BakoSaint

The Saints are $81.5 million over the 2025 salary cap but are actually in a much better position than past years. Cutting Michael Thomas, Andrus Peat, Jameis Winston, and Marcus Maye last year, not restructuring Kamara, and not going 'all-in' in free agency, really helped the picture going forward. The $81.5 million sounds like a big number but can actually be addressed with 3 cuts: Carr, Ram, and Kamara. The Saints could get well under the cap with minimal restructuring. Although some of the moves required would kick the can on some dead money from 2025 into 2026, they would not put the Saints over the 2026 cap, so there would be no need for any restructuring in late 2025 to get under the 2026 cap. Then heading into 2026 the Saints would carry some expiring dead cap, but have some money to spend and really have a totally clean slate in 2027.

Here is how it would work:

2 post-June-1-tag cuts allowed:

Ram: Saves $18 million in 2025 cap. Kicks the can on $12 million dead money to 2026 cap, but also saves $19 million salary in 2026, so net savings of $7 million in 2026 also.

Carr: Now hear me out. I think Carr is a pretty good QB. But he is due $50 million in 2026 and will only want more after that. He is 33 years old. Historically the Favre-Brees-Manning-Brady era was an anomaly and most QBs historically decline a great deal around age 36-38. Also, elite play beyond 36-38 typically only works in a clean pocket passing offense with good protection, whereas Carr excels in an RPO motion Shannahan type offense that is a big more demanding on QB mobility. So my issue is that although Carr is a pretty good QB, we are struggling with a lot of older declining players and wrong fits for our scheme, and by the time we could put the team around Carr that he needs to contend he will be 35-36, and nearer the end of his window. For example Matt Ryan struggled in his age 37 season and retired. Kirk Cousins is in his age 36 season and I think we can see the end coming. Meanwhile if we stick with Carr we will have spent perhaps $30-$140 million extra on his salary in years we couldnt contend to keep him on the roster. And when we finally make the playoffs with a good enough team to beat other good playoff teams and prove whether Carr has what it takes for the biggest stage, its probably 2027, he is 36 years old, and we have committed $140 million to him to find out. Thats if he doesnt get seriously injured before then as a mediocre mobility QB behind our oline. At that stage it may be more appealing to have a younger QB with the success we see from rookies likes Daniels and cheap young players like Darnold and Willis.

By designating Carr a post-June-1 cut we save $30 million off the 2025 cap, kick the can on $29 million to 2026, but save $50 million in 2026, for a net savings of $21 million 2026. We can see what we have in Rattler and Haener in 2025, and if we have nothing, we will have a high draft pick and lots of money to spend.

I can see the argument to keep Carr also, and a scenario could be worked around that, but I just think overall the timing isn't right for our relationship with Carr, as we need to clean other aging players off the cap like Ram, Jordan, Lattimore, and soon Kamara and Hill, just as Carr is probably reaching his last few years to contend at a high level and needing a solid oline to do so.

If we did keep Carr, the savings from Restructuring Carr is $31m, $1m more savings than declaring him a Post-June-1 cut. But if we do that we face $60m dead cap in 2026 if we decide to move on, which could be pushed mostly to 2027 if we use the post-june-1 tag in 2026 (a viable option), or if we keep him in 2026 we pay $50m in salary in 2026 and then have to decide if we want to sign him to a new contract for 2027 or eat like $40m or so dead cap when he walks in 2027. And every year he gets a year older.

For Restructures, we would only need to restructure the following young players who I dont think we have plans to cut any time soon: McCoy, Granderson, Ruiz, Werner, Shaheed. These restructures save $24 million so less than 1/3 of our cap savings comes from restructures.

For normal pre-June-1 cuts we make up a big chunk of savings. This is the best form of savings because it kicks no money down the road, its pure savings past 2025.

Alvin Kamara: Cut saves $19 million. Kamara is due $25 million. He will be 30 going into 2025, we should be a rebuilding team, and it is very rare for running backs to be consistently productive in their year 31 season and beyond, so let him go get his money from some contender, maybe win some playoff games in 2025, and have them regret his contract in 2026-2027. The 49ers are regretting paying CMC now. That is the future if we keep Kamara, especially behind our oline.

Marshon Lattimore: Cut saves $11 million in 2025 and $18.5 million salary in 2026 with no dead money kicked to 2026. We are deep at CB and Lattimore is always on the injury report. Kool Aid is better than Lattimore on PFF. Lattimore with be a health gamble for a contender going forward. With Adebo, Kool Aid, Taylor, etc I dont think we need a 50/50 health CB who when healthy is only like a mid-70's pff score guy, no longer elite, and declining. If Rico Payton has to play here and there if we get injuries, I think thats fine, and without Lattimore we will have less injuries.

Cameron Jordan: Cut actually costs $4 million in 2025. Actually it may only cost $2.5 million as the spreadsheet may not understand his guaranteed roster bonus correctly. But even with the cost its the right thing to do. Jordan is due $12.5 million salary for 2025 and is a non factor who could make this decision for us by retiring anyway. We dont need to spend $12.5 million on a backup running down DE. In the long run we save $12.5 million by cutting him but in the short run $15 million of dead cap that would otherwise hit in 2026 hits in 2025 if he is cut. Therefore the short term cap loss for a long term gain. I know Jordan may be a clubhouse leader, but his value is more like $4 million, so unless he will take a true pay cut to that number it does not make sense to keep him. He might get $4 million or more as a broadcaster, so it may make sense for him to retire anyway. Continuing to play could actually hurt his reputation and future post-football earnings.

Taysom Hill: Cut is basically cap neutral for 2025. Taysom Hill is a very fun player but his role in the offense is to be the punching bag over the middle and at the line of scrimmage and he will be 35 years old in 2025, and 36-37 when we are more ready to contend. His contract is due to expire in 2026 anyway. Cutting him saves $10 million salary in 2025 but accelerates $9.7 million in dead cap from 2026 to 2025. I understand he is a fan favorite and if he was willing to take a pure pay cut down to $5 million rather than $10 million I could see keeping him around. I don't think any other team would pay him $10 million and if they would we should trade him to a contender.

Jamaal Williams: Cut saves $1.6 million. Saves $3.2m salary but accelerates $1.6m dead cap from 2026 to 2025. According to PFF Williams is actually an ok backup RB, so we could keep him, especially if he will take a pay cut more down to his realistic market of about $2m. But he has no upside and will not improve with age.

Khalen Saunders: Cut saves $4 million in 2025 salary and roster bonuses but accelerates $1.4 million in dead cap from 2026 void to 2025. Net savings $2.6 million in 2025 and $1.4 million in 2026. We could keep him if his production merits but I would rather force Bressee to prove he was worth the pick, and get a higher pick in 2026 if Bressee cant.

Foster Moreau: Cut saves $3.9 million in 2025 salary and roster bonuses but accelerates $1.4 million in dead cap from 2026 void to 2025. Net savings $2.5 million in 2025 and $1.4 million in 2026.

Cedrick Wilson: Cut saves $2.9 million in 2025 salary and roster bonuses but accelerates 0.5m in dead cap from 2026 void to 2025. He is not outplaying Tipton so I would rather invest in a younger receiver or try someone else in whatever system we have.

Juwon Johnsons contract voids and should be allowed to. He has not lived up to his 2022 growth. He could likely be brought back for $2m or less if we wanted to.

I would let Chase Youngs contract expire. He is playing relatively well but not great enough to earn a scary risky monster deal. If we wants to remain on another short term moderately priced deal I could see it, but we may be better off to see what Foskey can do. Turners contract expires but we might be able to bring him back cheap. Honestly we have better luck with late round or UDFA defensive ends and may be better brining them in than trading up in the 1st round.

Many of these players could be kept if they agreed to true salary reductions.

For now I would keep Davis and Mathieu as clubhouse leaders. But I have us keeping them without a restructure, so we pay the price now, and dont face a larger dead cap if we need to move on, they retire, or their contracts expire in the future. I don't think restructuring older players to kick the can is smart unless a team is needing to win now and doesnt care about the future, or needs to free up money to take other dead cap hits for other future savings.

That is all the changes. Here are the net numbers.

Currently we are $81.5m over the 2025 salary cap.

These moves free up $107m giving us $25.5m free cap space to sign picks and make a few free agency moves and extensions. Or giving us a little flexibility to keep a player I suggested cutting.

We do kick the can on $62m to 2026 and beyond via a combination of Post-June-1 tags and restructures. $41m of this is dead cap from Carr and Ram which will be our final financial obligations to them and be $41m freed up for 2027. We currently are $35m under the 2026 cap so that $62m would put us $27m over. Except that with all the regular cuts where we remove salaries and bonuses scheduled to be paid in 2026 and accelerate dead cap due to hit in 2026 voiding contracts to 2025 instead, we save a massive $125m in additional 2026 dollars. So overall this plan would put us $98m under the 2026 cap. Plenty of money to extend great young players, though I think we would have a better long term cap situation if we wait to 2027 to pursue major free agency deals.

Thats $98m UNDER the 2026 cap going into 2025. And we would still have Rattler, Haener, Olave, Shaheed, the whole oline, all the secondary except Lattimore including 3 solid corners that Lattimore is no longer clearly better than, all the linebackers, Granderson, Bressee, Shepherd, Foskey. In the draft or free agency we could address RB, TE, and depth at DL, oline, and WR, but honestly we are not winning a ring in 2025 unless Rattler is Mahomes, so we don't need to replace everyone in one year. And positions like RB and TE can be addressed after the 1st round so we could go oline in the 1st round. Our cap situation would basically just be carrying that $41m dead money from Carr and Ram in 2026 and then we are totally free and clear with a clean cap in 2027. If Rattler or Haener turns out to be a star, we could go all-in in 2027 and get them any free agent we want. If they don't, we would likely have high draft picks in 2026-2027 and could build a team around Arch Manning or whoever.

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saintsfan1976

We're 2-2, not 2-10

BakoSaint

Yes but we are $81.5m over the 2025 cap. The second most spendy team in 2025 cap in the NFL is the Browns at $3.5m over the 2025 cap, so we are spending 95% of the entire NFL's future over budget spending to achieve mediocrity. We are paying Kobe Steak Prices for School Cafeteria Hamburger. Its not sustainable and its not success. We need a reset.

Not only are we 2-2, we are 2-2 with an 0-2 streak, 3rd place in our division, injuries stacking up because we are trying to play smash mouth football with one 34yo mouth smasher and a bunch of speedy powder puffs, and things are trending to below .500 not above. Even if we finish 9-8 its not success.

Ultimately the goal is to win championships, and I dont think we win those carrying so much cap for guys like Ram and Jordan who need to retire. So we need some level of rebuild to clean up the cap.

Part of the point is that this sort of rebuild was not possible last year. We had to restructure most players to get under the cap. Carr's salary was guaranteed. Anyone we cut came with giant dead cap hits. We had no options. This year if this continue to decline we do have an option. We can get out of bad contracts and get under the cap. Its good to have options. If we get on a winning streak and win 10 games we dont have to go this route. But its good to have the option if we lose 10 games.

Follow this line and click over to 2025 to get a sense of our cap situation compared to the rest of the league. Nobody else is going over future caps like we are, and the teams that are not doing it are the ones going to the playoffs. Do you want to go to the playoffs, ever? If we restructure everyone to get under the cap and just kick the can, more of the same will lead to more of the same.

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space

Rugby Saint II

It looks like you put an awful lot of work into this. I can definitely see your points for cutting costs. However, there's a few names on there I would really like to see restructure and stick around. I do like the idea of the youth movement. Well done!

Sinner

All of these amazing details aside, and on a significant side note, we (the fans, or some fans) are learning the hard way, that you can’t use a swiss army knife (#7) to jack up a broken bus.

AsylumGuido

Waste of time even trying to read all of this crap.

Sinner

And yet… you did. 🤪

Cruize

Good read. If the team misses the playoffs, it's all very possible. I will say, the offense without Carr and Kamara is unknown at best but most likely putrid. Throw in a new Head Coach. Maybe another new offensive scheme. It doesn't fit what the organization has done for the last 15 years.

Sinner

If we miss the playoffs, we’re back at year one of what will essentially be a 16 year (and counting) “rebuild”. And y’all wonder why I get frustrated…

Danno