What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season

BakoSaint · 05-13-2024, 10:46 AM

Originally Posted by Cruize

The Saints have the most talented roster in the division. Kubiak's scheme will help the offense in massive ways. Carr is going to have a Pro Bowl season. The defense is legit. The Eagles are loaded by I don't have confidence in them pulling it all together. I believe the 49ers are going to take a step backwards. I can see the Saints winning the NFC. Shocking the world AGAIN and beating the greatest QB playing and winning its second Super Bowl.

I wish I was confident enough in our oline to believe that some of them could take a step backwards before being knocked off their feet. How a QB who has never won a playoff game and a coach who has beaten something like two or three winning teams in a 5 year career are going to combine with an extremely makeshift oline where that QB has minimum protection to rely on scheme to get that QB a pro bowl season and win 3-4 straight playoff games, well, it seems highly improbably to me. Why would a QB who has been in the league what 11 years have by far his most consistent season behind the worst oline he has ever played behind? Are offensive linemen just coming into the league a lot more polished and ready to start than ever before and the draft pick will be so good he can cover two rushers while switching to left tackle?

Would you care to also promise that Ryan Ramczyk is going to play 17 games and make the all pro team?

AsylumGuido · 05-13-2024, 11:54 AM

Originally Posted by BakoSaint

I wish I was confident enough in our oline to believe that some of them could take a step backwards before being knocked off their feet. How a QB who has never won a playoff game and a coach who has beaten something like two or three winning teams in a 5 year career are going to combine with an extremely makeshift oline where that QB has minimum protection to rely on scheme to get that QB a pro bowl season and win 3-4 straight playoff games, well, it seems highly improbably to me. Why would a QB who has been in the league what 11 years have by far his most consistent season behind the worst oline he has ever played behind? Are offensive linemen just coming into the league a lot more polished and ready to start than ever before and the draft pick will be so good he can cover two rushers while switching to left tackle?

Would you care to also promise that Ryan Ramczyk is going to play 17 games and make the all pro team?

The best defense that Carr ever had with the Raiders was ranked 25th in the league. Most years they were among the two or three worst. Carr easily played well enough to make the playoffs and win multiple games almost every year had he even an average defense.

Sinner · 05-13-2024, 09:56 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

The best defense that Carr ever had with the Raiders was ranked 25th in the league. Most years they were among the two or three worst. Carr easily played well enough to make the playoffs and win multiple games almost every year had he even an average defense.

But he didn’t, so he didn’t. And he doesn’t so he won’t. Deal with it. Oh that’s right, you do, and you will.

AsylumGuido · 05-14-2024, 11:38 AM

So, what happened to the whole "this season's schedule is going to be so much harder for the Saints" spiel?

Rugby Saint II · 05-14-2024, 12:03 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

So, what happened to the whole "this season's schedule is going to be so much harder for the Saints" spiel?

https://twitter.com/TheSaintsWire/st...10660980855102

Well, an easy schedule was no help last year. They better step up this time around.

AsylumGuido · 05-14-2024, 12:17 PM

Originally Posted by Rugby Saint II

Well, an easy schedule was no help last year. They better step up this time around.

There were several teams on our schedule last year that were deemed "easy" that turned out to be pretty good teams. Development of existing players, the addition of new players, and a bit of luck in the health department can easily turn around a team's poor or average performance from one year to the next. On the other hand, teams that were relatively successful one season could really come back down to earth with the loss of a key player here or there through free agency or injury, and/or a bit of bad luck on or off the field

It's hard to place much meaning on the whole "strength of schedule" deal.

BakoSaint · 05-18-2024, 09:54 AM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

So, what happened to the whole "this season's schedule is going to be so much harder for the Saints" spiel?

https://twitter.com/TheSaintsWire/st...10660980855102

It is going to be quite a bit harder if you look at the details:

In 2023 the Saints were expected to have a historically weak strength of schedule: their opponents had a .427 winning percentage the previous season. Yet, expectations do not always usually come to reality, and its common for the real results to regress toward the mean as they say since the best teams are rarely as good and the worst teams rarely as bad as the previous years.

Yet, when the actual 2023 season came to pass, the Saints schedule was about as easy as advertised. I can't find the exact number but I have seen numbers like .449 or .433. It was one of the easiest schedules, not just that season, but in decades. Pre-season strength of schedule is often reported but post-season its much more quiet, I think because the way the numbers usually regress to the mean does not make for exciting stories. Pre-season strengths of schedule show stark differences because the last places teams get to play a bunch of last place teams and the first place teams get to play a bunch of first place teams, but in reality we know the first and last place teams the next season are usually not the same so inevitably that easy schedule is not so easy, except for 2023 Saints and Falcons where it did turn out that way.

But even the final results of your opponents winning percentage does not tell the full story on strength of schedule. Timing plays a role that is harder to factor in. The Saints played a lot of banged up teams and backup QBs in 2023. Their historically easy schedule was probably even easier than it looked when you factor in Tommy Devito, Tyson Bagent, Joshua Dobbs, and Gardner Minshew. They also did not play either Super Bowl team. There were 9 NFL teams with 11 or more wins in 2023 and the Saints only played 1 of the 9.

In 2024 the Saints play a schedule of teams that went .453 last year. This not as easy as .427 going into 2023. Considering .500 is neutral, .453 is .47 below that, and .427 is .73 below that, the 2023 schedule was 55% easier versus the mean.

But strength of schedule tends to revert to the mean, and 2023 was an outlier in not doing that so much. We also know the Falcons added Kurt Cousins and that historically it would be very unlikely for the Panthers to stay so bad two years in a row, but is not taken into account just looking at last years records. And those teams that won 11 or more games last year, where we only played 1 of 9. In 2024 we play 4 of those teams. We also play the Super Bowl Champs on the road. But two games against Carolina, who went 2-15 in 2023, drag down our strength of schedule.

Do we have a fairly easy schedule in 2024? Sure, it looks that way. Maybe it will be the easiest for the year, maybe the 10th easiest if Carolina isn't quite so bad and Cousins improves the Falcons. But, 2023 was historically easy, one of the easiest in the 32 team era. Its not the same. And if our schedule is easier than average all it means is a lower draft pick if we are mediocre and some remote chance of a road wildcard birth where we get mopped up by teams that are on a higher level than we have a chance to prepare for in the regular season. Steel sharpens steel. A weak schedule is not a good thing in the NFL. But our schedule is not as weak as it was in 2023.

SmashMouth · 05-13-2024, 02:08 PM

Originally Posted by Cruize

The Saints have the most talented roster in the division. Kubiak's scheme will help the offense in massive ways. Carr is going to have a Pro Bowl season. The defense is legit. The Eagles are loaded by I don't have confidence in them pulling it all together. I believe the 49ers are going to take a step backwards. I can see the Saints winning the NFC. Shocking the world AGAIN and beating the greatest QB playing and winning its second Super Bowl.

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

Seems totally plausible to me.

Who Dat!!

Originally Posted by BakoSaint

I wish I was confident enough in our oline to believe that some of them could take a step backwards before being knocked off their feet. How a QB who has never won a playoff game and a coach who has beaten something like two or three winning teams in a 5 year career are going to combine with an extremely makeshift oline where that QB has minimum protection to rely on scheme to get that QB a pro bowl season and win 3-4 straight playoff games, well, it seems highly improbably to me. Why would a QB who has been in the league what 11 years have by far his most consistent season behind the worst oline he has ever played behind? Are offensive linemen just coming into the league a lot more polished and ready to start than ever before and the draft pick will be so good he can cover two rushers while switching to left tackle?

Would you care to also promise that Ryan Ramczyk is going to play 17 games and make the all pro team?

If we hit on all OL, meaning drafted and UDFAs, there is a chance, albeit small one. You never know, however.

05-13-2024, 10:46 AM	#1
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,347	Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season Originally Posted by Cruize The Saints have the most talented roster in the division. Kubiak's scheme will help the offense in massive ways. Carr is going to have a Pro Bowl season. The defense is legit. The Eagles are loaded by I don't have confidence in them pulling it all together. I believe the 49ers are going to take a step backwards. I can see the Saints winning the NFC. Shocking the world AGAIN and beating the greatest QB playing and winning its second Super Bowl. I wish I was confident enough in our oline to believe that some of them could take a step backwards before being knocked off their feet. How a QB who has never won a playoff game and a coach who has beaten something like two or three winning teams in a 5 year career are going to combine with an extremely makeshift oline where that QB has minimum protection to rely on scheme to get that QB a pro bowl season and win 3-4 straight playoff games, well, it seems highly improbably to me. Why would a QB who has been in the league what 11 years have by far his most consistent season behind the worst oline he has ever played behind? Are offensive linemen just coming into the league a lot more polished and ready to start than ever before and the draft pick will be so good he can cover two rushers while switching to left tackle? Would you care to also promise that Ryan Ramczyk is going to play 17 games and make the all pro team?
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,347

05-13-2024, 11:54 AM	#2
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,574	Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season Originally Posted by BakoSaint I wish I was confident enough in our oline to believe that some of them could take a step backwards before being knocked off their feet. How a QB who has never won a playoff game and a coach who has beaten something like two or three winning teams in a 5 year career are going to combine with an extremely makeshift oline where that QB has minimum protection to rely on scheme to get that QB a pro bowl season and win 3-4 straight playoff games, well, it seems highly improbably to me. Why would a QB who has been in the league what 11 years have by far his most consistent season behind the worst oline he has ever played behind? Are offensive linemen just coming into the league a lot more polished and ready to start than ever before and the draft pick will be so good he can cover two rushers while switching to left tackle? Would you care to also promise that Ryan Ramczyk is going to play 17 games and make the all pro team? The best defense that Carr ever had with the Raiders was ranked 25th in the league. Most years they were among the two or three worst. Carr easily played well enough to make the playoffs and win multiple games almost every year had he even an average defense.

05-13-2024, 09:56 PM	#3
Sinner 1000 Posts + Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 4,065	Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season Originally Posted by AsylumGuido The best defense that Carr ever had with the Raiders was ranked 25th in the league. Most years they were among the two or three worst. Carr easily played well enough to make the playoffs and win multiple games almost every year had he even an average defense. But he didn’t, so he didn’t. And he doesn’t so he won’t. Deal with it. Oh that’s right, you do, and you will. K Major likes this.
Sinner 1000 Posts + Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 4,065

05-14-2024, 11:38 AM	#4
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,574	Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season So, what happened to the whole "this season's schedule is going to be so much harder for the Saints" spiel? Twitter

05-14-2024, 12:03 PM	#5
Rugby Saint II Bounty Money $$$ Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: 5800 Airline Dr. Metairie, LA. Posts: 24,133	Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season Originally Posted by AsylumGuido So, what happened to the whole "this season's schedule is going to be so much harder for the Saints" spiel? https://twitter.com/TheSaintsWire/st...10660980855102 Well, an easy schedule was no help last year. They better step up this time around. Sinner likes this.

05-14-2024, 12:17 PM	#6
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,574	Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season Originally Posted by Rugby Saint II Well, an easy schedule was no help last year. They better step up this time around. There were several teams on our schedule last year that were deemed "easy" that turned out to be pretty good teams. Development of existing players, the addition of new players, and a bit of luck in the health department can easily turn around a team's poor or average performance from one year to the next. On the other hand, teams that were relatively successful one season could really come back down to earth with the loss of a key player here or there through free agency or injury, and/or a bit of bad luck on or off the field It's hard to place much meaning on the whole "strength of schedule" deal.
	“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill

05-18-2024, 09:54 AM	#7
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,347	Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season Originally Posted by AsylumGuido So, what happened to the whole "this season's schedule is going to be so much harder for the Saints" spiel? https://twitter.com/TheSaintsWire/st...10660980855102 It is going to be quite a bit harder if you look at the details: In 2023 the Saints were expected to have a historically weak strength of schedule: their opponents had a .427 winning percentage the previous season. Yet, expectations do not always usually come to reality, and its common for the real results to regress toward the mean as they say since the best teams are rarely as good and the worst teams rarely as bad as the previous years. Yet, when the actual 2023 season came to pass, the Saints schedule was about as easy as advertised. I can't find the exact number but I have seen numbers like .449 or .433. It was one of the easiest schedules, not just that season, but in decades. Pre-season strength of schedule is often reported but post-season its much more quiet, I think because the way the numbers usually regress to the mean does not make for exciting stories. Pre-season strengths of schedule show stark differences because the last places teams get to play a bunch of last place teams and the first place teams get to play a bunch of first place teams, but in reality we know the first and last place teams the next season are usually not the same so inevitably that easy schedule is not so easy, except for 2023 Saints and Falcons where it did turn out that way. But even the final results of your opponents winning percentage does not tell the full story on strength of schedule. Timing plays a role that is harder to factor in. The Saints played a lot of banged up teams and backup QBs in 2023. Their historically easy schedule was probably even easier than it looked when you factor in Tommy Devito, Tyson Bagent, Joshua Dobbs, and Gardner Minshew. They also did not play either Super Bowl team. There were 9 NFL teams with 11 or more wins in 2023 and the Saints only played 1 of the 9. In 2024 the Saints play a schedule of teams that went .453 last year. This not as easy as .427 going into 2023. Considering .500 is neutral, .453 is .47 below that, and .427 is .73 below that, the 2023 schedule was 55% easier versus the mean. But strength of schedule tends to revert to the mean, and 2023 was an outlier in not doing that so much. We also know the Falcons added Kurt Cousins and that historically it would be very unlikely for the Panthers to stay so bad two years in a row, but is not taken into account just looking at last years records. And those teams that won 11 or more games last year, where we only played 1 of 9. In 2024 we play 4 of those teams. We also play the Super Bowl Champs on the road. But two games against Carolina, who went 2-15 in 2023, drag down our strength of schedule. Do we have a fairly easy schedule in 2024? Sure, it looks that way. Maybe it will be the easiest for the year, maybe the 10th easiest if Carolina isn't quite so bad and Cousins improves the Falcons. But, 2023 was historically easy, one of the easiest in the 32 team era. Its not the same. And if our schedule is easier than average all it means is a lower draft pick if we are mediocre and some remote chance of a road wildcard birth where we get mopped up by teams that are on a higher level than we have a chance to prepare for in the regular season. Steel sharpens steel. A weak schedule is not a good thing in the NFL. But our schedule is not as weak as it was in 2023. Sinner likes this.
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,347

05-13-2024, 02:08 PM	#8
SmashMouth I donated, did you? Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Mandeville, LA Posts: 38,554 Blog Entries: 29	Re: What I'm Realistically Looking For This Season Originally Posted by Cruize The Saints have the most talented roster in the division. Kubiak's scheme will help the offense in massive ways. Carr is going to have a Pro Bowl season. The defense is legit. The Eagles are loaded by I don't have confidence in them pulling it all together. I believe the 49ers are going to take a step backwards. I can see the Saints winning the NFC. Shocking the world AGAIN and beating the greatest QB playing and winning its second Super Bowl. Originally Posted by AsylumGuido Seems totally plausible to me. Who Dat!! Originally Posted by BakoSaint I wish I was confident enough in our oline to believe that some of them could take a step backwards before being knocked off their feet. How a QB who has never won a playoff game and a coach who has beaten something like two or three winning teams in a 5 year career are going to combine with an extremely makeshift oline where that QB has minimum protection to rely on scheme to get that QB a pro bowl season and win 3-4 straight playoff games, well, it seems highly improbably to me. Why would a QB who has been in the league what 11 years have by far his most consistent season behind the worst oline he has ever played behind? Are offensive linemen just coming into the league a lot more polished and ready to start than ever before and the draft pick will be so good he can cover two rushers while switching to left tackle? Would you care to also promise that Ryan Ramczyk is going to play 17 games and make the all pro team? If we hit on all OL, meaning drafted and UDFAs, there is a chance, albeit small one. You never know, however.