk of oversaturating the market. The big picture is that long term the salary cap goes up only 6.9% per year with high volatility, and successful franchises have been able to pivot and move on from aging veterans and gotten young QBs, something we can't do.

AsylumGuido

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